I can't think of anything more clever or more funny than to just come out and say it:
19,480 people in the state of Indiana voted for Mitt Romney for president last night.
I can practically feel the Mittmentum some 900 miles away! That means if you put every Hoosier who cast a ballot for the former Massachusetts governor and put them on a bus and brought them to Philly's vast Wachovia Center for a hockey game, you would fill almost every seat.
That would be a massive throng, clamoring for a slick-backed candidate who left the GOP presidential race three months after his presence inspired about as much excitement as a door-to-door encyclopedia salesman while he was still around, who now appears frequently on my TV to tell me how great is....
John McCain, who despite running virtually unopposed at this point for the GOP nomination, only managed to get 77 percent of the vote in Indiana, and just 74 percent of Republicans in North Carolina, where primary voters also have the option of voting "no preference."
Consider this: About four times as many Democrats went to polls in North Carolina as Republicans (and that's a solid red state!) and yet "no preference" almost got as many GOP votes (20,305, or 4 percent of the total) as Democrats (22,722, just 1 percent).
Last month in Pennsylvania, I wrote about the ongoing support for long-ago-dropped-out fundamentalist favorite Mike Huckabee (who got a sizable 12 percent in North Carolina, and 10 percent in Indiana) and for unconventional, to say the least, anti-war still-a-candidate Ron Paul (8 percent in North Carolina, and also 8 percent in Indiana). Those numbers are not a total shock, because each one tapped into fairly rabid voting blocs. I don't think it bodes well for McCain, because both blocs may not even vote in November, especially Huckabee's evangelicals whose lack of enthusiasm in 2000 nearly torpedoed Geoge W. Bush.
But seriously, what to say about 5 percent of Indiana Republicans still voting for Romney, a candidate whose following was about as fanatical as supporters of the Los Angeles Clippers or the Florida Marlins. For all the punditry concern about division on the Democratic side -- and it is a legitimate issue -- I think the enthusiasm gap for John McCain is even more palpable.
Consider this: Indiana is a crossover state, and polling suggests that roughly one-in-10 of the 1.2 million voters in the Democratic primary was actually a Republican -- or 120,000 people. If that's correct, then in rough numbers a total of 530,000 Republican Hoosiers voted yesterday -- 320,000 who backed their party's candidate, John McCain, and 210,000 who voted for someone else. How many of those 210,000 will back McCain in six months?
Maybe McCain should have been the one doing the shots of Crown Royal.
Posted by Will Bunch @ 10:28 AM
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48 comments
McCain won 100% of the counties in Indiana. Obama won 9 out of about 80 counties in Indiana.
Comment removed.
Seems irrelevant to me, since general elections are based on state-wide toatls (with some minor exceptions.. NE, ME)
Politburo - are you citicizing Will's analysis of the percentages of the vote won by ech candidate?
Conservative Republicans are simply trying to send McCain a message for the general election. I did it by voting for Romney in my primary. Sorry Will, but Republicans are not going to sit by and watch a left-wing radical like Barack walk away with the prize. Not without a fight, that is.
So Republicans will continue the trend of deficit spending and big gov't?
Comment removed.
No, I'm criticizing your irrelevant data.
You forgot to give McCain credit for some of the votes that went for Hillary. Polls show that 6% of those who voted for Hillary identified themselves as Republicans and said they would not vote for her in November against McSame. If 3 times as many people voted in the Demo primary, that would be equivalent to 18% of the Repub vote, so McSame would have gotten a lot more votes had the Repub primary been of any importance and had there not been such an opportune time to implement Operation Chaos in crossing over. (subtract this phony 6% support and Hillary LOST Indiana).
Before we (and Will) jump to conclusions regarding the GOP primary results, I think we need information from the results of past primaries that were contested but the nomination was wrapped up. Being a New Jersey resident (and until this year our presidential primary being so late my vote was irrelevant) I know that I have voted in meaningless primaries and voted for either for a write-in candidate or someone else besides the nominee. In 2000 & 2004, I voted for McCain each time rather than cast my ballot for Bush in the primary, b/c McCain was my personal preference for the nominee irrespective of the nomination being a foregone conclusion. But, are voting patterns like this common? Did Kerry or Gore receive 80% plus in primaries after the nomination was wrapped up? What about Bush in 2000? Or even Clinton and Bush the Elder in 1992?
Granted, to answer my own question (and would be consistent with Will's analysis) I didn't vote for Bush in the general election in 2000 and 2004 as well (McCain write-in in 2000 and Kerry in 2004).
Good point, Puby, as usual. A quick check showed that Kerry got some 72% of the votes in the 2004 Indiana primary. I would imagine that Kerry had the nom only slightly less wrapped up then than McCain does now. Still, I think that relatively few of the non-Kerry Dem voters in 2004 wound up not voting for him in the GE. I'm not sure that the same can be said for non-McCain Republican voters in the 2008 primary.
Slightly off topic, but I've never seen an explanation on why McCain only got 47% of the AZ vote? Most other candidates significantly outperformed in their home states.
