Before you go crazy about Hillary Clinton's big momentum on display here in Pa, just a few things to consider:
1) The race for the Democratic nomination is a 50-state competition, and going into it, you would have handicapped Pa. as one of the worst of those 50 for Barack Obama, maybe the worst. His weakest voting blocs have included the elderly and union households. Pennsylvania is the third-oldest state in the nation, the most heavily unionized, and one of the most economically distressed.
Given the demographics, which is a bigger surprise? That Obama once trailed here by 20 points, or that in the end he lost by only 10 points. Bill Clinton didn't need to win Utah to become president, John Street didn't need to win Port Richmond to become mayor of Philadelphia. Any Obama strategy for the nomination would aim to get the most delegates and votes nationwide -- knowing that you would surely lose Pennsylvania.
Which he did. As expected. And, yes, he still leads in delegates and votes -- all because HE won the states he was expected to win, and needed to win.
2) Obama came to Pennsylvania after a weak showing in a state with similar demographics, Ohio. And after his loss in the Buckeye State, Obama really was hit with the kitchen sink, most of it not new activity but dirt-digging by political opponents in both parties into his past associations, including former pastor Jeremiah Wright. In spite of that, exit polling suggests that Obama actually dramatically improved his standing with the voters that cost him Ohio, most notably voters over age 60 and white males in general. But as noted in 1), Pa. has A LOT of voters over 60, more than Ohio.
3) Clinton's main argument as pertains to Pennsylvania is that it's a November battleground state, and that she'd be a better fall candidate here than Obama. Perhaps -- she'd almost certainly run a little stronger in the Pittsburgh area. But most experts think the state will be won or lost in the Philadelphia suburbs, where McCain is also more popular than the typical Republican. And Obama won those Philadelphia suburbs with more than 60 percent of the vote (at least according to the exit poll). UPDATE: That previous sentence proves not to be correct -- I'd strikethrough if I knew how to do that with the new blogging software. Anyway, it looks like Clinton won a narrow victory in the four suburban counties, fueled by a big margin in Bucks. Not all suburban counties are created equal -- Bucks is mostly blue-collar Clinton countrt from Levittown on south, while Chester County, which Obama won, is affluent and exurban
I think too often we get caught up the day-to-day, whether it's a heated debate or a new gaffe or a bowling score of 37. Truth is, the story line in Pennsylvania was cast long before 4/22/08.
Will Bunch, a senior writer at the Philadelphia Daily News, blogs about his obsessions, including national and local politics and world affairs, the media, pop music, the Philadelphia Phillies, soccer and other sports, not necessarily in that order.
E-mail Will by clicking here.
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