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Thursday, January 29, 2009




With apologies to the artist formerly known as Prince, it appears that the Republicans want to party like it's 1993.

That was Bill Clinton's first year in the White House. When he pushed an ambitious deficit-reduction bill, designed to erase all the red ink left on the federal ledger by Ronald Reagan and the senior George Bush, the U.S. House of Representatives managed to get it passed - without a single vote from the minority Republicans.

Flash forward to 2009, and last night's vote on the massive Obama-backed stimulus bill that is designed to at least mitigate the economic downward spiral and hopefully put down the markers for a recovery. The U.S. House of Representatives managed to get it passed - without a single vote from the minority Republicans. The new president extended his hand to the opposition members, essentially telling them "Yes you can," to which they essentially responded with their new battle cry, "Now we won't."

There's an old political saying that goes something like this: If you're stuck in a deep hole, stop digging. Yet the Republicans - most notably the House Republicans, who generally hail from strong conservative districts - continue to dig. The GOP was badly thrashed in the '06 and '08 elections, the electorate basically declared that the party as currently constituted is unfit to govern, the new president is trying to confront a dire economic crisis, the electorate is demanding swift corrective measures....and despite all that, the party has decided to wield the shovel and sink itself deeper into the soil.

Obviously the recovery package isn't perfect. No piece of legislation is ever perfect. The ingredients in this sausage will change anyway as the product moves through the Senate next week, and then into the House-Senate reconciliation process. Maybe, by the target date of mid-February, there will be more tax cuts, maybe less social spending, or maybe the the whole package will get even bigger and top $1 trillion (as many economists insist it should). Maybe, in the end, Barack Obama will be able to scarf up a sufficient number of GOP votes (in the more conciliatory Senate) to declare victory in his quest for bipartisanship. And probably, in the end, no faction in either party will be fully satisfied; indeed, liberal and moderate Democrats remain at odds over the spending priorities.

Given all these variables, the House Republicans figured it was worth their while at this juncture to simply send a message. The message itself is a mix of sincere philosophical conviction and cold political calculation, salted with a dose of snarky 'tude. They decided it was a good time to show their demoralized conservative base that they still stand for something. Which meant doing nothing.

So they simply stood aside last night and let the House Democrats pass the $819-billion package on their own. The Republicans complained that there weren't enough tax cuts, and no doubt they were sincere about wanting more (even though, as economists routinely point out, middle- and upper-class Americans are more likely to bank any new cash rather than pump it back into economy by spending it). They also complained about some of the Democratic spending provisions, and no doubt they were sincere in their philosophical opposition to federal largess (although they were never concerned about their own runaway spending during the Bush era, and their relentless mockery of the provision earmarking $355 million for the fight against sexually-transmitted disease is frankly trumped by the fact that the proposed STD outlay is roughly .04 percent of the total package).

No, what's really happening here is that GOP figured it had to make a political move, to boost grassroots party morale. Most of the Republican moderates are gone now, having been defeated in the last two elections. Most surviving Republican congressmen hail from safe conservative districts (which were created during the past few decades by those who draw the district boundaries), and the voters in those districts are not interested in working with Barack Obama. In fact, any GOP congressman who strays across the aisle is likely to be challenged from the right in a subsequent party primary.

So it's smart to vote No just as a matter of political necessity, even if it risks exposing these Republican congressmen to the charge that, by voting No, they thumbed their noses at the national interest and failed to aid the growing number of Americans in need. But they're not likely to take much heat in their districts for opposing a big federal spending bill - and besides, there's always the chance that Obama's measures will fail to arrest the economic plunge, thereby giving these Republicans a potential opportunity to declare, during the 2010 election season, "I told ya so." 

On the other hand...this is not 1993. Bill Clinton was a minority president, elected with just 43 percent of the vote, and the Republicans had actually gained some seats on Capitol Hill in the '92 election. By contrast, Obama is the most popular incoming president of his generation, with a job approval rating that nudges 70 percent, and the GOP has been relegated to the margins in two straight elections. House Republican leaders are claiming that their No vote last night was actually aimed at Speaker Nancy Pelosi, not at Obama - but that's not how their stance will play out beyond the Beltway, where most (hurting) Americans don't care a whit about inside-baseball congressional politicking. They'll just note the shorthand: "Republicans stiff Obama." 

Moreover, the latest Gallup poll reports that a majority of voters now identify themselves as Democrats in 43 of the 50 states (quite a switch from 2002, when Gallup reported that a majority of the states leaned GOP). If the final recovery bill, signed by Obama, ultimately helps to nudge the economy upward with minimal Republican support, the congressional GOP members risk being dismissed as even more irrelevant than they are today.