Kerry got 74% of the vote in the 2004 PA primary.
atp you can't really use percentages that way. Clinton had ~640,000 votes. 6% of that is ~38,500 (note ABC says it was 7%). ABC says 2% of Obama voters fit into this as well, and that 2% is ~12,500. If all these voters had voted for McCain in the GOP primary, his numbers would go from 77% to 80%.
For the general election, isn't the only relevant data who won the state?
RG, looking at the results, one can only guess that it is due to the Mormon population in Arizona.
Mr. Smith that is exactly what I am saying, which is why your county-level data is irrelevant.
"Conservative Republicans are simply trying to send McCain a message for the general election."................And the message is what, exactly?
"And the message is what, exactly?" Well, it seems pretty apparent that the message is that the conservative republicans want promises from McCain that he'll govern in a way that is palatable to them, as opposed to the Bush admin which was the antithesis of conservatism in terms of deficit spending, illegal immigration, tolerance of excesses by Congress, protectionist tariffs on steel, etc.
Comrade Politburo - the county-level data IS irrelevant, as are the percentages posted by Comrade Bunch. It's a bunch of political masturbation. That's the point.
Ah, okay. Your point was not really clear (or even expressed) in your initial post.
"Slightly off topic, but I've never seen an explanation on why McCain only got 47% of the AZ vote? Most other candidates significantly outperformed in their home states."
RG, the answer to that one is relatively easy. McCain gave his name to immigration reform, and the bill that he co-sponsored with Kennedy (a very good one, by the way, and something which neither Clinton nor Obama is capable of doing i.e. cooperating with the other side of the aisle) incensed his homestaters, who are keenly sensitive to immigration issues. There are people from Arizona who would sooner set themselves on fire than vote for McCain. However, they would never vote for Obama, since he is the antithesis of everything they believe in as conservatives, and would have a very hard time voting for Hillary as well. Thus, they don't really end up hurting McCain by staying home.
I don't know whether IN was an open primary, but I wonder how many newly minted Pennsylvania Democrats will remember to switch back after operation chaos?
Actually that would be a good strategy: put Clinton on the ticket (yuck) but then all the Rush geniuses would vote for her again in the fall.
Thanks for the answers Christine and Politburo. However, Christine, I think you need to look at Obama's record on working with the other side. Did it in the IL Seante regarding the taping of interrogations. In the US Senate has worked on campaign finance, veterans bills, and non proliferation with Repubs.
"Thus, they don't really end up hurting McCain by staying home.
Posted by Christine".........................Priceless.
I love the wacky wingnuttiness of the comments about Barack (and Michelle) Obama in this thread: "an outright marxist"; "his screeching 'victim' of a wife"; "a left-wing radical"; "left wing Messiah."
The beauty of this year's election is that the more these nuts squeal and rant, the more people are going to flock to vote for Obama. The whole Obama campaign is built around getting away from this tired partisan rhetoric.
So keep rippin' Wingers...you're just making our job easier!
"I wonder how many newly minted Pennsylvania Democrats will remember to switch back after operation chaos?"
Posted by SteveMG
What difference does it make Steve? In November Both Democrats and Republicans will be using the same ballot.
Montco PA Dem, are you voting for Obama because you don't make enough money to be affected by his tax increase..?.
Domenic, are you voting for McCain because you like having someone's grandchild pay for your tax savings?
If you were getting a "tax refund" even if you paid NO taxes, why risk losing your handout by voting for a politician who who runs for office as a tax cutter?
You see Montco, this is how guys like Domenic operate. They never can concede or acknowledge a valid point. They just try to insult you instead. If you read the majority of these posts it's always the frightwingers with these crazy rants.
You don't get a tax refund if you don't pay taxes.
Republicans can sprew their theories and racist rants toward Obama, but the point is that he is going to win because approximately 80% of Americans are unsatisfied with the direction this country is heading. Here is where we are today:
1. We are in the midst of a huge recession, caused mostly by the greed of the oil companies, of which we know Bush is connected. How do you think that family made their millions? We need someone out of the Washington insider/big oil loop to corral this thing.
2. Obama has campaigned more for alternative fuel sources. Some Republicans claim this is some leftist/environmental platform. Our current economic condition tells you that this is a key to our economic stability.
3. The "conservative" Republicans have turned a balanced budget left to us by Bill Clinton into a record deficit with out of control spending.
4. We are spending approximately $5000 per minute in Iraq. With the rise in oil prices, oil producing countries like Iraq are making record profits, of which we see none. We see inflation and job losses. The Iraq war was sold to us as a war on terror. If you beleive the war in Iraq is about terror, then you probably beleive in the Easter Bunny. If this was truely a war on terror, we would be in Afganistan and Pakistan hunting down Binladen. Certain people are getting rich at the expense of our wallets and the blood of our fallen soldiers.
5. National healthcare is long overdue in this country. Republican politicians who are in the pocket of the insurance lobby and their Kool-Aid drinking followers will tell you its socialism. If that arguement is valid, then we already are a socialist nation, since we have state-sponsored education and police protection already in place. We are the only developed country in the world without healthcare coverage. A big trend of late in business is to reduce healthcare for its workers or eliminate it completely.
