Perception tends to trump reality in politics, and the perception that Hillary Clinton won by double-digits last night is huge for her campaign. I have MSNBC on right now and it's showing a 55-45 percent Clinton victory.
Now here's the reality, from the Pa. Department of State, the official vote counter. With only a handful of precincts out, Clinton is winning by 8.6 percent. Not 10 percent, and not even 9 percent.
As Bill Clinton himself once said, what is the deal?
UPDATE: AP has the margin at 9.3 percent, with a few more votes counted.
Posted by Will Bunch @ 10:35 AM
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49 comments
Obama hasn't won a contest since February. Except...er...Texas, Vermont, Wyoming, and Mississippi.
PLEASE, it's one thing to argue something like who's a better or more annoying candidate, or who is more electable in November. But if you're going to state facts, do try to get them right.
The PA primary has proved what should be obvious: Obama has peaked. Obama hasn't won a contest since February, hasn't won a single battleground state, and has lost seven of the ten most populous states in the nation.
The Obama campaign rightly figures that Clinton gained a dozen or so delegates on him our of the 2024 needed to win, so not such a big deal from that point of view. As a former math teacher, that makes sense to me. Maybe if I had taught psychology, however, I would see this as a large, but not monumental, Clinton victory.
E. Plebnista: RE: "Are you really calling Clinton more genuine and able to relate to the working class than Obama? Yes.
Are you *serious*? Yes, again. Like it or not, many in that demographic simply will NOT vote for a non-Caucasian, especially for president.
"Many white, working class Democrats are pro-life on the abortion issue and support traditional marriage." - Like, for example, Bob Casey who... supported Obama." Trust us pro-lifers on the following: Bob Casey was, is, ansd is likely to remain a "make-pretend" pro-lifer. He only ran using that label to take the abortion issue off the table during his campaign against Santorum. Most pro-lifers saw right through him, but voted for him anyway because Santorum supported RINO Arlen Spector when Spector faced Toomey. Pro-lifers can play hard-ball politics about as well as anyone.
Same here, tightlines. It wouldn't be the first time I've held my nose and voted for the lesser of two evils. My experience is that the Dems always seem to nominate my least favorite Dem candidate, anyway. Carter over Kennedy, Mondale over Hart, Dukakis over Simon, Clinton over Tsongas, Gore over Bradley, Kerry over Clark. Just this once I'd like to see my favorite, but I'll get over it if necessary by November.
"it appears that you are talking out of both sides of your mouth.
Posted by legatus"..............You're right, it does appear that way. My apologies to you and any other rational posters here who fairly question Obama's candidacy.
I don't understand the logic of some people. Because some Democrats voted for Hillary over Barack, they're not going to vote for him in the fall? Trust me, if the tables are (miraculously) turned, I'll be pulling the lever for Mrs. Clinton. Anything to keep McCain out of the White House. Two and a half million people voted in the Democratic primary. That's huge, and does not bode well for Republicans in November. Just because Obama carried 45% in the primary does not mean he will carry only 45% of the votes in the general election. I have a firm belief that Democrats will be united and stand behind whoever our challenger is (well, we pretty much know who it is now).
Will, get ready for President John McCain...Canadians over the Flyers in 5...
"More importantly, had it not been for Philadelphia, which gave a boost to the Obama campaign, Hillary might have had much bigger lead than the substantial one she registered."................Huh? I dare say, had it not been for Philadelphia, would there even be a Pennsylvania (or a United States for that matter)? How telling that you would set Philly apart from the rest of the state as a mere accidental appendage, as if the surrounding burbs and the state would have spontaneously grown to their present form without its ports and rail terminals, its commerce, its tax base, its universities, its labor, and so on. Is this the typical Clintonist logic that the only places that matter in America are the places she's won?
"I don't mind anyone stating rational reasons to reject Obama, if they don't mind rational rebuttal, but it's those who dismiss Obama's supporters as somehow deranged that I find troubling. I'm just looking for clues to this way of thinking." Conversely, and strangely enough, I don't mind anyone stating rational reasons to accept Obama, if they don't mind rational rebuttal, but it's those who dismiss Obama's rejectors as somehow deranged that I find troubling. I'm just looking for clues to this way of thinking. You haven't given me any. Now, since you say that you don't mind ratioal debate on this topic, and yet you go out of your way to paint those opposed to your way of thinking as racist, neurotic, stupid, etc., it appears that you are talking out of both sides of your mouth.