But since they're faring so badly at the moment, why not just role the dice, wash their hands of all responsibility for governance, and hope that they can reap the political reward if things go wrong? Defeat can be so liberating. As Janis Joplin once sang, "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

Posted by Dick Polman @ 11:01 AM  Permalink | 88 comments
Comments   
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:15 AM, 01/29/2009
    Well now you can't keep blaming Republicans for all the problems can you? It's the Democrats plan. When it sparks double digit inflation and massive tax increases you won't be able to blame them or Bush. Thanks Obama!
    jwad56
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:19 AM, 01/29/2009
    JW - you're right. It's a win-lose for everyone now. If the economy rebounds in the next 24 months, Obama is a hero, and the Reps look like bums. If the economy is worse in 24 months, the Reps win and Obama loses. Great for politics I guess; lousy for governance.
    Lynx
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:23 AM, 01/29/2009
    DP: Your so smug and sure that this little political utopia the Dems have going is going to last forever. You've been around long enough to see the ebb and flow of politics, nothing lasts forever. That said, the Republicans were right to vote against the bill, it is full of liberal pet projects and nanny state expansion that have nothing to do with creating jobs and stimulating the economy. It's being pushed through by Dems because the people are desperate to stop the economic bleeding. So, being sneaky, the Dems can take advantage of the economic fear to finance the liberal utopia that most people are against. Ethics and transparency running wild, I see. Republicans are doing what they've failed to do as of late, vote "no" on massive pork bills. Good for them, though maybe if they did that more in the past they wouldn't be in the minority now. Also DP, if you still doubt the power of Rush Limbaugh: Obama picks a fight, next thing Obama knows he gets zero Republican votes for his stimulus. Coincidence?
    jmc
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:49 AM, 01/29/2009
    I really wish there was some kind of compromise on this issue. I'm conservative but at this point NOTHING will be gained by Obama falling flat on his face. I agree with improving infastructure and shovel ready projects, but Obmama could easily bring jobs back to America by lowering the corporate tax rate. It wouldn't be very popular, but dropping the rate from 35% to 20%, or 15% would create a lot of jobs....look at what it did for Ireland. My friends are losing their jobs left and right. This isn't a game anymore. I don't care about elections, talking points, and partisan talking heads. Something must be done, and if it means 8 years of Obama, so be it.
    beeron
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:54 AM, 01/29/2009
    Sort of like being sneaky and using fear to finance an unrelated war...except for the deadly consequences. " They finally stood up and said no to the massive pork bills"....Stood up to whom? Themselves? Did I miss something were we fiscally responsible from 2000 -2006? Who wust left the white house? Who was the majority in Congress for the majority of those two terms?
    gee1971
  • Comment removed.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:03 PM, 01/29/2009
    What is left are Conservatives, the Moderates have been spending like drunken sailors in Congress for the past eight years and they have been replaced by the same people wearing the name Democrats. Dems started running to the center, and many repubs did too. The Dems are actually leftists who want to tax and spend and control. Obama was elected because his supporters were motivated by hate, not change. The only change is that more Dems will control more of the government, There are the ruling elite. This is what has been elected, but many didn't realise it, or care. They were jsut told to 'get rid of Bush." They did.
    sleepy
  • Comment removed.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:10 PM, 01/29/2009
    So while tens of millions of Americans do not have a job, the Democrats have the gall to spend $300 milliion on family planning, $50 million on the Arts, pork, pork, and pork. Them Democrats are selling out America and the State Media of Polman looks the other way.
    CD75
  • Comment removed.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:17 PM, 01/29/2009
    Are you implying, Xi Jah, that we need a good, old-fashioned war to stimulate the country out of our current recession?
    Phrossty
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:27 PM, 01/29/2009
    Dick, I don't want to upset you and your liberal buddies, but the House Republicans are being smart about NOT voting for this 'pork-ulis'/stimulus bill! 11 Democrats voted with 100% the GOP... so the vote AGAINST the bill was bipartisan... the Democrats support of the bill was partisan! BTW, keep writing about 'digging holes'... the GOP should smile and continue to attack Obama's policies and the Democrats Socialist Policy Push!
    JGD84
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:30 PM, 01/29/2009
    What a surprise CD75 misses the entire point of the family planning additions to the stimulus package. Republicans only care about themselves! They don't care about the majority of the population (which is why they don't get their votes). Conservatism is as in-style as disco, and just about as relevant to modern-day America.
    the anti-CD75
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:32 PM, 01/29/2009
    "even though, as economists routinely point out, middle- and upper-class Americans are more likely to bank any new cash rather than pump it back into economy by spending it"- Dick, any middle or upper class american knows that "banking extra cash" by means of tax cuts provides the opportunity to invest in dividend earning stocks, bonds, and banks... in turn, spurring the economy.
    Platinum
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:32 PM, 01/29/2009
    I love the revisionist history that's written by you ditto heads on the right. Action is called for. We have tried tax cuts, cutting government, and deregulation for the last 30 years and what has that gotten us? The worst economy since Hoover. Obama taking a page from FDR's playbook wants a larger government role in the economy to spur some kind of economic recovery and what do the Repbublicans do. Nothing. Typical MO. If anybody bothered to actually read the historical record, the programs that FDR instituted in 33 were working to revive the economy until congress cut off funding driving the economy into a deeper depression. Get in line boys and girls, keep being obstructionist and you'll have a nice long time in the wilderness just like you did post 1932.


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About Dick Polman

Cited by the Columbia Journalism Review as one of the nation's top political reporters, and lauded by the ABC News political website as "one of the finest political journalists of his generation," Dick Polman is a national political columnist at the Philadelphia Inquirer. He is on the full-time faculty at the University of Pennsylvania, as "writer in residence." Dick has been a frequent guest on C-Span, MSNBC, CNN, NPR and the BBC. He covered the 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 presidential campaigns.

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All commentaries posted before April 18, 2008, can be accessed at www.dickpolman.blogspot.com.