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===]]] Same evidence you clowns had when you said Bush was stupid. [[[===
This is funny that this is your response to my asking why someone would formulate a conclusion with no evidence.
Where did I say that Bush is stupid? (Here's a hint, I never did.)— Talking point sleuth- ===]]] What will it take for you to realize the stupidity of Obama? [[[===
I don't think Obama is stupid. I think he's an imperfect candidate - and better than Romney.
What is your evidence that he's "stupid." Or do you just formulate conclusions without evidence?— Talking point sleuth - Same evidence you clowns had when you said Bush was stupid.And he is not imperfect. He is just flat out wrong on everything. Still waiting for your excoriating post on Benghazi screwup. 0bummer will soon be living in Hawaii. Thanks goodness.
— georgel - Nov 5: Mitt Romney still earns 50% support in Virginia just before Election Day.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters shows Romney with 50% of the vote to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and another one percent (1%) is undecided.
— Fisher - Fisher, so why didn't Wilder endorse Romney?— montani semper liberi
- Former Gov. L. Douglas Wilder, who backed Democrat Barack Obama for president in 2008, did not endorse Obama or Republican Mitt Romney in an opinion column released days before the election.
"I have campaigned for and supported the president in the past and many people now want to discuss his job performance with me," Wilder writes in a column for Reuters.
"They often note that Obama ran as a moderate — and that is the man they threw their support behind in 2008. But some look back and say that he has governed as a left-of-center liberal who did not keep the focus squarely on jobs and economic recovery.
-- IF a strong Governor (Wilder) who backed Obama before, backs out, what does that state about VA, Obama's campain and how liberal Obama really is? Wok and TPS how liberal are you, that you want cameras on every street corner, rationed healthcare, fewer dollars in your pocket, another four years of 8% unemployment? What will it take for you to realize the stupidity of Obama?— Fisher - ===]]] If that's the case, why aren't we taking into account the lack of polling with cell phone- only voters. [[[===
But that is what Silver does. It's all data - including Iggy's impression of lawn signs. I have noticed fewer Obama lawn signs in my neighborhood this year than four years ago - and I there's actually one Romney sign (a huge mansion even fancier than most of the beautiful Victorians here).
The bottom line about PA is the huge gap in registered voters. That's a lot for Romney to overcome. May depend mostly on turnout in Philly. Speaking of which - gotta go start distributing leaflets now.— Talking point sleuth - If Obama wins, it will because the MFM hid all details of his dereliction of duty/malfeascance regarding Benghazi-Gate. And so "revenge" will be admininstererd accordingly (to borrow a certain Community Organizer's recently used word).— teardownthisfishwrap
- Thanks for a heads up of what we'll all be hearing from the Mental Patient Party for the next few weeks.
— wokmaster - It might not be a bias in the polls, but a bias in the electorate.— Mr. Smith
- Actually, wokkie - Silver favors Obama but he's pretty centrist, pretty libertarian, and someone linked up with the Chicago school of economics. And I wouldn't totally dismiss what you can tell from lawn signs in such a key area of the Philly suburbs. Still, the poll data are the poll data, and while there is a chance of systemic bias in the polls (Silver puts it at something like 15% more or less precisely the same chances of what he gives a Romney electoral college victory because the only way that he wins is if there's: (1) a systemic bias in all the polls, (2) a more significant bias on only some of the polls).
And for those who are inclined to dismiss Silver for being a librul - I again offer this site. Dude's a hardcore libertarian and his projection for the popular vote tracks very closely with Silver's. It would stand to reason, then, that his analysis would have similar implications for the electoral college vote.
http://pollyvote.forecastingprinciples.com/— Talking point sleuth - Excuse me, that should have said that he's viewed as a librul by our conservative friends. I don't care what his politics are, personally, because he backs his forecast up with raw data. I disagree with the lawn sign theory. If that's the case, why aren't we taking into account the lack of polling with cell phone- only voters. How many young people (Democrat demographic) have landlines these days?
