Sunday, August 30, 2015

It's all over but the shouting

It's all over but the shouting

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I'm not Nate Silver or the AP or anything, so I don't have the power or authority to call this thing. But as the 11 o'clock hour grows near, I don't see how Romney could win this thing. As Nate Silver said, Obama's easy path to victory is 4 states: Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio. In those first three states, exit polls projected a solid victory for Obama. He's got a solid lead on Ohio -- although they're counting the votes at a glacial pace -- and it looks like a slightly better than 50 percent chence of winning Florida, which would totally be game set and match. I've been busy writing my story for the paper on how he did it -- but you can safely say that it's a huge black turnout, Latinos, and auto workers.

One huge outstanding question: Who will win the popular vote? If it's Romney, a) will the GOP actively try to somehow prevent Obama from (re-)taking office? and b) since that would be kind of crazy, will the lack of an Obama popular-vote mandate further gridlock in D.C.?

Stay tuned.

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Will Bunch
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