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Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Six weeks of bowling and Bittergate and Pastorgate and nonexistent Bosnian snipers....and for what? The Pennsylvania results have essentially changed nothing. There is seemingly no cure for the chronic Democratic migraine - and the fear, among so many members, that they are tearing themselves asunder.

Memo to the voters of Indiana and North Carolina: Take these candidates, please!

Now that Hillary Clinton has secured her solid Pennsylvania victory, we know two things - both of which we basically knew before:

1. She will slog onward against increasingly heavy odds. (And why shouldn't she, given the fact that she just won another big state and again demonstrated that she is the preferred candidate of the working-class whites who will be crucial to Democratic hopes this autumn?)

2. Barack Obama can't seem to seal the deal, thereby torturing the sizeable number of exhausted Democrats (including many unpledged superdelegates) who yearn for closure.

Obama's attempt last night to spin the defeat was empirically absurd. Hewing to the loser's ritual of flying to the next state while the bad news is still being tallied, Obama shared this assessment of the Pennsylvania race with a group of Indiana supporters: "We rallied people of every age and race and background to the cause."

Problem was, he lost all the older voter categories, starting at age 45. He lost white people, both genders. And with respect to every background, he lost the working-class folks, the union members, and the non-college educated. He lost suburbanites (including two of the suburban Philadelphia counties, Montgomery and Bucks, that he needed to win by comfortable margins), small-town dwellers, and rural residents. He lost the white Catholics and he lost the Jews. He lost the culturally-conservative Democrats on Bob Casey's home turf, Lackawanna County, by a 3 to 1 margin.

And let's return to the racial factor for a moment, because there is a jarring and highly sensitive finding that showed up in the exit polls. Thirteen percent of white voters statewide said that the race of the candidate was important to them; of those voters, 74 percent cast their ballots for Hillary Clinton. This is arguably a warning sign that Obama may face a higher racial hurdle than many observers have generally assumed.

An arguably bigger problem is his persistent deficit among late-deciding voters. I mentioned here yesterday that, in most primaries, Obama has stumbled at the finish line because voters making up their minds during the final 24 hours have tended to break for Clinton, the known quantity. Well, in Pennsylvania it happened again. Eleven percent made up their minds on the last day; 6 out of 10 wound up breaking for Clinton, thereby padding her victory margin.

All told, he appears to have won only five of the 67 Pennsylvania counties. The template for victory was Ed Rendell's '02 gubernatorial campaign, which notched victories in 10 counties - winning overwhelmingly in Philadelphia and its suburbs, then basically hanging on everywhere else. Obama didn't even get the winning margins he needed out of Philadelphia.

So it's easy to see where this campaign is headed: nowhere fast. Clinton's Pennsylvania win (by more than 200,000 votes, slashing his national popular vote lead by more than 25 percent) will gain her some breathing space - forestalling any pro-Obama stampede by the unpledged superdelegates, and prompting some donors to pony up the money that she so badly needs (given the fact that she's currently awash in red ink). She'll net more Pennsylvania delegates than Obama, thanks to her victory, but not nearly enough to appreciably dent his national lead. And Obama will have to reload, yet again, and demonstrate in Indiana that he can relate to, and win over, the lunch-bucket Democrats.

They'll essentially split the Indiana delegates...he recoups whatever he lost in Pennsylvania delegates by winning a majority of North Carolina delegates...she wins West Virginia...he wins Oregon...she's got the seniors, he's got the kids...she's got the whites, he's got the blacks...she's got the bowlers, he's got the brie-eaters...she the whiskey, he the wine...tomato/tomahtoe, let's call the whole thing off.

But nobody seems to know how. And therein lies the danger for Democrats this autumn.

-------

I had more thoughts on Pennsylvania and the Democratic race during an hour-long conversation last night on PBS' "Charlie Rose" show. And so did my betters: historian Doris Kearns Goodwin, Washington journalist Al Hunt, New York Times columnist Bob Herbert, Time magazine's Mark Halperin, and Jacob Weisberg of Slate. The video is posted here.

