Known knowns on the morning after
Diving some meaning from the '09 election results
Known knowns on the morning after
Dick Polman, Inquirer National Political Columnist
Before I undoubtedly extract profound meaning from last night's odd-year election results - and naturally I'll try to do so - I feel it first would be wise to acknowledge the limitations of this ritual exercise. Let's face it, most political commentators are congenitally conditioned to overanalyze the tea leaves.
For instance, in November 2001, the Democrats won resounding victories in both the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races. This happened during the first year of the George W. Bush presidency - and just seven weeks after 9/11, when Bush's popularity was in the stratosphere. So commentators naturally concluded that those twin Democratic victories, achieved despite Bush's political strength, surely had to be a sign that the Democrats would kick butt in the 2002 congressional elections. And yet, in the end, quite the opposite occurred.
But we scribes often can't resist the impulse to divine slippery truths. Indeed, on the eve of these '09 elections, readers were often warned about this. On Monday, The Associated Press cautioned that "the outcomes won’t predict next year’s midterm results.” But then the AP proceeded to predict that the outcome of the Virginia gubernatorial race "will be a key measure of how America feels and, perhaps more importantly, how independent voters are acting ahead of the 2010 elections.”
Why do we engage in this practice? Because, as the Columbia Journalism Review shrewdly noted on Monday, "it just makes politics more fun. Much as sports fans create extra meaning for games by seeing every choke or victory in moral terms, political journalists make elections more meaningful by threading them into a broader narrative....The political junkies who read these stories, of course, have all the same incentives to divine broader meaning." (OK, so it's your fault, too.)
So there you have it. And now we can proceed. To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, there are all kinds of unknown unknowns embedded in last night's results, and I will leave those alone. What follows are only what I can vouch for as the known knowns.
New Jersey. Contrary to the expected Republican spin out of Washngton, the firing of Jon Corzine is not a repudiation of President Obama. Even though the Garden State voters dumped their Democratic governor, they gave Obama a 57 percent approval rating in the exit polls. Low on people skills and slow to make decisions, Corzine was deeply unpopular even while Obama was winning Jersey by 20 points. Having said that, however, it's clear that Obama had no coattails in this race. He repeatedly stumped for Corzine in a bid to stoke the base, and he even sent his top pollster to buttress the Corzine campaign. (Obama really had no choice but to wade in.) Obama's presence was not enough to trump the home-grown perception that Corzine was a self-funding Goldman Sachs guy who had screwed things up in bad economic times - which obviously proves that Obama doesn't walk on water (stop the presses!). Meanwhile, lest anyone think that what happened last night in Jersey was unprecedented, remember that the state has done this before. In 1993, one year after helping to elect Democrat Bill Clinton, Jersey voters, ticked off about property taxes and stoked by conservative populism on talk radio, tossed out Democratic Gov. Jim Florio.
Virginia. Defying the party that controls the White House, Virginia's voters last night chose a governor from the opposing party - and this is supposed to be big news? Perhaps you'd like to guess when Virginians last chose a governor from the same party that controls the White House. The correct year would be...1973. So it's no surprise that Republican Bob McDonnell got the job last night. On the other hand, Republicans can rightly celebrate the fact that McDonnell handily won the independents - the same cohort that tilted for Obama a year ago, thereby helping Obama become the first Democratic presidential nominee to win the state since '64. McDonnell got the swing voters by emphasizing jobs, jobs, jobs, which suggests that the sour economy might be a winning issue for congressional Republican candidates next year - assuming, however, that their Democratic opponents screw up the economic issue as badly as Virginia Democratic gubbernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds did. The more immediate beneficial fallout for the GOP is that nervous conservative and moderate Democratic congressmen from swing districts might read the Virginia results as a rebuke to Obama (Virginians gave Obama a 49 percent approval rating in the exit polls) and thus stiffen their resistance to his push for health care reform.
