The pitfalls of shrinkage
Arlen Specter and the shrinking GOP
The pitfalls of shrinkage
Dick Polman, Inquirer National Political Columnist
My Sunday column, the revised and expanded director's cut:
Once upon a time, long before the GOP plummeted to its current status as the Southern and Rural Older White Guy Party, it actually was home to a healthy subspecies known as the Republican moderate.
These moderates roamed the land, cutting deals with Democrats, winning statewide elections, and broadening the GOP’s appeal. Pennsylvania alone was fertile turf for people like William Scranton, Richard Schweiker, John Heinz, Hugh Scott, and Arlen Specter. But now, of course, that era is over. Specter has quit the party one step ahead of his own extinction – yet another sign that the Republicans, in their self-defeating quest for ideological purity, have ceased to be a national party.
By the way, I’m hardly alone in saying that the GOP, in its current shrinking iteration, is no longer a national party. Texas Republican Sen. John Cornyn basically confirmed it the other day when he asserted that he and his fellow Republicans fully intend "to regain our status as a national party." But perhaps this new assessment of the GOP said it best:
"The (GOP’s conservatives) can’t always be kicking people out…A great party cannot live by constantly subtracting, by removing or shunning those who are not faithful to every aspect of its beliefs...Room should be made for (the moderates). Especially in those cases when Republican incumbents and candidates are attempting to succeed in increasingly liberal states, a certain practical sympathy is in order. In the party now, there is too much ferocity, and bloody-mindedness...'Shrink to win': I’ve never heard of that as a political slogan."
So wrote Peggy Noonan, the Republican speechwriter for Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush, in a Friday column for The Wall Street Journal.
Naturally, the conservative true-believers scoff at such warnings and declare themselves thrilled that Specter is gone ("good riddance"); they’ve somehow convinced themselves that the loss of yet another Republican Senate seat constitutes a great victory. It’s delusional. The more the party shrinks, the happier they seem. In Pennsylvania, more than 200,000 mostly moderate Republican voters have quit the party over the past several years, dumping their registrations, yet somehow the conservatives, in their "ferocity," see this as cause for celebration. I marvel at their ability to resolutely march through the smoking wreckage, all the while insisting that it smells like roses.
Let us briefly sift the ashes. The party right now has no coherent message, aside from "Do Not Offend Rush Limbaugh." Its messengers are basically conservatives who sing to the choir. It has virtually zilch appeal beyond its base; as evidenced by the ’08 election and every subsequent poll, the party is alienating suburbanites, independents, Latinos (the fastest-growing cohort in the electorate), and people under age 30 (the voters who will dominate for the next half century). And the geography is worse.
A respected non-partisan group, the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, summed it up perfectly in its winter report: "The GOP is out of contention in New England and the West. It is getting out of contention in the mid-Atlantic states and the industrial Midwest. Its bases of former support in the farm Midwest, mountain states, and the South, are eroding.
"The only places where the GOP enjoys a durable advantage are Idaho, Utah, Kansas, Nebraska, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Texas. And with the growth of the Latino population, Texas will likely be at least a toss-up state within the next decade." (Actually, pollsters report that 48 percent of Texas Republicans are so angry with President Obama that they want their state to secede from the union.)
Anyway, the GOP’s "durable advantage" has been reduced to 10 red states. A new national poll, conducted by Republican pollster Bill McInturff and Democratic pollster Peter Hart, reports that only 20 percent of Americans identify themselves as Republicans, the lowest figure in decades. Those holdouts – nationally, and, as Specter discovered, in Pennsylvania - tend to be those who will tolerate no detours from conservative orthodoxy, nor tolerate kind words for Obama.
Specter has left behind a narrowcasted party that would rather marinate in its anger and paranoia than win elections in states outside the heartland and the Old Confederacy. How else to explain the burgeoning popularity of Glenn Beck, the Fox News host, who has been warning of a fascist plot hatched by Democrats? (I’m not kidding. Beck says there’s a fascist symbol on the back of the dime in your pocket – a bundle of rods – and points out that a Democratic president, Woodrow Wilson, approved that artwork in 1916.)
Fortunately, there are still some reality-based Republicans. Kristen Soltis, the research director at a top GOP polling firm, warned the other day that her party "is facing changing demographic forces that present a challenge to its long term growth." Translation: Unless the party wakes up and diversifies, it is toast.