Posted by Dick Polman @ 1:50 AM  Permalink | 102 comments
Comments   
Posted 03:26 AM, 04/23/2008
yobill626
Pennsylvania is a state where she is cashing in (in many cases) 15 years of debt chips. The traditional GE swing states are really the only places where Hillary's organization had its act together --- OH, FL, PA & MI.
Posted 08:30 AM, 04/23/2008
Seed
Dick, How can media let Obama go without answering the questions “What do you think about Jimmy Carter meeting HAMAS leader (like you wanted to meet Iran’s crazy leader)?” HAMAS leaders are elected representative like Iran's crazy leader. Obama's stated policy and Carter's action line up perfectly in this case. Therefore, Obama has to answers. If he wants to pick and choose the terrorist leaders he wants to meet, he needs to let us know the criteria.
Posted 09:11 AM, 04/23/2008
airgeorge
As a Hillary supporter, I feel redeemed. Hopefully, by winning by 10 points, the pundits will shut up and stop trying to force the race toward Obama and let the voters have their say. He outspent her 4:1 and still couldn't close the deal. I think that she has shown time and again that she has what it takes. The shine has finally started to fade on Obama's halo. I only hope the press takes on more responsibility for BALANCED journalism from this point forward.
Posted 09:23 AM, 04/23/2008
redmanrt
I suspect that it was more than 13% of white voters in PA who aren't ready for a half-black president. I am retired, white, a gun-owner, against abortion, generally a Republican voter, was born in Pittsburgh, and sense the latent racism in the people in that part of the country. The result of the primary last night disgusts me and makes me fear that Wright was mostly right.
Posted 09:46 AM, 04/23/2008
psv
**THIRTEEN** percent said RACE mattered? Is Hillary going to reject and denounce those voters?
Posted 09:46 AM, 04/23/2008
tightlines
I'm beginning to think that this country will never be able to get over its race problem. Poor and middle-class whites, the majority of Americans, will never vote for an "uppity" black. Never. And America will continue its slide into the sewer of the world because we're too stupid to understand who it is that is actually putting us there.
Posted 09:49 AM, 04/23/2008
hillary4me
There's seems to be a great temptation to speak for voters before they have voted! We do have a process for ending all of this -- it's called the primary (and, if necessary, the convention)! Granted it's a nail-biter but so are many football, soccer, basketball, etc., etc., etc., events. Do we say: "Stop the game, I can't take this!" in situations like that? Just because many people are not now mesmarized by Obama does not mean they are racist! Many of us are very concerned about his honesty, his lack of experience, his snobbery, his evasiveness, his radical affiliations, etc., etc., etc. It is, in fact, the great majority of black voters who are sticking solidly with Obama (though many are not) regardless of the above-mentioned factors. Is that group voting for him primarily because he is black? Probably some are, just as there are probably some who are voting for Hillary because she is white. By the way, I've supported Hillary all along and I actually have TWO college degrees. It's quite an insult when journalists imply that only those with a high school education support Hillary! I am happy to see that many more of my peers in that group in PA are beginning to leave the Obama room now that the somewhat blinding light of his charisma has been dimmed. Hillary is the best qualified, the strongest, the most representative of more of the population. In other words, she's simply the best candidate for the party.
Posted 09:53 AM, 04/23/2008
cecilfire
Hillary won by 9 points, not 10. A small difference perhaps, but it is mistakenly being reported (and she is falsely stating) that she won a double-digit victory.
Posted 09:55 AM, 04/23/2008
NewVoter
Clinton voted 16 times against gun owners and sponsored 18 anti-gun bills that never got to a vote. Yet, she's telling everyone that she loves guns. She will say or do anything to get elected. And you have to ask this question: why are Republicans going all-out to get Clinton the nomination? Because they know McCain can beat Clinton and they are scared to death of Obama. If you examine Clinton's campaign donor list, I'll bet you'll find lots of prominent Republicans donating to her campaign. As far as they are concerned, it doesn't matter whether it's Clinton or McCain -- the status quo stays the same. However, you throw Obama into the White House and all bets are off. Wake up, America! The lobbyists and special interests are stealing this election again!
Posted 09:55 AM, 04/23/2008
NOBO
This win was important because it proved the people of Pennsylvania don't trust their local newspaper editorial and news section -- and for good reasons. The massive bias by the reporters and editorialistas for Obama, the coverage that was outright censorship of any negative news about Obama, and the unacceptable bias by the editors was rejected by the voters. I believe this will send a message to newspaper dinosaurs across the country that have been sucking down the Obama koolaid that sloganish endorsements like "change" "unite" "bipartisan" are not supported by Barack Obama's record. The way they have given preferential treatment to Obama rubs fair-minded Americans the wrong way. This is a media backlash more than anything else.
Posted 09:58 AM, 04/23/2008
Bink1
Cut the MEDIA/clinton SPIN; PENN NUMBERS: Pennsylvannia numbers Actually, it is down to almost 8.5%. See http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ 54.3 (Clinton) 45.7 (Obama)
Posted 10:18 AM, 04/23/2008
NewVoter
Maybe the best thing for Democrats would be for Hillary Clinton to get the nomination and then get soundly trounced by McCain (which she will). Maybe then the Clintons will slink off into their shadowy world of special interests and lobbyists and leave the rest of us alone!
Posted 10:44 AM, 04/23/2008
Daisy
It's not about "latent racism". Democrats are finally starting to pay attention to the DETAILS. It's one thing to have a bright, new, shiny politician who talks about "change" and "unity"; it's another to realize that he doesn't really have any new ideas. They're all the same old socialist, liberal ideas. He's the most liberal Senator in Washington, and THAT is saying something! He's never voted in a way that brings unity on Capitol Hill. He toes the democat party line. People are waking up that that reality. He has virtually no experience that would lead voters to believe he can lead our great country. He is a FIRST TERM senator, propped up by the democrat political machine in Chicago. People are waking up to that reality. The best thing for democrats would be for Hillary to be their candidate. She stands a MUCH better chance of beating John McCain than Obama. The only reason republicans are cheering her on now is that they want to see a bloody battle between the democrats that goes to the convention. Republicans fear running against Hillary; they hope Obama is the opponent, but that he is so damaged by Hillary that McCain doesn't have to do the dirty work in the summer and fall.
Comment removed.
Posted 10:56 AM, 04/23/2008
mplseric
well, airgeorge, while the 4-1 outspending ratio sounds good and makes for good soundbites...obviously why HillBill has used it everytime she opens her mouth....CNN and MSNBC have both shot that down and report that O actually outspent H by just slightly more than 2-1.
About Dick Polman

Cited by the Columbia Journalism Review as one of the nation's top political reporters, and lauded by the ABC News political website as "one of the finest political journalists of his generation," Dick Polman is a national political columnist at the Philadelphia Inquirer. He is on the full-time faculty at the University of Pennsylvania, as "writer in residence." Dick has been a frequent guest on C-Span, MSNBC, CNN, NPR and the BBC. He covered the 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 presidential campaigns.

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All commentaries posted before April 18, 2008, can be accessed at www.dickpolman.blogspot.com.