Friday quartet
On various fronts:
Friday quartet
Dick Polman, Inquirer National Political Columnist
On various fronts:It's hard to overstate the importance of the impending House floor vote on health care reform, now scheduled for Saturday night. The moment of truth is finally at hand. For the ruling Democrats, this is akin to a standing at home plate in the late innings of a crucial World Series game; either they put the barrel of the bat on the ball, or they might as well hit the showers. If they somehow suffer more than 40 rank-and-file defections and the reform bill goes down (seemingly unlikely), the whole timetable for bringing a final measure to President Obama by the close of '09 will be upended. And then we're into an election year; fence-sitting politicians are congenitally averse to taking any legislative risks in an election year. So it's probably now or never for the Democratic leaders to figure out how to tweak the reform package in ways that will make it liberal enough for their liberal lawmakers and conservative enough for their Blue Dog and moderate lawmakers. Such is the prime challenge of a big-tent party. No doubt the Republicans would prefer to be running things, rather than naysaying from the sidelines; on other hand, because they are more ideologically homogeneous, they don't have the headaches that come with trying to herd various breeds of cats.
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Speaking of the House Republicans, they unveiled their own health care reform proposal the other day. Finally. It's a meaningless gesture, given the fact that they held power for eight years while one of their own party brethren sat in the White House, yet never showed the slightest interest in the issue. And sure enough, the new GOP proposal is a veritable blueprint for the status quo. The Congressional Budget Office has already checked it out: "By 2019, (we) estimate, the number of non-elderly people without health insurance would be reduced by about 3 million relative to current law, leaving about 52 million non-elderly residents uninsured." The GOP proposal wouldn't even prohibit the insurance companies from denying coverage to Americans with pre-existing health conditions. No wonder Americans continue to trust the Democrats far more than the Republicans on health care, even with all the public skepticism about the Obama agenda. Nor did the House Republicans help themselves yesterday, when they pandered to a crowd (bused to the Capitol by a corporate front group) that was heavily populated by the usual suspects yelling about Obama's Nazi/communist/Kenyan heritage. It was pathetic to watch Republican leader John Boehner bond with the loons by declaring that health care reform is "the greatest threat to freedom that I have seen in the 19 years I've been in Washington." Well, gee. Until Boehner enlightened me, I had assumed that, in all those years, the crashing of a planeful of innocent Americans into the Pentagon had been the greatest assault on freedom. I stand corrected.
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Speaking of the people who are really running the GOP these days, consider Club for Growth, the well-heeled organization of economic conservatives that has made it a mission to purge the party of all ideological diversity. Fresh from its debacle this past week in upstate New York - where the group drove a moderate Republican out of an easily winnable congressional race by pumping a million bucks into the candidacy of a conservative who wound up losing - Club for Growth is now doubling down by targeting Charlie Crist, the electable Republican senatorial candidate in Florida. Crist is the (relatively) moderate Florida governor who made the inexcusable mistake of welcoming federal stimulus money (as well as Obama personally) last winter; today, fearful of the right's wrath, he's trying to play down that behavior - and Club for Growth is running Florida TV ads to ensure that '10 Republican primary voters won't forget. Club's efforts will boost Crist's conservative challenger, ex-Florida House speaker Marco Rubio, and further ratchet up internal GOP tensions between the grassroots right and the more pragmatic party establishment. The same thing seems likely to happen next year in contested Republican primaries, for both House and Senate seats, in California, Illinois, North Carolina, Kentucky, Connecticut, New Hampshire, and New Jersey. Is this healthy for the party? Nor according to the reliably Republican Wall Street Journal editorial page: "A majority political party requires a far more diverse coalition than the audience of your average right-wing blogger or talk show host....If conservatives now revolt against every GOP candidate who disagrees with them (on key issues), nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid will keep their majorities for a very long time." Tell that to Rush and Sarah and Glenn and Club.
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Regarding Tuesday's Virginia gubernatorial contest, it's too simplistic to say that Virginians, having supported Obama a year ago, have now repudiated Obama by picking a Republican governor. Such was the flawed theme of many news reports. Based on my look at the exit polls, it is far more accurate to say that a different Virginia electorate - far more conservative than the state's '08 electorate - showed up on Tuesday. When asked who they supported in the '08 presidential election, 51 percent of this week's Virginia voters named John McCain, and only 43 percent named Obama. That's a virtual reversal of the '08 statewide electorate's verdict: 53 percent Obama, 46 percent McCain. A comparison of the two electorates makes it clear that conservatives were motivated to show up and vote, while the '08 Obama voters simply stayed home. Some were probably ill-inspired by the uninspiring Democrat for governor, Creigh Deeds. But my educated guess is that far more were simply dispirited by the general state of things, particularly the economy. And economic anxiety played a big role in Jon Corzine's New Jersey gubernatorial defeat as well; according to the Jersey exit polls, 56 percent of the voters were "very worried" about how the economy will perform in the year ahead, and those worriers broke for Republican Chris Christie, 61-34. As I said here a few weeks ago, incumbent parties tend to get blamed in bad economic times, and today's new jobless figures - topping 10 percent nationwide - won't help the Democrats either. Obama economic adviser Christina Romer admitted this morning: "Having the unemployment rate reach double-digits is a stark reminder of how much work remains to be done before American families see the job gains and reduced unemployment that they need and deserve." If the Democrats want to minimize their losses in the '10 congressional elections, they need to post perceivable job gains by next spring. They have a very narrow time window.