"There is no significant distinction between a 10% lead and a 9.3%." - Ah, yes, the "intellectual" argument from Christine... it's OK for the MSM to spin things if you like the way they're being spun. C'mon now, Christine, if this had been, say, John McCain beating Mitt Romney or Fred Thompson by 9.3% and the MSM was saying "double digit victory for McCain" I have a feeling we'd see a column in the Daily News about the evils of the "Librul Mediuh" and their "love affair" with John McCain. But since it was Hillary and Obama and you're scared to death of facing Obama in the fall, you revel in the incorrect coverage because it suits your partisan, political spin and your desire for the "easier" Clinton candidate. The vacuous nature of your "analysis" is quite evident.
"There is no significant distinction between a 10% lead and a 9.3%." ------- Exactly! There's no significant distinction between Hillary's supposedly "double digit" margin of victory, and single digits! That's what we're saying!!
Will, is this actually a post about a .7% difference? There is no significant distinction between a 10% lead and a 9.3%. More importantly, had it not been for Philadelphia, which gave a boost to the Obama campaign, Hillary might have had much bigger lead than the substantial one she registered. And given that Obama outspent her three times to one (actually, three and a half times to one) 9.3% is extremely impressive.
So if the issue is 'perception' here, the fact that Obama wasn't able to win in PA, and wasn't even able to come close to winning after a huge infusion of capital (the largest campaign expenditure in PA history, I'm told), the 'perception' is that Obama would never have been able to win this state.
.
"Nope...there MUST be something terribly wrong with these folks." ............. I don't mind anyone stating rational reasons to reject Obama, if they don't mind rational rebuttal, but it's those who dismiss Obama's supporters as somehow deranged that I find troubling. I'm just looking for clues to this way of thinking. You've really failed to give me any.
What is it that drives Obama Derangement Syndrome? ....... Two words: Republican sycophancy...
Will, get a hold of yourself man! Obama lost. Let's not spin it. Obama lost. LOST.
Core Democrat, you're partially right. Clinton's McCain's best hope in November. Clinton can't win any of those "red" states in West. PA and NJ arent' as "blue" as they seem and one poll even had it close in NY.
Too much baggage, Bill, fibs et al.
"The anti-Obama folks still can't seem to grasp that the guy has actually won broad American voter support and is still leading at this late stage of the nominating process. This bewilderment is often manifested by the way they tend to rationalize such support - we've heard that it's "cultish", it's a "messiah complex", it's driven by the "Obama-loving media", it's "guilt", or it's just mass hysteria induced by Obama's speaking style. You have to wonder WHY they're in denial. Is it racism? Is it an anti-intellectual bias? Is it a cultural bias? What is it that drives Obama Derangement Syndrome?What is it that drives Obama Derangement Syndrome? Keep in mind that they're essentially writing off 45 to 50% of the entire American elecotrate (according to most polls), and scores of respected political leaders, implying that the Amercian people are no more socially advanced than the citizenry of an Islamofascist dictatorship." Wonder if msl realizes that he just did the very thing that he rails against. He writes off a huge percentage of the American electorate as anti-intellectual, or racist, or suffering from a neurosis, or culturally prejudiced, simply because they don't understand Obama's appeal. I couldn't be that they don't particularly like his policies, character, judgment, personality, etc. I couldn't be that they simply like another candidate better. Nope...there MUST be something terribly wrong with these folks.
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Are you really calling Clinton more genuine and able to relate to the working class than Obama? Are you *serious*? "Many white, working class Democrats are pro-life on the abortion issue and support traditional marriage." - Like, for example, Bob Casey who... supported Obama. Yes, Obama had trouble in those constituencies and I absolutely do expect "both parties" to have problems putting together their "bases," but in the end voters will need to choose between a new direction - be it Obama or Clinton - and four more years of policies that they have been overwhelmingly rejecting. I also am not sure the much-ballyhooed "Catholic vote" will decide to back a man who enthusiastically sought and enthusiastically accepted the support of one of the most prominent anti-Catholic bigots in the country. Not to mention a man who blamed America for 9/11 and Katrina. Wait for those YouTube clips to get "out there" in the national media. But, hey, you'll "cling" to whatever false hope you can. Good luck with that.
