Obama's woes in microcosm
A pivotal county in a pivotal state
Obama's woes in microcosm
Dick Polman, Inquirer National Political Columnist
DENVER - Stan Greenberg is in town for the convention, and he's talking about Macomb County again. For Democrats who are a tad anxious about Barack Obama, that's not a welcome development.
Greenberg, a veteran Democratic pollster who has been tracking that bellwether blue-collar/middle-class Michigan county since 1985, would surely not be sounding the alarm about Macomb if Obama was polling well there. But since Obama is not polling particularly well there, and since Macomb is a crucial piece of the puzzle in Michigan, a state that is shaping up to be a major battleground this autumn, Greenberg is now back to talking about Macomb. And what's most striking is how Obama's current woes in Macomb parallel his challenges nationwide.
Greenberg was first drawn to Macomb County, on the outskirts of Detroit, because it was ground zero for the birth of "Reagan Democrats," the working whites who backed JFK and LBJ with landslide enthusiasm, only to bail on the party during the '80s, trouncing Walter Mondale by 33 points in 1984 and Michael Dukakis by 21 points in 1988. Greenberg wrote an entire book about Macomb, detailing the voters' anger at liberal social policies, particularly on the topic of race. These voters felt that the Democrats didn't care anymore about the aspirations of blue-collar whites for a middle-class life.
But Bill Clinton took the Greenberg data to heart in 1992, and he cracked the Macomb code, losing the county by only five points - minimizing the damage, as it were, and allowing him to win statewide. Clinton actualluy won Macomb in 1996 by 11 points, and even Al Gore won Macomb by two points four years later (and the state by five). John Kerry lost Macomb by only one point, and managed to eke out a statewide win by three.
The problem in Macomb right now, according to Greenberg's figures, is that Obama is trailing John McCain by seven points - mostly because of persistent wariness among voters who, given their current economic pain, should be primed to support the Democrat.
In Greenberg's words, Obama is "underperforming" among the Democratic voters in Macomb, a county that is 90 percent white, 50 percent Catholic, and 40 percent union. And when we slice and dice the figures a bit further, Obama's problems become even more apparent. Greenberg says that 14 percent of all likely Macomb voters are what he calls "Democratic defectors" - in translation, people who are hanging back from Obama, people "who identify with the Democratic party, or independents who lean toward the Democrats but who are not now supporting Obama."
These folks aren't enamored of John McCain - they're mostly disgusted with the GOP - and they endorse the notion of change. Indeed, as Greenberg said here yesterday, "They want to vote for change. But they haven't yet figured out a way to do it." And that's because they're not (yet?) comfortable with Obama.
Why not? Several reasons:
To many of them, Obama still seems "mysterious" (as guy told Greenberg in a focus group). They don't know much about him, except that he came from nowhere. Basically, said Greenberg, "they're very suspicious." They're not really bothered by Obama's race (which is an improvement for Macomb, given the remarks about blacks that Greenberg collected for his book two decades ago), but they're not yet convinced that Obama would champion the economic aspirations of all Americans, irrespective of race. "This," says Greenberg, "is a threshold issue." And speaking of the economy, these voters don't yet sense that Obama shares their anger about what's gone wrong, nor their passion about wanting to make things right.
There's more. The wary Macomb voters are still trying to sort out certain problematical aspects of the Obama biography - namely, says Greenberg, "these voters do not understand how Obama could sit in Reverend Wright's pews for 20 years; they are not certain what conclusion to draw, and they are still watching and wondering." And they have strong doubts about Obama's commander credentials - as evidenced by one new Greenberg stat: When the "Democratic defectors" were asked which guy would best handle national security issues, McCain topped Obama...78 percent to nine percent.
The size of that margin may be partly attributable to the sludge circulating about Obama, and a willingness among some voters to swallow it (focus group guy talking to Greenberg: "Is he a terrorist?...I've seen enough stuff over the Internet that digs into his life and just, I don't know"). But McCain also talks more explicitly than Obama about defeating terrorists, and that theme resonates with these people in Macomb.