I didn't know he was a libertarian. I must be reading too many right wing blogs lately.— wokmaster - I don't doubt that Nate Silver will have the most accurate snapshot of what a telephone media poll would result on Tuesday morning. I do doubt that the most accurate media telephone poll will with certainty track the actual voting results come Tuesday evening.— Mr. Smith
- Iggy -
==]]] Here's the dirty secret behind these polls -- they are oversampling D's. [[[===
The polls generate random samples. If you aggregate all the polls together, you have a very robust sample size. If there is a systemic bias in the polls, which taken together have a wide variety of methodologies for acquiring samples, it is not likely the reason you attribute. It is possible that all the polling outfits are deliberately manipulating samples, I guess, just as it is possible that wearing a tin foil hat will enable you to communicate with aliens, I guess.
If Romney wins it will be interesting to see how such a prevalent bias in the polls could have occurred. Bias due to sampling methodology is unlikely, however - and there has never been in the past any such bias reflected in poll outcomes.
I hope for your sake you have more than that to hang your hat on, Iggy.— Talking point sleuth - sleuth - I've been reading Silver's 538 blog also. He breaks down all of his calculations. You're wasting your breathe explaining his methodology to these people. They argue that Silver is a librul, so his polls must be biased. And you're trying to talk poll calculus with someone who's predicting the outcome based on lawn signs. This is why I prefer to quote Real Clear Politics - because they are center (maybe a tiny bit right center). — wokmaster
- When did Barry ever have 35,000 show up at a rally in Pa.?— CD75
- Any Dems wanna go with me tonight? I'm going to local cemeteries to "get out the vote" (write down names). Who's with me? I'm buying the beer...— Hamlet
- Wokmaster making statistical inferences about independents from a sample of 2.
You're getting close to Nate Silver territory there!— Mr. Smith - "Hamlet - so you are admitting that the Philadelphia print news market really serves as an extension of the Democratic party."
Well, the Republican party has gotten so extreme that you would have to be stupid, ignorant and insane to support them (oh, yeah, sorry) and reporters are educated people - not that I can vouch for their sanity, though.— Hamlet - Something tells me you'd be singing a different tune if the poll numbers were reversed. I looked at the link you posted...it's just a bunch of people saying that they don't (want to) believe the polls. Don't forget, most of these "Independents" are conservatives who changed their registration after the disastrous Bush years. They are not Independents, they're Republicans. As I already pointed out, the true Independents are breaking for Obama. You can deride their relevancy all you want but they are a more accurate gage of who Independents are voting for this year.— wokmaster
- Here's an example: http://twitchy.com/2012/11/04/cnn-poll-reaches-new-heights-of-absurdity/— IggleFan68
- @Wok -- I think you are about to be in for a very nasty surprise. VA, FL, NH, MI, CO, NC are all going for Romney. PA is a 50/50 tossup, and I would not be surprised at all if it goes to Romney -- I have never seen so many Republican signs/bumper stickers around PA. Romney/Ryan signs are everywhere. Here's the dirty secret behind these polls -- they are oversampling D's. If the poll is within 3-4% point for Obama, it's likely that he LOSES that state. Democrats are NOT motivated the same way they were in 2008 to come out and vote. College students, minorities are nowhere near as engaged as they were 4 years ago. This race is about getting your base out, which is EXACTLY why Romney chose Ryan -- to get his base out to vote on Tuesday. I'm sensing a fairly large Romney victory.— IggleFan68
- We shall see in about 36 hours. I think you, Barone, George Will and Dick Morris are in for a major disappointment. Don't say you weren't warned. Romney might take Florida and should take North Carolina but that's about it. — wokmaster
- @Wok -- Colin Powell couldn't be more irrelevant this year, and Bloomburg is completely irrelevant outside of NYC, who right now doesn't like him very much. Also, if Barry gets voted out this year, his 4 years become a complete waste - similar to G. HW Bush, but even worse because he didn't get ANYTHING done. And G HW Bush has an excuse -- he had a someone legitimate 3rd party candidate who cost him the election. Obama can look in the mirror.— IggleFan68
- "Also, if Barry gets voted out this year, his 4 years become a complete waste - similar to G. HW Bush, but even worse because he didn't get ANYTHING done."