For starters, Soltis said that if the GOP is to have any chance of connecting with younger voters, it "must shed its image as the party of 'old white guys.'" Indeed, the party’s current deficit among the young is dire. In the ’08 presidential election, the Republicans lost the under-30 voters by an unprecedented 34 percentage points. (Reagan, in his landslide ’84 victory, won the under-30s by 19 points.) And the ’08 results can’t be simply attributed to Obama’s personal appeal; farther down the ballot, House Democratic candidates won the under-30s by 29 points.
Why were the young so decisive for the Democrats in 2008? Because they grew up during the incompetent tenure of George W. Bush, and witnessed a needless war that was founded on institutional deception. And because they apparently can’t warm to a party that appears intolerant and exclusionary.
The schism on gay marriage says it all. Whereas a landslide majority of under-30s see the concept as no big deal, the Republican party – hostage, more than ever, to its conservative base – equates it with the downfall of civilization. Unless the party modernizes on that issue, its prospects of wooing the next generation of voters are bleak – which is why Steve Schmidt, who ran John McCain’s ’08 campaign, is now urging his party to lay down an important future marker by endorsing gay marriage.
To woo the young, the GOP could also use some new voices; a recent Pew poll reports that 75 percent of all Republicans, regardless of age, have no idea who the leader of their party is. Lately, the two most prominent spokesmen have been Newt Gingrich and Dick Cheney, which should tell you plenty. Gingrich peaked in November 1998, when he was compelled to quit as House Speaker after the GOP suffered losses in the midterm elections (Gingrich had tried to make a campaign issue out of President Clinton’s sex scandal, but the effort backfired).
And one can only imagine how young voters view Cheney, who keeps resurfacing to defend "enhanced interrogation," thereby keeping the party firmly rooted in yesterday when it clearly would prefer to divorce itself from the Bush tenure once and for all. As Noonan lamented in her column, today’s young voters "seem embarrassed to be associated" with the GOP.
History does teach us that party fortunes fluctuate over time, so I assume the GOP will somehow find its way back. That’s the natural order of things. But for now, the party reminds me of the college marching band that went astray during the climax of the film Animal House; strutting blindly down a dead-end alley, the musicians collided with a brick wall, and even as they crumpled against each other and tumbled to the cement, they kept on playing the same old programmatic music.
Specter found a way out of that alley. Who can blame him? As Noonan put it, "It is fine to dismiss Mr. Specter as an opportunist, but opportunists tell you something: which side is winning."
CD75: the North Koreans tested a small nuclear device in 2006, so we can be reasonably sure that yes, they may have an "a-bomb". ... Where is Obama creating a $3.5 trillion DEFICIT? Others can't have the answers if the questions make no sense.— still_independent- Communism is very different from socialism. Communist = China (which is actually doing quite well economically), Russia etc. Socialism = Scandinavian states, France maybe Britain.....— Tony_From_PA
- Besides, CD/jwad/Xi, don't duck my question. Have you ever travelled outside North America?— Tony_From_PA
- If it is so important that republicans be moderate, how come he got hammered in the election?....because McCain was an idiot when it came to his assessment of the economy and his VP pick. If McCain had picked Ridge, I'm not so sure Obama would have won.— chasing history
- Tony_From_PA you are too smart for us you world traveler you.— jwad56
- "Repullican has become a synonym for stupid" - The great all intelligent Tony_From_PA.— jwad56
- Funny thing shrinkage. Obama is nationalizing the auto industry, the banks, health care, drugs, energy, etc. and in the process shrink our expectations for the future, destroying the chance for a better life for most Americans all for his political philosophy which the MSM's can't talk about for fear voters will say no. Americans are funky people. They take a lot, but they do have their own minds. Shrinkage is what little willy will see when the when Americans say enough and send the liberals and radical left back to the showers.— dutchman
- Still indy: See brookings inst.— CD75
- CD75 : couldn't find it. Are you sure you aren't referring to the new, $3.5 trillion budget? Are you confusing deficit with debt? I can find no projections of a $3.5 trillion deficit.— still_independent
