If you've been paying any attention to the GOP primary race and now President Obama's ever-improving poll numbers against the weak Republican field, you've probably asked yourself, is it too late for somebody to jump in the race (picture a Chris Christie cannonball into the pool of candidates, if you must)?
The short answer is...yes, it probably is too late.
Do the math.
OK, I'm too lazy to do the math, but this guy did and the story is that the filing deadlines for so many states have passed that a candidate who entered now could win every delegate in every primary for which filing is still open, and still not garner enough delegates to take the nomination in Tampa. You can check out his graphic and here's some background:
No matter how you look at it, then, there are or would be enough delegates for a late entrant to possibly get to 1144, or in the more chaotic, yet more likely late entry (if it were to happen), scenario after Tuesday, earn enough support to keep another candidate from getting there, sending the decision to the convention; a brokered, uh, deadlocked convention.
But here's the thing: Who is that candidate? Let me rephrase that. Who is the candidate who can not only successfully enter the race late, but who can also marshal the organization necessary to cobble together enough delegates to take the nomination or throw enough of a monkeywrench into the process and still maintain support in the party to win the nomination at the convention? Let's think about this for a moment. There are people in this race now actively seeking the nomination (and who have been running for president for quite some time) who cannot get on the ballots in some states. And we are expecting someone to come in and immediately be able to beat these deadlines, organize write-in efforts and uncommitted slates of delegates to get within shouting distance of 1144 or a lower total held by the frontrunner.
I apologize, folks. But I just don't see it. There is no silver bullet. There is no white knight.
Notice, I qualified the lead-in to this with a "probably" and here's why. Let's say a strong candidate (probably not Christie, who is so tied to Romney that he wouldn't get in unless the ex-Massachusetts governor gets out) jumped in right now and the others -- Romney, Gingrich, Santorum and Paul -- all stayed in for their various reasons. You could see a scenario in which Gingrich and Romney, on the early primaries, get, say, 600 delegates each and the new guy wins enough late primaries to get 400, and thus forces an open convention. The new guy could point to his late momentum and try to pry delegates from the other four in the later ballots. That would be fun.
Or, about as likely, the Washington Wizards could win the NBA championship.
Clinton was elected the first time because of Perot. He was elected the second time because the economy was on fire. Obama was elected the first time because he was the answer to racial bias. Obama has proven that he wasn't the answer. His only legacy is that he knew how to read a teleprompter.— RufusG
Comment removed.- Will, stop being silly. Real Clear Politics average:
RCP Average 1/5 - 1/29 -- 47.5 45.1 Obama +2.4 Romney vs. Obama.
LONGGGGGGGGGG time to go.— blackhawk90 - Obama is the Worst President Ever- and anyone who votes for the epic failure that is Obama is a complete brain dead moron.
It's like voting for John Street twice....oops Philly Democrats did....."— Keep The Change - More jobs created since 2010 than in entire Bush Administration.— mick-of-the-moment
- bunch, is that a fat joke against christie? So much for stopping bullying. Of course, dems probably meant to only stop gay bullying. Keep bullying asians, conservatives, religious folks, and overweight people.— palmyra21
- Why would the Republicans be looking for any other candidates when they have such strong representatives such as Romney, Gingrich, Santorum an Paul?
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.— Talking point sleuth - Will, America is tired. They tried electing a 'hope and change' and a 'yes we can' candidate. It's too bad that this guy hasn't changed anything nor has he given us any hope. My guess is that he could run against Herman Cain and end up a loser.— RufusG
- Rufus G---"hasn't changed anything"
Bin Laden= dead
Iraq War= over
Health Care= insurance companies no longer able to drop, cancel, deny
for pre-existing conditions
Auto Industry= GM doing well again, cash for clunkers a total success
Terrorist Attacks= NONE! I guess we did not need Cheney/Rummy to keep
us safe
Jobs= more created since 2010 than in entire two Bush terms
Banks= stable again (started under Bush, TARP wisely continued)
Middle East= Quadaffi gone, no US soldiers killed
Boy I can't believe anybody would not have wanted to amend the Constitution to allow "W" a third term.— mick-of-the-moment - Bin Laden=started under Bush
Iraq=agreement was made under Bush to end at the same time
Health Care= +19% in fees this year , you get what you pay for, no free lunch!
Auto Industry= Ford doing very well, took nothing. Cash for C, hurt the used car market
Terrorist Attacks=started under Bush, Obummer kept Rendition, Gitmo, wire tapping, etc. All that is all fine now, great job Barry!..LOL!!
Jobs= more have been created now that we have a Congress who says NO!
Banks=Bush's TARP paid back
Middle East= So, no US soldiers killed is the measurement of success...WOW, based on that we've had very few successes
Boy, I can't believe anybody would have not supported and even bashed and hated on the Bush policies...sounds like they were VERY successful..Based on this information looks like nothing has changed. Thanks for pointing that out!!! LOL!!!— sarah89 - Actually Sarah, the bin Laden program was started AND ENDED under Bush. Restarted under Obama.
— Les Ismore - Sarah - You are so delusional. It's scary to think there are people like yourself who are trying to sell us on the Bush years. Even the guys running for the GOP nomination don't bring up "W". They talk about Reagan ad nauseum but rarely, if ever, mention Bush 43. I seriously wouldn't even know where to start in correcting your revisionist history. I just found it funny that somebody still finds Bush a success when all of the imperical evidence suggests he was the worst president since Hoover. Is that why you "laughed out loud" twice?— wokmaster
- Where is Sarah delusional? OBL was killed with info first gleaned from KSM, who was captured while Bush was in office. Bush set the status of forces agreement that had troops out by end of 2011. Obama actually tried to keep troops in Iraq, but their government said no. Health care insurance reform has done nothing so far to lower premium costs. And Obama's tactics in the war on terror are pretty much from the Bush playbook, Gitmo open, Patriot Act extended, kept Gates as SecDef.— RG
- RG - I really don't know where to start with blind partisians such as yourself - and apparently you haven't read too many of Sarah's posts.— wokmaster
- Start somewhere wok. Otherwise, you're just calling names w/o backing it up. Where am I wrong?— RG
Will Bunch, a senior writer at the Philadelphia Daily News, blogs about his obsessions, including national and local politics and world affairs, the media, pop music, the Philadelphia Phillies, soccer and other sports, not necessarily in that order.
E-mail Will by clicking here.
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