The special congressional election in upstate New York. Sheesh, did the infighting Republicans screw this one up, or what? I'm going to turn back the clock nine days and quote myself: "Never underestimate the contemporary Republican propensity for circular firing squads." The GOP fissure in the 23rd congressional district "is splitting the non-Democratic vote and making it highly likely that the Democratic candidate, Bill Owens, will capture the seat that he normally would never win." Well, sure enough, Ownes won the vacant seat - in a district that had gone Republican in every House election dating back roughly 130 years. Grassroots conservatives, led by Sarah Palin and other luminaries on the right, had rebelled against the moderate Republican nominee, ultimately driving her out of the race (but not off the ballot); she was essentially supplanted last week by purist conservative candidate Doug Hoffman. Conservatives were all set to hail Hoffman's expected victory as proof that purity is a winning ticket...oops! But the Palin wing will insist anyway that big-tent moderates need not apply, that all of next year's Republican congressional nominees should be purists. The skirmishing could get nasty. Obama's woes notwithstanding, the GOP clearly hasn't begun to sort itself out.
Maine's gay marriage referendum. I wrote here yesterday: "Given the fact that New England is (the marriage equality movement's) strongest territory, a thumbs-down verdict tonight would truly be damaging, at least in the short run. Cultural conservatives would be able to spin the results this way: If the 'homosexual agenda' can't win via popular vote even in New England, where can it win?" Indeed. The equality crowd had all sorts of advantages - gay marriage legalization had already been enacted and signed, so the burden was on cultural conservatives to undo it; the pro-gay marriage TV ads smartly tapped into Maine's live-and-let-live traditions; the pro-gay side spent a lot more money than its foes - yet the Maine electorate still voted thumbs down on gay marriage. And the margin (roughly 53-47 percent) was almost the same as the margin in California's referendum one year ago. Until that day when the equality movement finally manages to win somewhere at the ballot box, cultural conservatives will continue to have bragging rights.
New York City mayor. Republican Michael Bloomberg, seeking a third term, spent $90 million of his own money in a race against a little-known Democratic opponent, indeed outspending that opponent by roughly 14-1...yet the mayor wound up with only 50.6 percent of the vote. What known known can we extract from that? Perhaps simply that voters these days are reflexively hostile to incumbents - especially those who are perceived as entitled and arrogant; and especially this guy, who reworked the New York term-limit rules so that he could run again. What if anything does this portend for incumbents and Obama and Republicans generally in '10? Now we're entering the realm of unknown unknowns, so I'll say no more.
Still Indendent-Here is a quote from Chris Christie on abortion " I am pro-life. Hearing the strong heartbeat of my unborn daughter 14 years ago at 13 weeks gestation had a profound effect on me and my beliefs. The life of every human being is precious. We must work to reduce abortions in New Jersey through laws such as parental notification, a 24-hour waiting period and a ban on partial-birth abortion." Source: Campaign website, www.christiefornj.com, "Issues" Jul 21, 2009- Still Independent- Here is Chris Christie on traditional marriage " I believe marriage should be exclusively between one man and one woman. While, I have no issue with same sex couples sharing contractual rights, I believe that marriage should remain the exclusive domain of one man and one woman. If a bill legalizing same sex marriage came to my desk as Governor, I would veto it. If the law were changed by judicial fiat, I would be in favor of a constitutional amendment on the ballot so that voters, not judges, would decide this important social question." Source: Campaign website, www.christiefornj.com, "Issues" Jul 21, 2009
- Still Independent- you said " No hard-right (or "real" conservative) could ever win a statewide election in NJ.".... Maybe I don't know what you mean by hard right but Christie was anti abortion, and supports tradtional marriage, low taxes, & fiscal responsiblity. I guess if you mean being pro life and supporting traditional marriage is all you bring to the table well then maybe you have a point. But Christie is proof that you can be all those things and still win in a very blue state where Democrats have an 800,000 voter advantage in party registration. Quite remarkable for a party that liberals declared to be on life support one year ago.
