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Tuesday, November 24, 2009

 

 


With respect to the future party composition of the U.S. Senate, the Democrats' top goal is to emerge unscathed from the 2010 elections and preserve their numerical dominance, which (at least on some issues) now stands at 60 seats. But, in the tradition of Democrats behaving like Democrats, they appear determined these days to make life difficult for themselves in a number of states, by waging the kind of intramural strife that drains party money, divides the partisans, and provides ammo to the Republicans.

Pennsylvania, of course, is Exhibit A, as evidenced yet again by the latest skirmishes featuring Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak, combatants for the '10 Senate Democratic nomination. The more they try to outflank each other on the left, as they vie for Democratic votes in the Democrats-only primary scheduled for May, the more they potentially cede the center to Pat Toomey, the conservative Republican who will meet the Democratic victor next autumn.

In the early months of 2010, Specter-Sestak will be the nation's marquee Democratic smackdown. But there will be other Senate intramurals. Two Democrats are already clawing at each other in Kentucky, each vying for the party nomination and the opportunity to snatch the Senate seat being vacated by conservative Republican Jim Bunning. Two Democrats are fighting each other in Illinois, where another Senate seat is open (thanks to the imminent departure of Democrat Roland Burris). Two Democrats are poised to battle each other in Colorado, where the primary isn't staged until August, thus giving the party very little time to reunite for the autumn finals in a swing state.

Granted, the Democrats are probably less fractious these days than the Republicans, who appear to be enmeshed in some sort of ideological identity crisis (as evidenced by the GOP's current Florida Senate intramurals, outlined in this space one week ago). Yesterday, in fact, the Republican National Committee agreed to consider a resolution imposing a purity test on all party candidates, potentially requiring them to swear fealty to a minimum of eight Reaganesque principles (including "lower deficits and lower taxes" and "opposing amnesty for illegal immigrants," - a typical example of the GOP's willful amnesia, given the fact that Ronald Reagan raised taxes a number of times, racked up deficits, and gave amnesty to illegal immigrants). In the months ahead, this proposed purity test is likely to further ratchet up internal Republican tensions.

But such tensions are to be expected, because the GOP is the out party. What's the excuse for the in party? The two Kentucky Democrats are currently accusing each other of being liars, sleazebags, flunkies of the natural gas industry (the enemy of Kentucky coal), and tax cheaters - thus supplying the '10 Republican opponent with all kinds of mud to hurl at whoever wins the primary.

The Illinois situation is equally dire. This is the Senate seat once filled by Barack Obama; then it went to Burris, with all his baggage. When appointee Burris agreed not to run on his own, Obama and his lieutenants tried to tap state attorney general Lisa Madigan, but she said no. The vacuum has now been filled by two underwhelming candidates, Chicago official David Hoffman and state treasurer (and apparent frontrunner) Alexi Giannoulias. Hoffman has been busy trying to paint Giannoulias as a sleazy banker who can't win in November '10 - because, among other things, the Giannoulias family bank (where he worked prior to becoming state treasurer) once made loans to convicted felon/fundraiser Tony Rezko, and that he oversaw various bank loans to convicted felons with alleged mob ties. If Giannoulias wins the primary in February, that kind of material would be grist for the Republicans as they seek to capture a Senate seat in this normally blue state.

And speaking of blue states, we have the latest Democratic primary skirmishings in Pennsylvania. Late last week, chameleon Senator Arlen Specter, mindful of his need to shed his old Republican plumage and move sharply to the left, publicly morphed into a dove and announced that he was opposed to sending any new troops to Afghanistan. He then said, "When you have Congressman Sestak calling for an increase, a major increase, I think his view would be in the minority" - meaning, of course, the minority of grassroots Democratic sentiment. (Sestak has said that he supports "a measured increase" of troops.)

But Sestak, determined not to be outflanked on the left, struck back yesterday by tying Specter to Sarah Palin - a useful exercise, since the typical Democratic primary voter sees her as a joke. The new Sestak video shows Specter on the stump with Palin in 2008, and telling Chris Matthews on Hardball that the McCain-Palin ticket was "the better choice." A Sestak-sponsored website quips, "That kind of loyalty deserves a place in (Palin's) bestseller."

If Specter and Sestak keep veering leftward during their primary contest, it could create an opening for Toomey, the Republican candidate, to seize the center. Toomey is already working to downplay his fiscal and social conservativism in favor of a more "center-right" profile, and he certainly has the space to pull it off, given the fact that (according to polls) 53 percent of Pennsylvanians have never even heard of him. So put Pennsylvania on the list with Illinois as a potential blue state pickup for the Senate GOP.

But, with respect to this intraparty strife, there's at least one short-term upside for the Democrats: It's helping to keep Blanche Lincoln in line.

The centrist Democratic senator from Arkansas voted to send health care reform to the floor on Saturday night; her eleventh hour vote was privotal. Had she voted with the Republicans, the odds of her facing a 2010 primary challenge from the left would have exponentially increased. Indeed, Arkansas Lt. Gov. Bill Halter seems poised to pounce if she sides with the Republicans to block health reform in the crucial votes to come. (Halter has already implicitly warned Lincoln, warning on TV last week that Arkansans "really want action" on health reform. "They're growing very impatient with all the talk.") And grassroots liberal groups, notably moveon.org, are ready to finance a primary challenge if Lincoln stiffs the party leaders. In these polarized times, perhaps it can best be said that both parties have their purity tests.
 

