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Wednesday, July 1, 2009

 

 

As an occasional guest on Saturday Night Live several decades ago, Al Franken would seemingly morph into Pat Robertson, nailing with eerie precision the religious right leader's smarmy unctuousness - a tour de farce that rivals Tina Fey's take on Sarah Palin in the mimicry hall of fame.

But the comic Franken is gone now, at least for the next six years. Thanks to a long-expected ruling yesterday by the Minnesota Supreme Court, and a swift decision by Norm Coleman to finally wake up to reality and stop wasting Republican money in a futile cause, Franken is now free to don the cloak of senatorial seriousness. He did it yesterday, while addressing the issue of whether he views himself as the 60th Democratic senator and thus the guy who gives Democrats their first potentially filibuster-proof chamber since 1979. Without a glint of amusement, he said that, no, "that's not how I see it. (I am) going to be the second senator from the state of Minnesota, and that's how I'm going to do my job."

But since Franken is likely to be a reliable soldier for Barack Obama - particularly during the impending Senate battles over health care reform, climate change, and the Sotomayor court nomination; and, in all likelihood, during subsequent battles over whether to repeal Don't Ask Don't Tell, to enact path-to-citizenship immigration reform, and to enact reforms making it easier for labor unions to organize - it's worth dwelling briefly on the significance of the Democrats' political victory. They dearly wanted to get 60 Senate seats and put themselves in a position to choke off Republican blockage, thus erasing one of the GOP's few remaining power options...and now they've gotten what they wanted.

But, as the saying goes, be careful what you wish for.

The expectations of success have just been ratcheted upward. From this point forward, if Senate Democrats screw things up, if they fail to move the key planks in Obama's policy agenda, they will no longer be able to make excuses. They won't be able to say, well, we simply didn't have the 60 votes to get things done. They own the chamber now, and that could potentially wind up helping the GOP during the 2010 election season. Republican candidates might be able to highlight perceived flaws in Democratic landmark legislation and claim that their own hands are clean. ("Hey, folks, don't blame us!")

But 2010 is a long way off. The immediate impact of Franken's ascent is that the expectations for Democratic success have been sharply raised. Liberal activists, in particular, have spent the last 20 hours insisting that Obama and the Senate Democrats now have a rare opportunity to stiff the nay-saying Republicans and bring on the changes sought by the '08 electorate.

It would not be a shock if this scenario fails to play out.

For starters, two Democrats (Ted Kennedy and Robert Byrd) are ailing, and therefore not necessarily available in the clutch. And there's nothing inherently magical about having 60 seats anyway. It's pivotal only if every single Democrat (plus the two Dem-leaning independents) sticks together, thereby providing the required votes to stop any GOP filibuster. The problem is, Democratic senators generally don't all stick together.

This is partly due to the realities of Senate culture; the place is populated by independent-minded egotists who are often more attuned to the economic interests back home than to the political priorities of their own president. Case in point: Democrat Ben Nelson of Nebraska has fought an Obama plan to overhaul the federal college loan program, because one of the big lenders that benefits from the status quo is based in Nebraska.

And in addition to Nelson, there are at least five other Democrats who hail from traditional red states that voted for either John McCain in 2008 or George W. Bush in 2004, or both. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, for instance, staunchly opposes any health care reform bill that would create a public option; indeed, liberal activists are now running TV ads against her, citing the fact that she has collected $1.6 million in campaign donations from the health and insurance companies. Meanwhile, both Arkansas Democratic senators, Blanche Lincoln and David Pryor, have been notably unenthusiastic about Obama's proposed health care reform and his landmark bid to cap greenhouse gases.

Unless Obama can somehow twist arms in the tradition of Lyndon Johnson, it's hard to see how he can herd the 60 cats. And not even LBJ, if resurrected today, could twist arms the way he did back in the Great Society heyday of 1965. Johnson cut deals with recalcitrant Democratic senators by putting pork projects in their districts, but those "earmarks" are politically verboten today.