So Obama's challenges in Macomb, and at his national convention, are clear: Increase the personal comfort level, exude a fighting spirit on the economy, and buttress those commander creds. The good news for Obama, says Greenberg, is that over 40 percent of the Macomb defectors are willing to indulge Obama as he tries to close the sale, and thus they are still "winnable." In short, "they don't want to vote for McCain. This is all about Obama."
And if you want to track blue-collar white sentiment between now and November, particularly in a pivotal state such as Michigan, keep an eye on Macomb.
I'd be curious what the numbers would be if Hillary had won. I think that she would be up on McCain by ten points. He should have taken her for Veep, now he has to fight tooth and nail for every vote.— mcnuckel- Michigan is hurting also because of the policies of their Democrat governor and legislature, raising taxes during a statewide recession. Granholm is not doing a stellar job, and maybe the voters in Macomb are wary a Democrat president further raising their taxes. Isn't the problem also that in what everyone states is a Democrat year, the popular Demcorat nominee is at best tied with the Republican?— tom - wilmington, de
- Nancy Pelosi, the woman who yesterday on Meet the Press said the Catholic Church does not recognize life as beginning at conception, who said on the same show we need to move away from fossil fuels and more towards natural gas, and who said God has blessed us with Barack Obama, just spoke to the convention. It is people like her who hurt the Democrat party.— tom - wilmington, de
- A really big problem in places like Macomb and other isolated communities across this country is that you have no idea about black values, aspirations, accomplishments and achievements. We don't live in your communities because you make it clear that we are not welcome. What you learned about blacks in your schools is erroneous and primarily learned through the media which has failed to focus on what is good about our lives, values and communities. Thousands of blacks work every day, take good care of our children, go to church, believe in the Lord Jesus Christ, send our kids to college, save for a rainy day, cry and support our sons and daughters who go off to war, pay our taxes and strive to be good citizens. What you see on TV, on the Internet and in news media addresses a segment of the black community that I don't want in my neighborhood either. Senator Obama has told you over and over, Senator Ted Kennedy and other prominent whites have spoken of Obama's vision and plan for America but still you doubt his sincerity and ability. If your fear is that you feel Obama will do more for blacks that for whites you are way out in left field. He and every other black person in America knows that you will hold him to a higher standard and scrutize and criticize his every move. I can assure you Obama will work like a dog to make your lives better if for no other reason than to prove to white folks that a black man CAN!! Finally, if you want to cut your own nose off to spite you face then vote for McCain or don't vote at all. You have more to lose than anyone else.— knowalot
- Pelosi is one of the reasons the D's can't get traction in the national elections. She is so far on the left bank, she can't even see the rest of the world. What do the voters out there see?— JimR
- knowalot, black folks are as ignorant about whites folks as whites are about blacks. look in the mirror. that person is angry and ignorant. hope. courage. biden?— A Friend
- It surprises and saddens me to see how blue collar votes buy everything that corporate media entities like Fox News or CNN sells them, our country has suffered from their ignorance.— pubasnacks
- Having grown up in lower to middle middle class diverse Philly neighborhood, I have also identified, less and less lately, with democrats for much of my life The easiest way for me to put it now is that the people I see and words I hear from Pelosi, Obama, Wright, Dean, Kerry, Schumer, amongst others AINT ME. I am mostly just disallusioned in general and primarily believe that the CHANGE YOU CAN BELIEVE IN is politicaly motivated bulls""t. Every pres in the history of the country caters to the money and he won't be any different cause he CANT BE. It is the system. I also feel like I am being spoken TO by liberals. My beliefs are illthought, chavunist, racially motivated, unloving etc.... The really scary part is I have half a mind to not vote at all. As a note, I truly do wonder how Barack Obama sat in that mans church for twenty years then said he is family like his grandma then said he cant believe what he said two weeks later. Once again politically expidient, which is not just his sin but all politicians. Just thoughts— ILUVPHILLYCITYOFLOSERS