Yeah, but it's a moot point. Looks like Virginia is coming along for the ride also. Might as well start referring to Obama as "Two Term Barry".— wokmaster - Hamlet - so you are admitting that the Philadelphia print news market really serves as an extension of the Democratic party. Good to hear. Keep the Change -- you must be young, Carter was SO MUCH WORSE. Barry = 2nd worst President of my lifetime.— IggleFan68
- I still don't see how Romney wins PA, but it is a heck of a lot closer than it was just a few weeks ago when Bunch was crowing that it was practically impossible. We'll know in 36 hours.— General Turgidson
- Thanks, Daily News! I appreciate you warning my Democratic brothers and sisters that this is not yet in the bag. Pennsylvania Democrats, get out and vote tomorrow!— Hamlet
- Obama loses BIG- Mark it down! Lock it in!
THE WORST PRESIDENT EVER- BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA
7.9 % unemployment
Gas prices sky rocket
— Keep The Change - I see bannedrepublican's read his advance copy of Wednesday's talking points.... http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83302_Page5.html— montani semper liberi
Will anyone from Pni cover the Benghazi fiasco? "NO"- "Sandy victims beg for help". When I first saw this headline I thought it was a story about Sandra Flukes many boyfriends who discovered the reason Sandy was desperate to get condoms:
http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/video-sandy-victims-beg-help_660345.html— Phishface - "why would they do that if they weren't nervous?" . . . . . LOL, kinda like asking why trolls come to this blog.— montani semper liberi
- mephisto,
The answer is no. But he does get a free subscription. He gets his big bucks being a "Senior Fellow" at Media Matters.— Phishface - The Obama campaign is sending Bill Clinton to PA today, why would they do that if they weren't nervous?— jmc
- Looks like Barry's word to help the victims in NY was every bit as good as his word to keep Chris Stevens and those in Benghazi safe. "We'll leave nobody behind. Now, uh, I gotta go. See ya! And don't forget, vote for Revenge!" http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/video-sandy-victims-beg-help_660345.html— bill a,tkins
- We shall see.
How any logical human can vote for such an abstract failure as Obama is beyond me. The WORST PRESIDENT EVER- BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA.— Keep The Change - The only way somebody could say that is if they are 4 years old or younger. The American people are smarter than Fox Nation thinks. — wokmaster
- Mitt's not here to try to win PA for himself. He'ls dancing to Karl and the Koch btothers' tune to try to get votes further down the ballot. So if plain ole coal miner millionaire Tom Smith can beat Bob Casey, Repubs can keep obstructing legislation in the Senate.— KG
- obummer is toast. Bank on it. The only question is if Bunchie boy will go completely nuts when he does.— georgel
- Lol. Real Clear Politics now has Virginia flipping to Obama. That makes 303 electoral votes. See ya tomorrow night, georgie porgie...and have your excuses ready!! — wokmaster
Comment removed.- Voters who identify as 'Tea Party' are not Independents. They are a concentrated, radicalized version of Republicans.
True Independents (Bloomberg, Powell) are breaking for Obama.— wokmaster 
I hope you didn't accept your whole paycheck this week Bunch.— 835union- Do they pay Bunch money for this "journalism"?— mephisto
- N-owe— Mr. Smith
- Not even Bunch can give anything positive about a 2nd zerOO term so for months he's been going with the tired old Dem mantra...negative— keapitreal
- Your Obama campaign has been so negative.
It doesn't get any more negative than "No".
Nothing to offer in a second term, so you won't have one.— Mr. Smith - It's a simple answer to a simple question. Mitt's toast here. Now quit your whining and get to work on your "Mitt was robbed but he also wasn't a true conservative" laments. Make them good, you'll be repeating them to yourself for four more years. — ahab
- It'll be back to basics after tomorrow - "the mainstream media, the left wing pollsters, the B.L.S., the climate scientists, the dead voters, the electoral college oversampled democrats", blah, blah, blah. — wokmaster
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