The bottom line is that Democrats are notoriously prone to indiscipline - unlike the Republicans, by the way. George W. Bush reached the White House after having lost the popular vote, and he only had 50 senators on side; nevertheless, he and they governed in lockstep, acting as if he'd won a conservative mandate in 2000, and wound up enacting several major tax cuts. Republicans are simply better at taking direction from the top; by contrast, the last collaboration between a super-majority Democratic Senate and a Democratic president (Jimmy Carter) was a disaster.

Franken's arrival is already emboldening the Democrats' liberal wing. In an interview with The Huffington Post, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has thrown down the gauntlet, demanding that all 60 senators stand together now and pledge in advance to break any GOP effort to filibuster a health care reform bill that contains a public option.

He said: "I think that with Al Franken coming on board...the strategy should be that every Democrat, no matter whether or not they ultimately end up voting for the final bill, is to say 'we are going to vote together to stop a Republican filibuster.' And if (an anti-filibuster Democrat) ends up saying, 'I'm not gonna vote for this bill, it's too radical, blah, blah, blah,' that's fine. I think the idea of going to conservative Republicans, who are essentially representing the insurance companies and the drug companies, and watering down this bill substantially, rather than demanding we get 60 votes to stop the filibuster, I think that is a very wrong political strategy."

The stakes have gone up, expectations have been raised, and the Democratic base will be less tolerant of failure. The arrival of the Senate's first career humorist has actually lowered the prospects for comic relief.
 

 