Establishing a national healthcare plan will also aid the employers who still offer healthcare to its workforce by eliminating a cost to them to help make them more competitive in an international marketplace.
6. Getting out of Iraq will also put an end to the money we are borrowing from China. Approximately 40% of the war is being funded by money on loan from China. Now you know why the Bush administration has given tax breaks to companies who outsource to China. When you owe someone money, you have to do them favors while you are in debt to them.
7. GOPs will tell you any environmental policy is foolish because they think Global Warming does not exist. Whether or not you beleive in Global Warming, why wouldnt you want to do what is best for this planet and our natural resources. Oh yeah, I forgot, it would hurt that one part of the planet known as Wall Street. As long as the lobbyists are happy while you have lung cancer and drink your discolored water.
8. We need an end to Cowboy diplomacy. "You're either with us or against us" will be forever linked to George Bush. The problem is that he did not origonally coin that phrase. That phrase was uttered in the 30's by hitler. We were once the shining beacon of hope in the world, not anymore.
Hopefully the American public can look at the REAL issues facing this country and decide who will lead us in the right direction. It is time we grew up as an electorate (I know its tough when more people vote for Amer. Idol than they do for President). This November is not about what someone's name is or what his name sounds like, his ethnicity, what some dope of a preacher says to get his collection basket full, or about petty moral issues (morality is personal and taught in the home, not decided upon by Capital Hill), or any other distraction. This country listened to Faux News for the past 7 1/2 years and look at us now. Oh yeah, and Hillary supporters - grow up, do the right thing, and back Obama for the sake of the US
Oh yeah, and for those of you who beleive that fat drug addict Rush Limboob. He tells people that the newly converted Democrats are Republicans infultrating the Democratic primaries and his direction. One only has to look at recent local history to see that many are waking up and doing the right thing. Long before his rhetoric, the burbs (longtime GOP strongholds) have been shifting to the Democratic Party. This was done before the 2008 primary season and is evidenced by voters voting out Curt Weldon and Rick Santorum. By hey, since when does limboob let facts get in the way of a good story.
Stick a fork in McCain - he's done. This nation will no more elect another Republican president than it would elect a ham sandwich. Then again, the Democrats could run a ham sandwich against John "I walk with a" McCain and STILL win in November. There's Bush's "legacy" for you - Democrats as president for the next 25 years.
Dear Pgh Firefighter: You have a marked propensity for wishful thinking. Unfortunately, NONE of it will come true.
Mr. Smith provided the most politically astute answer to Will's question about McCain ability to retain GOP support.
For the past two months, the media has been demanding that Clinton quit to make way for Obama. Rank and file Democrats in swing states like PA and Ohio, and "potential battleground" states like Indiana, have been sending the Democratic Party and their media enablers a message -- we do not want the candidate you want to foist upon us.
So when Mr. Smith cites the fact that Obama carried only 9 counties in Indiana, he's noticing that Obama does not have the kind of broad-based apppeal that a Democrat needs to win in November. Barack Obama had everything going his way going into Ohio -- the media, the momentum, and the money, and he couldn't make the sale to the kind of Democratic voters who aren't afraid to vote for Republicans. He couldn't make the sale in Pennsylvania. And he couldn't make the sale in North Carolina.
So when you look at a map of Indidana, and see all the Clinton counties, you are looking at "no sale" signs.
Ham sandwich/Obama,whatever.Either or gets crushed in November.Crushed.
Paul, my friend, popular vote lead, deal with it. She's ran a poor campaign, wrought with mistakes and miscalculations. So she won counties with 0.4% of the state pop by a few hundred votes, whoopie! Seriously, you've got to be dizzy from the spinning.
Nah, YAP, all the Dems have to do is show the videos of McCain's pandering flip flops. Or how he stated more than once, how Shia Iran was funding Sunni AQ in Iraq. Isn't national security and global experience his calling card? There's also Keating 5, his association with the religious right nuts, bomb-bomb Iran, his temper, etc. Good times.
Paul, as Mr. Smith and I agreed, county-level data is simply irrelevant. Also, primary data is generally irrelevant, as well. You can only vote for one person. Just because you're voting for Clinton doesn't mean that you're voting against Obama (despite what the media tells you).
stop bold.
WOW! You're a magician DB! No wonder you were able to get away with all that money!
Koolhand, nobody's grandkid will pay for my tax savings. I put my money right nto the economy, brother.
So you're giving it to China, huh Dom?
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Will Bunch, a senior writer at the Philadelphia Daily News, blogs about his obsessions, including national and local politics and world affairs, the media, pop music, the Philadelphia Phillies, soccer and other sports, not necessarily in that order.
Will Bunch, a senior writer at the Philadelphia Daily News, blogs about his obsessions, including national and local politics and world affairs, the media, pop music, the Philadelphia Phillies, soccer and other sports, not necessarily in that order.
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