In search of the old magic
Can Obama inspire his '08 voters to save the Democrats this year?
In search of the old magic
Dick Polman, Inquirer National Political Columnist
The Democratic strategy for surviving the '10 midterm elections was spelled out this morning in a new video message starring Barack Obama. It's no mystery what he wants to do - rekindle the '08 magic - though it's debatable whether he can pull it off.
He says he wants to "make sure the same people who were inspired to vote for the first time in 2008 go back to the polls in 2010....This year, we’re going to reconnect with voters like Claudia Schulz. At 29 years old, Claudia had never been involved in the political process because she didn't think one person could make a difference. But in 2008, Claudia joined millions of other supporters like you and made her first-ever trip to the polls."He says "the stakes are higher than ever" in 2010, because the Republicans, if successful in November, stand poised "to undo all that we have accomplished." To thwart a GOP victory, he needs "to make sure that young people, African Americans, Latinos, and women, who powered our victory in 2008, stand together once again," and "make sure that first-time voters in 2008 make their voices heard again in November."
This is a frank admission that the Democrats are in serious trouble with the kinds of voters - older, whiter - who typically show up in disproportionate numbers in midterm elections. Obama is basically saying that Democrats can minimize their losses only if they can somehow bring out the kinds of voters - particularly the young, and people of color - who historically have rarely bothered to show up for the midterms.
This could be a daunting task. Obama was wildly popular among young people and first-time voters; on election day in 2008, he drew roughly 65 percent of the under-30 crowd, and roughly 70 percent of the first-timers. But he's not on the ballot this November, and young people (along with first-timers, an overlapping group) don't feel the same personal connection with their Democratic lawmakers (assuming they can even identify their lawmakers). Nor did those voters show up in significant numbers for the '09 Democratic gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey and Virginia; or for the Democratic senatorial candidate in the Massachusetts special election this past January.
This is why Obama, in the video message currently being emailed to the 13 million names on the Obama grassroots mailing list, is trying to put his own face on the '10 elections, to frame these elections as a choice between sustaining his agenda or allowing the Republicans to obstruct it. In essence, he's trying to stoke his '08 followers by nationalizing the '10 contests, by making it all very personal.
The perils of this strategy are obvious. The idealism and novelty of '08 may be very tough to replicate. Young people and first-timers - many of whom, by definition, are not well schooled in the incremental frustrations of politics; many of whom are registered independents - may well be disappointed by Obama's pace of change. And on the minority front, Latino voters in particular may well be averse to Obama's pitch for '10 participation unless the Democrats speedily fulfill their promise to enact immigration reform (good luck with that one).
The problem is, Obama's Democratic congressional candidates may need maximum help from all those '08 "surge voters," because otherwise this midterm electorate will resemble the typically older and whiter midterm electorates of previous cycles. And this year, the older/whiter/angrier cohort is poised to punish the majority party. Obama wants to put his face on the '10 races in order to re-inspire his surge voters, but the risk is that, by doing so, he'll make himself a bigger target for the traditional off-year voters - particularly the seniors, who always vote heavily in midterms, and who have never liked him in the first place. (In '08, he drew just 45 percent of the voters aged 65 and older.)
The Democrats plan to spend $50 million on this ambitious bid to broaden the midterm electorate - in essence, to find out (in the words of national party chairman Tim Kaine) whether "the magic has evaporated." The White House apparently feels that this strategy is the only way to cut Democratic losses in November; on paper, the Democratic strategists might achieve that goal if they can boost surge-voter turnout by just a few percentage points.
Politically, however, this is a very high-risk move (these days, aren't they all?). If those surge voters ignore Obama's call to arms and opt to stay home in November, a major Democratic defeat will be tantamount to a thumbs-down referendum on Obama himself - because he will have invited it. And his people would be at pains to spin such a defeat any other way.
Liberals are popular until what goes on in their heads becomes reality.— jmc
J.O.B.S. What is the messiah doing?— CD75- Liberals are popular when they try to make a vision into reality. Unfortunately, the Grande Olde USA has a vacuum at the top. We need more educated people of integrity on our ballots. Now.— Philly-Mom
- Is this shout out to blacks and Latinos a form of racial politics? Funny how, at a naturalization ceremony for immigrants who received their citizenship by serving in the military, Obama said the Arizona law against illegal immigration was not depicting our nation's "fairness". Is it fair that those receiving their citizenship on that date went through proper channels while those coming here illegally are being given a pass by this administration?— tom - wilmington, de
- philly-mom, right you are, which is why since passsing healthcare reform their numbers have skyrocketed, right?— tom - wilmington, de
- As opposed to the pace of change under Bush? I believe the slogan was "All is well, no need to worry".
- Philly-Mom: There's a lot of educated people in Congress and the White House who think spending a trillion dollars on healthcare reform will actually lower the budget deficit and control costs.— jmc
- tom: while I greatly appluad those who have come here legally, and wish we enforced our current laws more forcefully (especially against employers), under the Arizona law, when, exactly, does "REASONABLE SUSPICION EXISTS THAT THE PERSON IS AN ALIEN WHO IS UNLAWFULLY PRESENT IN THE UNITED STATES" (sorry for caps, from text of law) ? Other than someone's color or language, what exactly would lead a law enforcement officer (who I feel sorry for in all this mess) to believe that someone was an illegal versus legal immigrant? And why aren't the civil libertarians, who have screamed in the past about a national ID card, fine with the "Papers Please!" provision here?— still_independent
Comment removed.- Obama is playing the race card and I think this is despicable. I will never ever vote for him again for anything. He has just shown the world just how much of a racist that he is.— frankfj
Unemployment is up. W's record deficit was tripled in Obama's first year. We have a new Federal mandate that will cost seniors their coverage (in the short term) and cost the Fed billions more than anticipated. Why wouldn't the American people want to give the Democrats two more years controlling the Congress? Might be different if some actual cost cutting were attempted or, heaven forfend, reformation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Guess the patronage is too strong of a political tool. Wouldn't care to write about that, would you Mr. Polman?- still_independent, putting the cart before the horse, aren't you? I believe we should see how the law is enforced before criticizing the enforcement agencies for their actions. However, in Arizona there is cross border drug trafficking, kidnappings, murders, gun battles, for which the state has been asking the federal government for help for months, with no response. Action needed to be taken by the state, 70% of those surveyed favor this legislation, and before demonizing the legislation, perhaps we should see what effects it has first.— tom - wilmington, de
- It is surprising that Polman has not written about the chief actuary for Medicare issuing a report refuting most of the claims made by supporters of Obamacare, namely that cost will skyrocket, premiums will increase, and services will be cut. Congress is even going to debate a bill giving federal regulators authority to deny health insurance premium increases and control costs (possibly by price controls, which is also being debated in Massachusetts - the prototype for Obamacare). Why the need for such a bill if Obamacare was the panacea we were led to believe it was?— tom - wilmington, de
- tom: "and before demonizing the legislation, perhaps we should see what effects it has first."... You mean like healthcare ? :)— still_independent
- tom: "and before demonizing the legislation, perhaps we should see what effects it has first." ... You mean like healthcare ? :)— still_independent
Cited by the Columbia Journalism Review as one of the nation's top political reporters, and lauded by the ABC News political website as "one of the finest political journalists of his generation," Dick Polman is a national political columnist at the Philadelphia Inquirer. He is on the full-time faculty at the University of Pennsylvania, as "writer in residence." Dick has been a frequent guest on C-Span, MSNBC, CNN, NPR and the BBC. He covered the 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 presidential campaigns.
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