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The threshold of acceptability

Pointing backwards to the election of 1980

Two things appear to be happening in the national race right now: The sour economy has strengthened the desire for a change of parties, and Obama (aided by his steady, albeit unspectacular, first debate performance) is crossing the threshold of acceptability.

The McCain campaign still appears to believe that it can win this election by "turning a page on the financial crisis" (in other words, steering the subject away from the economy, which happens to be the top voter concern), and by sliming Obama as un-American (witness Palin's weekend charge that Obama has been "palling around with terrorists"). We shall see whether swing voters obsessed with the economy are still in the mood for mud.

Reagan did not cross the threshold of acceptability until late in the 1980 campaign. We tend to mis-remember that race as a Reagan cakewalk, and he did trounce Carter by nine percentage points. But that margin was not foreseen. Until very late in the game, Reagan was widely viewed by swing voters as a risky choice, a charismatic celebrity with no foreign policy experience. As evidenced by the autumn Gallup polls, many feared that Reagan would be a warmonger abroad and an extremist at home. These persistent doubts prevented Reagan from opening a solid lead – much as the doubts about Obama have repeatedly hampered his progress.

Reagan didn't allay his doubters until he met Carter in their sole debate, one week before the election. He was deemed sufficiently conversant on foreign policy issues, and he exuded a sufficient sense of command. He crossed the threshold from risky to safe. Voters who were looking for a reason to fire Carter felt comfortable enough to follow through.

Most importantly, Reagan accomplished this feat because he had the wind at his back. He did precisely what Sarah Palin now deems to be inappropriate.

He pointed fingers backwards, focusing on four years of Democratic rule – particularly the "misery index," a term coined by economist Arthur Okin, combining the jobless rate and the inflation rate. He talked a lot about how the incumbent party was failing America's middle class – just as Obama and Biden are doing today, fueled by the news, released Friday, that the September jobless figures are the worst of any month in the last five years.  (Indeed, the traditional Republican game plan has long been about pointing fingers backwards. In 1988, the GOP ran TV ads seeking to paint Michael Dukakis as Jimmy Carter redux. It aired a TV ad that showed the cars lined up for gasoline back in 1979. The musical score was Johnny Mercer's old ditty, "I Remember You.")

Palin was an efficient attacker last Thursday, and she gave a winsome toss of the head while reciting the Reagan line about "the shining city on a hill." But her invocation of the old master was ahistorical, and her credibility as a candidate is not strong enough to rework the fundamentals of this election. The initial post-debate polls all report that Biden was judged to be the winner, which suggests, again, that Americans predisposed to oust the incumbent party were sufficiently reassured.

I'm not suggesting that Obama will win this election by nine points, as Reagan did in 1980. Hardly. Democrats haven't done that well since the landslide of 1964. But they've got the wind this autumn, and McCain – who has pulled his troops out of Michigan, and who now finds himself being forced to defend Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Indiana, and North Carolina – will head into the second debate, tomorrow night, with no imminent forecast of better weather.