UPDATED: Quagmire! | Philly

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Monday, April 21, 2008

UPDATED: Quagmire!

I'm not big on making election predictions because:

A) They're always wrong, not just by me but by everybody.

B) There's too much horserace coverage already.

That said, there's one thing that seems impossible to avoid about 32 hours before the polls FINALLY close here in Pa. And that is this, that there is virtually no way that Barack Obama can win here. I don't know the exact margin of victory, but a Hillary Clinton triumph seems certain.

You can say that the polls -- and they seem to come out by the minute -- are inconsistent, but they seem clear on one thing: Obama has never topped 45 percent in any of the surveys. And we've seen in the vast majority of primary states so far that last minute undecideds tend to break for Clinton.

Why that? It's complicated. Race probably is a factor -- people who don't really want to back Obama but won't make it official until the privacy of a voting booth -- but so is the fact that Obama is the lesser known quantity of the two, and if he hasn't swayed people over seven weeks he probably won't change their minds tomorrow, either.

And I think a Clinton win tomorrow of more than 5 points -- less certain, but likely -- moves everyone onto North Carolina, and Indiana, and West Virginia, and Kentucky, and Oregon, and Montana, and South Dakota, and Puerto Rico, and Denver...

Yeeeaahhhhhhh!!!!!

It's a quagmire. Giggity, giggity!

UPDATE: Having said all that, here's a fascinating (first-ever) blog post from my former next-door neighbor out in the critical Pa. suburbs -- a lifelong Clinton fan and supporter (and she's got the pictures to prove it) who's pulling the level for Obama tomorrow. Hmmmmm.

Anyone else have a prediction for tomorrow? Make it here.

Posted by Will Bunch @ 11:22 AM Permalink | 17 comments

Comments

Comment removed.

Posted 11:55 AM, 04/21/2008

E.Plebnista

I couldn't help but notice that Quagmire isn't wearing a flag lapel pin. Why doesn't Quagmire believe in the American flag?

Posted 11:58 AM, 04/21/2008

montani semper liberi

I predict the race will be over this week. Hillary cannot win PA by more than 5-10 points, but she needs at least 20 points to convince uncommitted superdelegates to stay uncommitted any longer for the next round of contests.

Posted 11:59 AM, 04/21/2008

jeffreyg61

Clinton reaches 57 tomorrow. The reason undecideds are 'breaking' towards Clinton is because the 'undecideds' are in her demo. African Americans are less undecided than the general population. They are steadfast in support of Obama. Whites are more likely to be undecided and are more inclined demo to break for Clinton. It's not racism, just demos.

Posted 12:01 PM, 04/21/2008

SteveMG

Obama has a lot to say besides hope change hope change, but you don't have any interest in real issues to listen. If he had nothing to say, people would have stopped showing up in January.

Comment removed.

Posted 12:25 PM, 04/21/2008

jimmymack

Was it the lousy TV reception she got from all the tin foil headware in your house that made her move?

Comment removed.

Posted 01:45 PM, 04/21/2008

LeeN

I'm In Wyndmoor...Montgomery County. I think its going to be really close.And the suburbs especially the bedroom suburbs like mine, will go for Obama

Posted 02:27 PM, 04/21/2008

Kimberly

I do not have a prediction. I do urge everyone to vote and I ask everyone to vote their hopes for what this Country can be, and not vote based on their fears or cynicisms. Hope and the elbow-grease Americans put into achieving those hopes have been our Country's greatest strengths since that fate-filled day in 1776.

Posted 02:27 PM, 04/21/2008

Kimberly

Posted 03:46 PM, 04/21/2008

montani semper liberi

Well, either racism is probably a factor (and Will didn't suggest it was the only one), or racism entirely disappeared from Pennsylvania overnight. Which is it TPD?

Posted 05:23 PM, 04/21/2008

George Tomezsko

My prediction for PA: Clinton 55 percent, Obama 45 percent. The Boy Blunder has peaked. Now, an aside to LeeN RE: "bedroom suburbs like mine, will go for Obama:" don't count on it. In the past few weeks, his Marxist political philosophy and agenda have become clearer, so much so his support is beginning to peel away.

Posted 05:27 PM, 04/21/2008

James TL

Obama's loss will be a combination of factors. Racism coupled with his preceived inexperience along with Clinton's name recogntion will outplay Obama's elloquent speech-making and integrity. I believe the race is over anyway. Remember that this is not a winner-take-all election. Clinton won't be able to amass a high enough delegate total at this point. If the delegates vote for whom they originally supported, it will be McCain vs. Obama this November (that being said, there is no guarantee that will happen). No reason to worry about who wins that yet although in my humble opinion I believe that most people realize we need a change from our current policies and vote to change course. Most people know we cannot continue down the road we have been on the last 7 years.

Posted 01:49 AM, 04/22/2008

yobill626

Yeah, Obama's support is peeling away. What was his fundraising total in April --- $41M? PUH-LEEZE! It is strange that the current Clinton stronghold of SW/PA is the area that was pretty upfront with their dislike of her at the end of Hubby's Presidency.

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About Will Bunch

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Will Bunch, a senior writer at the Philadelphia Daily News, blogs about his obsessions, including national and local politics and world affairs, the media, pop music, the Philadelphia Phillies, soccer and other sports, not necessarily in that order.

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