PENNSYLVANIA VOTERS,
THANK YOU FOR VOTING FOR HILLARY! SHE IS OUR ONLY CHANCE IN NOVEMBER! THANK YOU!
The anti-Obama folks still can't seem to grasp that the guy has actually won broad American voter support and is still leading at this late stage of the nominating process. This bewilderment is often manifested by the way they tend to rationalize such support - we've heard that it's "cultish", it's a "messiah complex", it's driven by the "Obama-loving media", it's "guilt", or it's just mass hysteria induced by Obama's speaking style. You have to wonder WHY they're in denial. Is it racism? Is it an anti-intellectual bias? Is it a cultural bias? What is it that drives Obama Derangement Syndrome? Keep in mind that they're essentially writing off 45 to 50% of the entire American elecotrate (according to most polls), and scores of respected political leaders, implying that the Amercian people are no more socially advanced than the citizenry of an Islamofascist dictatorship.
E. Plebnista: RE: The “28 percenters” you referred to in an earlier post. Several years ago a pundit (it may have been George Will or perhaps William Buckley) observed that the American electorate as a whole has broken down into four core groups of approximately equal size. On the “R” side, we have 1) social and fiscal conservatives, and 2) social liberals and fiscal conservatives; on the “D” side we see an inverted image of these: 3) social and fiscal liberals, and 4) social conservatives and fiscal liberals. What this election cycle may be revealing thus far is that the splits between these four groups are sharper than ever, which means that BOTH parties will have trouble pulling their constituencies together.
Obama is only ahead in the delegate count because 1) he receives an almost 2 to 1 delegate count in urban areas based on changes by the DNC in the 1980's and 2)voters were deceived by the media and kept in the dark about Obama and his character. And as he has basically no experience, character and judgement is all he has to run on. Had the voters known about the Wright controversy, he would have been out on Day 1! He preaches Unity publically while he listens to Anti-American rhetoric for 20 YEARS privately. This is not the candidate to ask Americans to vote for him to run America! Period! Now Obama is really stretching with his "red state, blue state does not matter" rhetoric! The Voters and the DNC and the Super delegates know it does! And winning the majority of Republican states and losing the CORE Democrat states and KEY SWING states says "You are OUT, Obama." And Loudly! He should drop out now! He needs to give Democrats a chance to WIN in November. He has started to believe his own speech writer's rhetoric! Obama, DROP OUT! This is not a race for the democrat nominee. It is about the General Election! The only one that counts! Democrats want to Actually WIN in November. Drop Out, PLEASE!
I see the Idiot Liberal is now calling himself a Genius. Does anyone else think he's still an Idiot? This contest is far from over and Obama is still leading the delegate count by a wide margin. The democrats will soon resolve their infighting and turn their collective energies towards reminding everyone that good soldiers are still dying in Iraq and Bush's short-sighted policies are leading us into a recession. What were gas prices when Bush took office.. something like $1.70 a gallon? How large is the national debt now? Still headed towards 10 trillion I assume. The people of this country will be reminded of how large a failure George Bush's presidency has been. John McCain would be smart to distance himself from this utter failure but instead has decided to continue his failure. Good luck Mr. McCain you'll need it!
"You only want the "Dems" to continue to hit each other in the vain hope.." Is it really a vain hope? After all, the Democratic Party machinery wants the hitting to stop for the same reason that you believe that George wants it to continue. See Howard Dean for further details.
"that's your Obama-loving media outlets that are doing that." - love the concept that the media is Obama-obsessed and that the evidence is that they're over reporting Hillary's results. The marginalized minority truly lives in a fact-free zone.
E. Plebnista: True enough, but in the meantime, here is something else to mull over: One possible reason for Obama's inability to go beyond his limited set of constituencies, overlooked thus far, is that Democrats also have values voters. Many white, working class Democrats are pro-life on the abortion issue and support traditional marriage. This constituency may not be vocal on these issues and may not give them top priority, but such voters exist. Moreover, while they may not expect Democratic presidential candidates to agree with them on these issues, they do expect those candidates to at least be sympathetic to these concerns. Hillary may be perceived that way by this bloc, whereas Obama is very clearly condescendingly opposed.