- New York 23rd was a telling result. How do you take a place that's not gone Democratic in 150 years and make it so -- let the current leadership of the republican party: Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck and Michelle Malkin pick your candidate (with their spineless elected officials following suit, as usual).— the stupid does burn
- SMike, it does sound like Christie is more moderate. For example, according to you he does agree with civil unions. Most hard-right (as Still puts it) proponents wouldn't agree to that either. Same for abortions. He wants to eliminate partial birth, put a 24-hour waiting period in place and inform parents. I'm not necessarily against any of those except the parental thing. Child abuse and incest do exist in our society. In some cases, informing parents might result in dire harm to the child, so I think such a circumstance should be taken into consideration. Anyway, for me, Christie does sound rather moderate. After all, reducing the number of abortions is a good goal to shoot for.— NigeltheMastiff
- "camtheman: congrats, you just passed your first test. you're on your way to becoming a spinmeister. before you know it you'll be a board certified Doctor-of-Spin. welcome to the club of those people that you ( used to ) despise." Jimmymax, you can spin this any way you want, but evrything I said is true. Scozzafava differed from her party on almost all major view of the party platform and supported the Democrat..I'm not sure how much clearer a left-center politician she could be. Recent Gallup and Rasmussen polls have shown that Conservatives outnumber Independents and Liberals, so we are in the majority and fired up in supporting a little-know grassroots conservative in NY. Again, conservatism is on the ascendancy. Nice try Jimmymax, but you better come to table next time with a better retort and actual facts.— camtheman
- Nigel-My point was he's not clamoring for gay marriage and abortion. Actually quite the opposite. I agree with you that he takes a soft peddle on those issues. But being Pro Life and Pro tradtional marriage should not disqualify anyone from winning an election and quite honestly it doesn't despite the view from the left that Republicans should abandon their stance on these issues. . What the left tries to do is marginalize Republicans for these beliefs. What really matters to me is ones stance on taxes, fiscal responsibility, small government, and national defense. In politics there are way to many pundits trying to gain political points over social issues. I think it is very shallow to criticize someone if they believe in life and traditional marriage.
- Here is a review of Polman's comments on the Virginia race from September " Until the voters learned about the McDonnell master's thesis. Suddenly, it's a wide open contest, basically because Virginia's female voters have concluded that the Republican candidate is rooted somewhere in the 1950s, back when society deemed it preferable that women be barefoot, pregnant, and homebound. Female Virginians have turned a runaway race into a nail-biter. McDonnell's 15-point August lead in the Washington Post's polling has been slashed to four points; elsewhere, the latest Rasmussen poll (conservatives always love to cite Rasmussen, which habitually oversamples Republicans) now shows McDonnell ahead by only two.".............. Kinda funny now isn't it? McDonnel won by 18 percentage points. Polman thought it remarkable that Deeds was within 2 points in Sepetember but now that McDonnel won by 18 points??? well, now it is just ordinary and meaningless
- Dick is"one of the finest political journalists of his generation," when it comes to regurgitating DNC talking points. As far as his knowledge of what's actually going on? Not so much.— tr88
- Publicly the liberals consider last nights election results meaningless and ordinary. But trust me, in private, their leadership is deeply troubled. Non Traditional marriage defeated again in a liberal state. GOP wins the in the liberal state of New Jersey. GOP wins Virginia by 18%. They're sweatin' it. Oh yes they are. Their spin-meisters were out in full force today. The look on their faces was priceless.
- Liberals are too busy demonizing all opposition to know what's really going on. Big Spending high taxing liberals will be metaphorically taken out and shot in 2010. Anyone want to bet me on Toomey/Specter assuming Specter wins? Nice call by DP on lauding Specter for his shrewd moveto switch Parties.— tr88
- TR88- If the polls are correct Spector is in big trouble
- Just to show how foolish liberals are, I just heard Chris matthews use the term "Conservative wing nuts" about 5 or 6 times during his show. He is the one who played "hardball" with "peace mom" Cindy Sheehan, America hater, friend of Hugo Chavez and to the left of Nancy Pelosi by choking up and begging her to run for Congress.— tr88
- I dont think he'll have a chance against Toomey. I think he's in for big trouble against Sestak. Fiscal Conservatism, lower spending no new taxes is the theme of the times. You wouldnt know it if you read the Inquirer for your news.— tr88
- Let's play "hardball". http://www.eyeblast.tv/public/video.aspx?v=Gdnz6U2G8z— tr88
Cited by the Columbia Journalism Review as one of the nation's top political reporters, and lauded by the ABC News political website as "one of the finest political journalists of his generation," Dick Polman is a national political columnist at the Philadelphia Inquirer. He is on the full-time faculty at the University of Pennsylvania, as "writer in residence." Dick has been a frequent guest on C-Span, MSNBC, CNN, NPR and the BBC. He covered the 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 presidential campaigns.
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