I'm belately reading this great Nicholas Kristof column in the New York Times about experts -- you'll be shocked, shocked to learn that that they don't know any more than anyone else, and arguably less. The column explains why blowhards like Jim Cramer who get the most things wrong also get the most TV airtime, and then there is this:
Other studies have confirmed the general sense that expertise is overrated. In one experiment, clinical psychologists did no better than their secretaries in their diagnoses. In another, a white rat in a maze repeatedly beat groups of Yale undergraduates in understanding the optimal way to get food dropped in the maze. The students overanalyzed and saw patterns that didn’t exist, so they were beaten by the rodent.