George, doesn't that mean that Hillary doesn't have much pull outside of *her* limited constituencies? Oh, right, that doesn't fit the narrative your partisan political viewpoint is desperately trying to spin. Just like the facts don't support a "double digit" victory for Mrs. Clinton. This is called "reality" and you might find yourself a little less unhinged if you'd spent more time in it. You only want the "Dems" to continue to hit each other in the vain hope that the people will decide that they like the 28% policies of the past. Good luck with that.
Hillary isn't propagating the "double-digit" margin... that's your Obama-loving media outlets that are doing that. Take it up with them.
Ah, the whining has only just begun. I'm surprised you didn't scream voter fraud like Johnny Doc probably will. And interestingly, I was handed a flyer outside my polling place with both of their names on it. Overall, it's embarrassing watching the media-types and those well-off in general attempt to assuage their "guilt" with a vote for Obama.
Will's absolutely right. If Hillary is boasting of a "double digit" victory margin, it's only fair for Obama to point out that she's incorrect by almost a full percentage point. Who can deny the psychological distinction between a single digit and double digit victory in describing what happened last night, especially when the suspense centered on the size of Clinton's margin? It's purely a matter of perception, like whether the glass is half full or half empty, but perceptions are all that Hillary can bank on right now.
Superdelegates need to end this in June, per Howard Dean's request. After Super Tuesday, it was touted that "70% of Democrats would be satisfied with either candidate winning". I wonder how much that number has dropped over the last two months.
Clinton's big win will only net her about 20 delegates and still leave her a half million votes in the hole, with a couple of Obama leaning states ahead. Time works against Clinton. In the next two weeks, you can expect her numbers to go down some more in NC and IN. I haven't seen one state where her poll numbers went up for more than a day or two. In the three months between the convention and the election, she'll just hemmorhage voters. Obama is the only one whose numbers go up.
Jeez Will, you are really reaching now. Go home and have a good cry.
Genius-Poti didn't cry too much actually.That was Devorski out there & the only guy in the NHL with enough clout to give Devorski a hard time is.......well no one,come to think of it.
The county-by-county election results map of PA in today's Inky speaks more eleoquently than Will's parsing of percentages. Obama only carried those counties where minorities, especially African-Americans, are concentrated. He clearly has no appeal outside a limited set of constituencies.
"Cannot wait until Hillary takes the lead" - which, of course, is statistically impossible. But, hey, hope that works out for you. Make sure you don't lose your tin foil hat while tilting at those windmills.
In case you didn't notice, Will tilts ever so slightly toward Obama.
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If you scoll down a little, McCain only got 73%! As far as perception, remember Texas. There were two contests, a primary and a causus. they split, but Obama came away with more delegates, yet Clinton is still claiming whe won Texas, when Obama came ahead in to of the three actual measures. Let them delude themselves, this is just proof of why I was a Republican before, and why I am remembering to switch back. But there is hope in the converts and new voters your party gets. Sure as heck aren't a whole lot of people turning to the Republican Party.
Hillary got my vote yesterday (on orders from Operation Chaos) - now I have to re-register back to Republican.
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Give it up Will.By the way,has Burrell passed Utley in the NL MVP race ?
As it turns out, the people who oppose the Democrats at every turn would like to keep Hillary Clinton active in the race. This is a surprise? And they also have "doubts" about a person they would, under no circumstances, vote for anyway. It really is to laugh. You 28 percenters are really something else.
I'm gonna have to agree with the crazies on this one.. this is silly.
"Perception tends to trump reality in politics..." But at a certain point the reality rears its ugly head. Whether by 10% or 8% doesn't matter, Clinton won. Yes, Obama was the underdog here throughout. But to win a general election you have to be able to win in places you were not necessarily expected to. It is starting to look like Obama can no longer get past his "regular" constituency, and that does not bode well for down the road. It may be too late to matter in the nomination, but I think that overall McCain slept well last night, even if he "only" got 73% of the Republican primary votes.
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Will Bunch, a senior writer at the Philadelphia Daily News, blogs about his obsessions, including national and local politics and world affairs, the media, pop music, the Philadelphia Phillies, soccer and other sports, not necessarily in that order.
Will Bunch, a senior writer at the Philadelphia Daily News, blogs about his obsessions, including national and local politics and world affairs, the media, pop music, the Philadelphia Phillies, soccer and other sports, not necessarily in that order.
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