- Tony_From_PA you are right Bush put a war and programs on a credit card, and that is problem the party has. The party did not follow core values. IrrProf: The deficit during the 1940-1960 was very minor less than 1% of GDP while the economy was growing at a grate above 7% and savings around 10%. Those differences are important and we do not have that today. Secondly, the rate of failure, those not completing college was very low. We are a less educated country than we were 30 years ago and with only 26% of a college educated workforce. Next point try reading some books ‘I.O.U.S.A’ for example trends published in 2007 and looks at our deficit and the numerous problems and pitfalls it brings us. Buffet and Volker both state increasing an uncheck deficit will only harm our futures. How about some stats on taxing corporations, than from 1999 to 2008 growth and corporate taxes from the OECH Japan tax 39.54 growth 3.5%, USA tax 39.25 growth 32% (second highest tax, third lowest growth), France 34.43 growth 29%, Poland tax 19 and growth of 47%, Iceland 15 and 45%, and Ireland 12.5% and 52%. Economies need companies to create jobs, nations depend on working people, and well growth doesn’t occur with heavy taxes. Irrational Prof: enter the game with a chip and a card. Next point democrats and republicans alike fail the honour role. We vote for charisma over character and substance far too frequently. BTW a simpler - less taxing code provides growth; loopholes should always be closed.— Fisher
- When the bottom-line Republican philosophy remains "tough, you're on your own, because we don't believe in government we won't help you, and in fact it's your fault you're in the position you're in," how does that fly when millions of Americans are struggling and want government help to get back on their feet? Republicans can get away with their shallow distractions, distortions and smears when times are better. In challenging times, its brand of "rugged individuality" (selfishness, greed and no government assistance) is of no help. Thankfully 30 years of propaganda that "government is the enemy" has not entirely taken hold. Voters chose Obama because they still believe in turning to government for a helping hand. Yes, generally speaking government can be incompetent, but is it more incompetent than private business? No. (Doubt that? Where has privatization brought any greater efficiencies? Ask our military or our State Department what they think of “Xe,” the former Blackwater, and the job they did in Iraq before they were banned from the country.) Sometimes America is lucky, as we were to elect FDR, and as we were in electing Obama. How much worse would the nation's economy be if McCain had won? Under the pressure of his right-wing "base," he wouldn't have done nearly as much as Obama has/is, and we'd be seeing bankruptcies and even greater layoffs every day. We live in a society of more than 300 million people. For it to function properly we need to realize we all share responsibility. We can't just be selfish hedonists and say "tough S" to others who are struggling. We need an effective government that lives up to our ideals, one that helps make society run smoothly, allowing everyone to reach their potential, and thereby making a decent living.— MarstonJJ
- Xi/jwad/CD You are probably so fat and stupid that you cannot even get out of the hole that you live in. For heaven's sake, answer a question without resorting to insults like I just did. Is your real name Sarah Palin?— Tony_From_PA
- Fisher: Good points. Unfortunately, despite the high tax rate in the US, loopholes are way too numerous. I do think that low taxes are good for everyone. However,a strong safety net must exist to help people who fall to bad times dues to circunstances such as job loss, illness etc. I would really like to see a more compasionate Republican party in this sense.— Tony_From_PA
- All I can say is I am grateful it is Obama rather than McCain nominating the replacement for Justice Souter. Whether or not any right wing justices retire, it is reassuring that the moderate wing justices will be getting younger !— ModerateMarge
- compassion is sympathetic consciousness of others' distress together with a desire to alleviate it (m-w). Tony, maybe I am reading you incorrectly, you would rather have compassion than work? Real meaningful work is better than compassion and false hope. EVery physco babble journal will reforce my view. 'Execution' from Bossidy and Charan (sp) explain that good candid talk with employees builds strong pride in work and get employees to provide their best. Letting people slide promotes sloth and sloppy work. Compassion for the few would be great, but we have had that for 60 years and it only works when country is growing. We can not have guns and bread any longer. We must produce only enough guns and cut the size of the loaf. Thus, lesson the load on all, so all can prosper.— Fisher
Cited by the Columbia Journalism Review as one of the nation's top political reporters, and lauded by the ABC News political website as "one of the finest political journalists of his generation," Dick Polman is a national political columnist at the Philadelphia Inquirer. He is on the full-time faculty at the University of Pennsylvania, as "writer in residence." Dick has been a frequent guest on C-Span, MSNBC, CNN, NPR and the BBC. He covered the 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 presidential campaigns.
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