Posted by Dick Polman @ 11:36 AM  Permalink | 55 comments
Comments   
Posted 12:14 PM, 07/01/2009
jmc
I thought libs hated when politicians assumed office due to a judicial decision. I guess the new atitude is all part of the change Obama was talking about?
Posted 12:23 PM, 07/01/2009
mxlplk
They dislike it when the election is stolen as in 2000. When it is a fair election such as Franken's, no problem.
Comment removed.
Posted 12:31 PM, 07/01/2009
Master Dreamz
comrade, why dont you take it elsewhere? Or, better yet, come back with actual facts to refute what is said. Otherwise, quit the gibberish. This is an opinion blog, politically based. If you cant stand dissenting opinions from your own, start your own blog -- or go listen to Rush and friends.
Posted 12:32 PM, 07/01/2009
CD75
While you cannot expect liberal wanna be lawyers to know about the law, the democrat majority Minnesota Supreme Court "punted" on the case by only saying that the election board in Minnesota did not commit fraud. They never addressed the mid-course change in standards used by the board to find new votes for Al Frankenstein. By the way, the Sotomayer case on the fire fighters shows that she is more concerned about affirmative action than putting quality firemen on the street to protect people. Who do you want comming to save your life and home - 1) those that passed the test, or 2) those that failed the test, but got promoted anyway? Why does Sotomayer want substandard firemen protecting us?
Posted 12:37 PM, 07/01/2009
Multi-Grain
Hoo Boy! The rabid repubs are out in force today - must really, really suck to be them these days. And I cannot wait to hear how O'Reilly's head has exploded after promising his listeners that there was “no way this guttersnipe” would sit in the Senate … Ouch Falafel man. Anyway – you gripers are just too, too funny these days. Whining and complaining about nothing, with no substance, no logic, no ideas – very representative of your party’s ideology anymore. Boo Fing Hoo babies. You reap what you sow, no go back and sit in your corners with your thumbs in your mouths. You appear more intelligent that way.
Posted 12:49 PM, 07/01/2009
Fernando08
Comrades, now is the historic moment to change the constitution and declare the glorious people's republic of socialist states in honor of the undefeatable will of the industrial proletariat in all matters foreign and domestic. The first order of business is the immediate liquidation of the parasite class of exploiters and the re-distribution of their wealth for material progress and equal reparations for crimes against the working class through out all of time. Without doubt, we have arrived at the historic synthesis technological productivity and political will to create the first stages of the dissolution of the state. Next, we detain and defang the counter revolutionaries, known by their stock pile of ammunition and weapons. Designated air cavalry in black helicopters will darken the skies as they cart away the obstructionists, the parasites and their paid agents. Finally, non stop university courses will be broadcast on the confiscated channels of the propagandists of false consciousness, the religious caste. These enlightening truths will re-educate the masses from a state of ignorant mystification. A dawn of new age of liberty will be upon us carried by the river of blood cascading through the gutters of new and better political economy.
Posted 12:53 PM, 07/01/2009
Fernando08
No, wait, that's not what I meant. What I meant to say was that I was out hiking in Appalachia. No wait, what I really was doing was flying off to Brazil for indie film festival where I can do the coochie coo with half naked women.
Comment removed.
Posted 01:33 PM, 07/01/2009
Fernando08
Wait wait, I was really gathering Arab speakers while in Brazil to help me with my future hiking in Iran, for diplomatic purpose, no line crossing. For real this time.
Posted 01:45 PM, 07/01/2009
Phrossty
I did not cross the line with that Farsi-speaking woman. No matter what the definition of "is" is.
Posted 01:47 PM, 07/01/2009
tom - wilmington, de
He said: "I think that with Al Franken coming on board...the strategy should be that every Democrat, no matter whether or not they ultimately end up voting for the final bill, is to say 'we are going to vote together to stop a Republican filibuster.'....I guess Bernie forgot that the Democrats pushed through to pass health care using "reconciliation", meaning the Republicans cannot use the filibuster to stop it. All they need is 51 votes to pass health care...so they own it, and all the tax increases, deficits, rationing, and discontent from the people that come with it.
Posted 01:48 PM, 07/01/2009
Phrossty
Thank you, DP. Well, the "Bush" decade is almost over, and good riddance, and far as I'm concerned. The 00's were simply 8 years of neocons thinking of nothing but themselves. No wonder we were unable to get together and solve any of the many serious problems facing our nation. Oh sure, some people did do some positive things in the 00's - like jogging - but always for the wrong reasons, for their own selfish, personal benefit. Well, I believe the 10's are gonna have to be different. I think that people are going to stop thinking about themselves, and start thinking about me, Al Franken. That's right. I believe we're entering what I like to call the Al Franken Decade. Oh, for me, Al Franken, the 10's will be pretty much the same as the 00's. I'll still be thinking of me, Al Franken. But for you, you'll be thinking more about how things affect me, Al Franken. When you read a news report, you'll be thinking, "I wonder what Al Franken thinks about this thing?", "I wonder how this filibuster thing is hurting Al Franken?" And you women will be thinking, "What can I wear that will please Al Franken?", or "What can I not wear?" You know, I know a lot of you out there are thinking, "Why Al Franken?" Well, because I thought of it, and I'm on TV, so I've already gotten the jump on you. So, I say let's leave behind the fragmented, selfish 00's, and go into the 10's with a unity and purpose. That's what I think. I'm Al Franken.
Posted 02:02 PM, 07/01/2009
tom - wilmington, de
Wasn't it ironic that the same person paying tribute to the troops for the job they did in quelling violence in Iraq was the same person who a little more than a year ago said..."it is time to admit that no amount of American lives and money can solve the political differences in Iraq causing the civil war". Isn't that ironic? It is also odd that all the people who posted here about the Bush admin supposedly silencing a NASA report about global warming are mum on the Obama EPA silencing a report contradicting their theory on global warming and CO2. Just like so many posted here about Bush firing 8 prosecutors over political differences but are mum on Obama going against the law he co-sponsored in firing Inspector Generals (3 to date) and informing another he now reports to the Treasury Secretary (the law stipulates they remain independent of the departments they are to audit/investigate/etc.). Where are all those people now?
Posted 02:07 PM, 07/01/2009
Vandy
Dick, I have to agree with your central point. It's a lot easier for moderate Democrats from the heartland to vote "yes" on things to protect themselves against moveon.org and other party bosses when they know there's an opposition-party safety net to prevent legislation from actually happening. Now, however, every vote counts and there are no excuses.
About Dick Polman

Cited by the Columbia Journalism Review as one of the nation's top political reporters, and lauded by the ABC News political website as "one of the finest political journalists of his generation," Dick Polman is a national political columnist at the Philadelphia Inquirer. He is on the full-time faculty at the University of Pennsylvania, as "writer in residence." Dick has been a frequent guest on C-Span, MSNBC, CNN, NPR and the BBC. He covered the 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 presidential campaigns.

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All commentaries posted before April 18, 2008, can be accessed at www.dickpolman.blogspot.com.