Since we're heavy into the veep talk this week, while awaiting word on Barack Obama's pick, let's cross the aisle for a moment and try to solve the mystery of John McCain's bizarre trial balloon.
It all began last week when McCain, in the midst of a magazine interview, floated the notion of picking Tom Ridge as his junior partner, despite Ridge's track record as a supporter of abortion rights. The GOP's conservative base reacted with predictable indignation, thus puncturing the balloon. Or so it seemed.
Over the past 48 hours, there have been fresh reports that McCain is floating it anew; as The Washington Times, a newspaper with strong conservative sources, now reports, McCain campaign officials have been dialing up supporters nationwide "to discuss the possibility of naming a Democrat or a pro-choice Republican to the ticket." The Democrat, of course, would be McCain sidekick Joe Lieberman (who is more accurately described as a fallen Democrat now living in independent limbo); the pro-choice Republican, presumably, would still be Ridge. McCain has good personal chemistry with both.
The question is whether McCain is really serious about doing this.
In a race that will require him to harvest every possible conservative vote, is he truly prepared to thumb his nose at the GOP base? Is it not the first principle of Rove-era Republican politics that the base shall be nurtured at all times? All this talk about Ridge and Lieberman (the latter voted against a proposed Senate ban on late-term abortions) has already unnerved a lot of people. There is angry talk of a revolt at the national convention if Lieberman's name is placed in nomination (he's not a Republican, and there is reportedly a party rule that a veep nominee must first be a registered Republican for at least 60 days, a rule that would need to be waived).
Meanwhile, there have been angry editorials in conservative journals; yesterday, the National Review warned that McCain, by choosing either Lieberman or Ridge, would "demoralize" the base, "alienate many of the voters whose enthusiasm McCain needs," and "shatter" the trust that McCain has slowly built on the right. And, of course, there has been Rush Limbaugh, railing on the radio yesterday that McCain seems to be contemplating "a decision that will ensure his defeat."
But is McCain truly contemplating such a decision? Or is something else going on here? I see three possible scenarios:
1. He really means it. He'd love to reclaim the "maverick" label, and the best way is to make a truly transformative choice. Choosing Lieberman or Ridge could provide a bridge to independents, disaffected Democrats, and anyone else yearning to cross the partisan divide. That's how McCain sees himself on his best days, when he's not selling his soul to the Rove alumni who are currently running his campaign.
2. He'd ideally like to pick one of his pals, but he's really just trying to stir up a lot of press interest during a week that is supposed to belong to Obama. What better way to step on Obama's plot arc (the Democratic veep announcement could come today...or tomorrow...or Friday) than by dropping hints that the GOP nominee is engaged in a struggle between his heart and mind?
3. He doesn't intend to name anybody who is even remotely pro-choice, because he well understands that such a decision would be akin to "committing suicide" (to quote Rush's radio rant). All this talk about Ridge and Lieberman is just an elaborate feint. His real purpose is to scare conservatives into thinking the worst, so that they will sigh with relief when he ultimately names somebody who, in their eyes, is actually less than perfect...thereby dampening whatever criticisms they might otherwise be tempted to voice.
Plus, there's a wild card factor; McCain may well be waiting to see who gets the Democratic nod. If Obama chooses a national security candidate, such as Joe Biden, perhaps that helps the case for Ridge, the former Homeland Security director. If Obama chooses the stylistically boring Evan Bayh, perhaps that helps the case for Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, an abortion foe who is also stylistically boring.
My sense is that all three aforementioned scenarios are elements in McCain's thinking - with the heaviest stress on number three. For instance, consider Mitt Romney. A sizeable number of evangelical conservatives are wary of Romney because he's a Mormon; but if they are spooked into thinking that McCain might name a pro-choicer to the ticket, Romney is going to look darn good. Ditto Pawlenty, who is little known outside his state and excites nobody.
The bottom line is that McCain can only play the cards he has been dealt. And here's the game, in a nutshell: At a meeting of social conservatives in Michigan the other day, a McCain emissary was told in no uncertain terms that if an abortion-rights supporter is placed on the ticket, they would prefer to lose the election.
Translation: McCain can afford to play the "maverick" with his trial balloons, but he dare not follow through. Which is why I vote for scenario three.