- "It surprises and saddens me to see how blue collar votes buy everything that corporate media entities like Fox News or CNN sells them, our country has suffered from their ignorance" Perfect example of how liberals discount peoples beliefs and ideals based on their perceived superior education, intelligence and moral standing Cant just be that those birdbrain blue collar workers happen to believe certain things besides taxes and giveaways. YOU CAN'T HELP AND TAKE CARE OF EVERYONE, NOT EVERYONE WANTS OR NEEDS YOUR HELP AND THE PEOPLE WHO DO HAVE NO DESIREE TO ACCEPT IT NO MATTER HOW HARD YOU TRY— ILUVPHILLYCITYOFLOSERS
- "YOU CAN'T HELP AND TAKE CARE OF EVERYONE, NOT EVERYONE WANTS OR NEEDS YOUR HELP AND THE PEOPLE WHO DO HAVE NO DESIREE TO ACCEPT IT NO MATTER HOW HARD YOU TRY." Its funny to read angry rethuglicans on the internet, I wonder if you will be around next January when Democrats take over begin to fix the problems Bush and McCain have gotten us into.— pubasnacks
- The problems this country faces are solely due to big-government liberalism, spread by BOTH THE PARTIES. We need to return to a point in our history where government is not considered to be the end-all, be-all solution to all our problems. The Democrats are, obviously, much worse, and want to keep all Americans enslaved to government handouts. The Bush Administration was no better - just liberalism dished out to different people. We need a Reaganite in office...or, better yet, a George Washington.— SailAway
- Nobody is as disappointed about Hillary not getting the VP spot as the republicans are. They were all prepared to run the typical anti-Clinton ads, bring up all the old issues about White House firings, White Wter, Vince Foster's death,... It's bad enough to see ads with Hillary dissing Obama back in the campaign, imagine if she was actually part of the ticket. Instead of discussing issues, they'd both be constantly answering questions about what she said about him and what Bill said, on and on. If she was the candidate she might be getting those "Reagan Democrat' votes but considering most of those angry white guys didn't like Bill to begin with and became Reaganites because they were anti-special interests (i.e. anti-minority, anti-feminists,anti-gay, anti-immigrant) I really doubt they would be supporting her against a good old white guy. Remember the polls in Indiana and other states that showed a significant proportion of those who voted for Hillary were not plnning to vote for her in November. Then add to those all the Demos who voted for Obama and Edwards because they can't stand Hillary, and the result would probably be about the same. It's been ages since there was more than a few % point difference between the Presidential candidates, which can result in large electoral vote swings.— atp2007
- Did I miss something here? Why is Polman worried about this county? Clinton lost it by 5 points and still won the state. Obama is down 7 and still has under 3 months left. I was expecting him to say Obama was down by 20 points. Obama wins Michigan, PA and Virginia...game over for McCain.— cranjx
- To A Friend,as a person who was born and raised in a small city in Massachusetts where there were only 4 blacks in my graduating class, and after having gone to Mt. Holyoke for my BA degree and Fordham for my Masters I have a very clear understanding of white America. Aside from my personal upbringing around you, I was educated in America, have read history books and been exposed to a steady flow from the media that advances, lauds, reveres, promotes and stuffed down my throat your agenda. We have been voting for white Presidents since we were given the right to vote, which by the way was only 45 years ago and many of my people had to die for that right. Plenty of those presidents screwed up this country BIG TIME with the biggest mess being now after 8 years with GWB. I'm not suggesting that you vote for Obama, vote for McCain or don't vote at all it doesn't matter to me one way or the other. Finally, I do look in the mirror every day and the reflection that I see is that of a beautiful, black, accomplished women. By the way, A Friend, Biden should be capitalized, its a proper noun.— knowalot
- This Presidential race is so different, I don't think the polls can be accurate. I think a lot of people will decide at the last minute. (or second) At that moment, I think intelligence will overcome emotion.— EdwinLJones
Cited by the Columbia Journalism Review as one of the nation's top political reporters, and lauded by the ABC News political website as "one of the finest political journalists of his generation," Dick Polman is a national political columnist at the Philadelphia Inquirer. He is on the full-time faculty at the University of Pennsylvania, as "writer in residence." Dick has been a frequent guest on C-Span, MSNBC, CNN, NPR and the BBC. He covered the 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 presidential campaigns.
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