 

Posted by Dick Polman @ 11:17 AM  Permalink | 89 comments
Comments   
Posted 11:39 AM, 11/24/2009
Rauol Duke
I will put my money behind those who oppose health care reform. As for Specter, I expect him to gracefully bow out before the primary for health reasons.
Posted 11:59 AM, 11/24/2009
Mr. Smith
Specter isn't going to make it to the 2010 general election. Tragic squash accident.
Posted 12:45 PM, 11/24/2009
Eric_in_CA
Isn't it a problem when political officials are considering their re-electability when deciding how to vote on a given issue, or worrying about how the rest of the party will perceive them? Since I'm not an encyclopedia of US History, at what point did public service shift from a civic duty to an occupation?
Posted 12:46 PM, 11/24/2009
tom - wilmington, de
Of course, it matters little that Obama lost Arkansas by 20 points and, when voters are asked about Lincoln if she votes in favor of healthcare, she loses her seat by 13 points. 64% of Arkansans are opposed to this healthcare bill, so from what should Lincoln be more afraid?
Posted 12:47 PM, 11/24/2009
tom - wilmington, de
Do representatives owe their loyalty to the people who elected them or to their party?
Posted 01:30 PM, 11/24/2009
CutterMcCool
Seems if what you say is accurate, Tom, Lincoln is a dead chick either way. Better to go down for the worthy cause of healthcare reform than trying to save your backside for a general election you won't survive a primary to be in. As for Arkansas, being one of the poorest states in the nation, opposing healthcare reform, all that can be said is, maybe the title of that Thomas Frank book should have been "What's the Matter with Arkansas?"
Posted 01:47 PM, 11/24/2009
tom - wilmington, de
In my opinion Lincoln seals her fate only if she votes in favor of healthcare. If she opposes it, I believe she would survive a primary. Arkansas does not seem like a wildly liberal state.
Posted 01:58 PM, 11/24/2009
camtheman
"Toomey is already working to downplay his fiscal and social conservativism in favor of a more "center-right" profile, and he certainly has the space to pull it off, given the fact that (according to polls) 53 percent of Pennsylvanians have never even heard of him." I hedge to bet that a majority of residents outside the Philly suburbs have never heard of Sestak either. Why wouldn't he have some kind of advantage against an unpopular incumbent like Specter, based upon your logic Polman?
Posted 02:13 PM, 11/24/2009
HandNik
This type of infighting, pandering to the primary, and lifelong legislative employment is one of the many issues of an outdated Constitution. It was great when people didn't usually live past 50. Also, having a government form a coalition seems to work out much better than the U.S. system. Unfortunately, most Americans will not admit the fact to themselves.
Posted 02:54 PM, 11/24/2009
pj katauskas
DP - your interest in the R "purity test" as evidence of an "identity crisis" is itself interesting. The Ds have long had a de facto "purity test." If you don't think so, ask Joe Lieberman, who supported virtually every D position except the surge in Iraq. And for the defection on one issue, look what happened. True, the Ds don't today have an identity crisis, because so far they are pretty much lockstep Obamaites. The "reluctant" D Sens on Obamacare will ultimately toe the line.
Posted 03:43 PM, 11/24/2009
CD75
Speaking of "democrats being democrats", tonights orgy with Hollywood celebs galore of a state dinner is an insult to the 10.2% who have no work and the rest who are underemployed. How much does this orgy of excess cost? The kings dine in fancy, while the peasants foot the bill and live in squalor.
Posted 03:53 PM, 11/24/2009
pj katauskas
And I read the not a single R leader is invited. Is this part of BO's "post-partisan" approach to politics? Give me a break!
Posted 04:15 PM, 11/24/2009
tom - wilmington, de
Mitch McConnell was invited but chose not to attend. Bobby Jindal is also invited because of his Indian heritage.
Posted 04:19 PM, 11/24/2009
tom - wilmington, de
Hats off to the New York Times for refusing to print any of the global warming e-mails obtained in climategate. These e-mails show collusion among scientist to commit a fraud against people and governments, hiding of data used to reach their conclusions, deleting of e-mails to prevent disclosure through the Freedom of Information acts, and downright faulty scientific research. The Times refused to print the e-mails because they were obtained illegaly and not meant for public disclosure. Shame the Times did not have the same moral dignity about the NSA surveillance program, which they obtained illegaly and was not meant for public disclosure. It just shows that when the liberal agenda is threatened, what Polman describes as the "conservative media" circles the wagons. Are the big three networks even covering this story?
Posted 04:24 PM, 11/24/2009
swedesboromike
Tom From Wilimington - You asked " Do representatives owe their loyalty to the people who elected them or to their party?"...... I think they try to have a foot in both camps. Take Blanche Lincoln for instance. Here vote to debate the healthcare bill was a vote for it's passage. She'll vote against it in the end but it's already too late. As far as I know healthcare passes with 51 votes. So the party leadership only ever needed her vote to debate the bill. Blanche will save her political skin by unltimately voting against the bill, with Harry Reid's and Obama's blessing of course. Because, so long as they have 51 votes they will allow a few " blue " dogs to vote against the bill. It's certainly couting on the dimwitedness of the electorate, which is sad, but it seems to be working for the Democrats. With a derelict media they get away with pretty much anything.
About Dick Polman

Cited by the Columbia Journalism Review as one of the nation's top political reporters, and lauded by the ABC News political website as "one of the finest political journalists of his generation," Dick Polman is a national political columnist at the Philadelphia Inquirer. He is on the full-time faculty at the University of Pennsylvania, as "writer in residence." Dick has been a frequent guest on C-Span, MSNBC, CNN, NPR and the BBC. He covered the 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 presidential campaigns.

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All commentaries posted before April 18, 2008, can be accessed at www.dickpolman.blogspot.com.