Xi: Of course you think that Michael Gerson writes "good stuff." He is a former speechwriter for your idol, George W. Bush.He is also a religious fundamentalist.— mxlplk- Still Independent- Didn't you just admit a few posts ago that" On election day, it's bad enough I have to choose amongst candidates I know nothing about - I am electing them to offices that i have no clue what they are." So on the one hand your the high minded informed candidate who I guess is pulling levers for freeholder based on what? I know the Democrat is going to be for high taxes and spending so I vote for the Republican. That way maybe I have at least a 20% chance of good candidate.
- this site needs an edit button. Anyway I meant to say high minded informed voter not candidate in my last post
- Comrade Polman lashes at at the Club for Growth, but he forgets to talk about the dems own internal problems on who is the "right" candidate - See Obama's meddling in the NY Governor's race and now Patterson's new ads running for gov. Dick, can you have a shred of objectivity? Why are you so biased?— Comrade Noodlehead
- Still Indy: Tell the 1 in 10 Americans who do not have a job that the unemployment figure is merely a "pschyological" figure. You sound like you actually write Obama's press releases. Obviously, you have a job.— Comrade Noodlehead
Comment removed.- "Texas's Rick Perry and Mars's Newt Gingrich have an op-ed in The Washington Post this morning presenting the Lone Star State as an example of all the whiz-bang health-care innovation being generated at the state level. "Texas," they write, "has adopted approaches to controlling health-care costs while improving choice, advancing quality of care and expanding coverage." Sounds awesome! The evidence is a tort reform bill that the state passed in 2003. And how's that working out? Well, Texas currently leads the nation in the rate of uninsured, with more than 25 percent of the state's residents lacking health-care coverage. If you limit the analysis to residents under age 65, which takes seniors covered by the national (ie, socialist) Medicare program out of the data, 28 percent of Texans are uninsured." AND IT BURNS!!!— the stupid does burn
- TOM SAID: Talvenada....yeah, a press conference attended by 20,000 people. As to Olberman, his only job is to trash Republicans/Conservatives. If anyone ever ran the "truth-o-meter" on his show it would show "pants on fire" every time. What do you expect from a guy who got his journalism degree from an agricultural school.................TOM, A few words for you: Rush, Beck, Hannity, Levin, Coulter, and O'Reilly. Sorry, Tom, KO is not in their league when it comes to lies. Only 20,000? Are you sure it wasn't 2 million? Why offer such a low number? Beck and Rush wouldn't go THAT low. You better get your with the PURITY, like Backman.— Talvenada
- From a letter to the Ways and Means Committee from the CBO about the House healthcare bill "For instance, a single person with income of $26,500 in 2016 (225 percent of the FPL) would pay a premium of about $1,900 (after getting a premium subsidy of 64 percent) and could expect to pay another $900 in cost sharing (net of federal subsidies); thus, the average payment by such a person for the premium and cost sharing combined is projected to be $2,800, or about 11 percent of income. A family of four with income of about $54,000 (also 225 percent of the FPL in 2016) could expect to pay about the same share of its income for premiums and cost sharing." So, under Pelosicare, a family of four making $54,000 would pay 11% ($5,940) for healthinsurance. The CBO estimates "Although premiums under H.R. 3962 would vary by geographic area to reflect differences in average spending for health care and would also vary by age, the table shows the approximate national average for that lower-cost reference plan—about $5,300 for single policies and about $15,000 for family policies in 2016." So much for reduced costs.— tom - wilmington, de
- Here is the link to that CBO letter http://cbo.gov/ftpdocs/106xx/doc10691/hr3962SubsidiesRangelLtr.pdf— tom - wilmington, de
- Over 10% unemployment; 6 plus months since the stimulus took effect; another costly partisan healthcare bill that the Dems have once again failed to provide a 72-hour waiting period, and all Tal chooses to argue is how many protesters arrived at the Capitol Building yesterday. Sad Tal, sad— camtheman
- Tal...way to address the issue. Polman had already covered the Fox guys, but did not address the others.— tom - wilmington, de
- still...good analysis of how the rate is calculated. However, an increase of .4% when it was expected to only increase .1% is fairly significant. I am sure the net estimated 190,000 people who lost jobs last month would be glad to know it is statistically insignificant. However, my only reason for bringing it up at all is because Obama said we needed the stimulus so unemployment would not get above 8%, and it is over 10 and expected to rise further. Earlier today Obama said his economic team was working on ways to stimulate the economy, like spending on infrastructure and schools and weatherizing government buildings. Weren't those things in the stimulus bill passed this past February?— tom - wilmington, de
- CAM: It wasn't an argument, and it was a carryover from yesterday. I don't debate Conse 'Pubs, let alone argue any point. That includes Obama being an American, because half of them will say that's their opinion, while the other half don't agree. But they infer it's a valid point. If Obama as an American is not a winnable argument, than what's the point? Why would I bother on any other issue? You have all the answers, answer my last 2 questions.— Talvenada
- TOM: Not much of an effort from you, old boy. You talk about KO being a liar, when Rush said Obama was responsible for the economy in 9/08...... As for issues, read my post to Cam, because it applies to you also.......I know, Rush is an entertainer, Hannity does commentary, but MSNBC has no commentary in YOUR eyes.— Talvenada
Cited by the Columbia Journalism Review as one of the nation's top political reporters, and lauded by the ABC News political website as "one of the finest political journalists of his generation," Dick Polman is a national political columnist at the Philadelphia Inquirer. He is on the full-time faculty at the University of Pennsylvania, as "writer in residence." Dick has been a frequent guest on C-Span, MSNBC, CNN, NPR and the BBC. He covered the 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 presidential campaigns.
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