"Adventures in fantasyland"
The GOP cry of "Repeal" is unrealistic and politically dumb
"Adventures in fantasyland"
Dick Polman, Inquirer National Political Columnist
Having lost their grand crusade to deny Americans the same health care security that is standard practice everywhere else in the western democratic world, the Republicans and their allies can't seem to agree what to do next.
One natural impulse is to burrow even deeper into dreamworld. For instance, a vocal faction - which includes Mitt Romney, John McCain, Jim DeMint, Bill Kristol, and the tea partiers - is already hoisting the banner of Repeal, insisting that Congress rise up and wipe the new law off the books. But another faction - which includes ex-Bush speechwriter David Frum, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce - insists that any repeal effort would be a colossal waste of time.
Romney is perhaps the most vociferous repealer, arguing yesterday on a conservative blog that the health reform needs to be reversed because President Obama "has betrayed his path to the nation." (As a 2012 GOP presidential hopeful, Romney needs to be shrill on this issue, lest conservatives notice that Obama's health reforms closely resemble the Massachusetts health reforms that he himself succcessfully championed as governor.) He was joined yesterday by McCain, who, having lost another one to Obama, apparently wants to further extend his streak; on TV, he declared, "We're going to repeal this." And fellow senator Jim "Waterloo" DeMint, having failed along with his colleagues in the quest to "break" Obama, said yesterday that he intends to push for repeal legislation.
I have to believe that these people are not as dumb as they seem, that deep down they are fully aware that the so-called repeal crusade is just raw meat for the dimmest denizens of the conservative base. It's an emotional gimmick to keep the base pumped during the '10 election season, which probably explains why 35 GOP Senate candidates (including Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania) have taken the repeal pledge.
Anyone with a fundamental grasp of math would quickly realize that the talk of repeal is worthless. Until at least January 2013, and quite possibly until January 2017, the guy in the White House would veto any such bill. And for however long Obama serves as president, the Republicans would need 67 Senate votes and 290 House votes in order to override such a veto. Even if the Republicans did manage to elect a president in 2012, it strains credulity to think that the party can achieve a 60-seat Senate supermajority for repeal. No wonder the U.S. Chamber of Commerce president said yesterday of repeal, "We're not going to spend any capital on that."
Ex-Bush speechwriter and conservative blogger David Frum wrote online yesterday, "No illusions, please. This bill will not be repealed." Frum is frequently mocked by many of his brethren because of his habitual attentiveness to empirical reality, and this may be yet another instance. Frum righly scoffs at the repeal strategy ("adventures in fantasyland"), not just because the congressional math is so daunting, but because it fails even as raw-meat politics.
Frum points out that any Republican who votes for repeal would essentially be voting to again permit health insurers to deny coverage on the basis of pre-existing conditions. He warns that any Republican arguing for repeal is essentially arguing "to banish 25 year olds from their parents' insurance coverage." Any Republican pushing for repeal is essentially saying that we should "reopen the 'doughnut hole' and charge seniors more for prescription drugs."
For those reasons alone, Democrats should hope and pray that the GOP talks up repeal between now and November - because it's dumb politics to try to take away people's benefits. Democrats can therefore challenge their pro-repeal opponents: Why do you want to reinstate lifetime caps on health insurance coverage? Why do you want to again allow insurance companies to dump the people who get sick? Why do you want to eliminate the new tax credits for small businesses that provide coverage to their workers?
(The dimmest pro-repeal conservatives will no doubt trumpet the new CNN poll, which shows - on the surface - that 59 percent of Americans oppose the health care reform law, while only 39 percent support it. But spend two seconds on the fine print, and the figures look very different. Thirteen percent of those opposing the law happen to believe that it's not liberal enough - which puts the conservative foes in the minority. And when poll respondents were asked whom they trust most to handle health care - Obama or the Republicans in Congress - they chose Obama, 51 to 39 percent.)
Also, with respect to this repeal issue, Democrats can put the squeeze on those GOP candidates - such as Ohio Senate hopeful Rob Portman - who thus far have declined to take any stance. If the holdouts finally say yes to repeal, Democrats can challenge them with the aformentioned questions. If they say no to repeal, they risk being hammered by the talk-radio teeth-gnashers in their own camp.
Speaking of Rush Limbaugh, he issued a cri de coeur for repeal yesterday. Frum, the conservative blogger, is not surprised; in his words, the GOP's "abject and irreversible defeat" on health care is actually "a huge win for the conservative entertainment industry," which thrives on polarization and fantasy remedies.
Frum writes that, in the aftermath of the health reform defeat, the Limbaugh camp's "listeners and viewers will now be even more enraged, even more frustrated, even more disappointed in everybody except the responsibility-free talkers on television and radio. For them, it's mission accomplished. For the (conservative) cause they purport to represent, it's Waterloo, all right: Ours."
Need I say more?
-------
Temporarily sick of politics? Read my new freelance piece, a farewell to America's first TV-marketed cultural icon.
I believe the rationale for the claim that costs will be lowered is that by adding so many more people,the bet is that most of the those people will be healthy ones. If they are healthy, they won't be utilizing costs in the system --- thus driving down the overall costs. I don't believe this will turn out to be true, and I certainly don't believe the CBO numbers. Hopefully, if will help in keeping costs from rising as sharply as they have over the last 10 years.— yobill626- Hate to have to agree with DP but repeal does seem like a longshot. But perhaps the symbolism of trying to repeal it will redound to the Rs benefit. Hard to day.— pj katauskas
- Oops, meant hard to "say," not "day." But given the BO signing of the bill, that probably works too.— pj katauskas
- MOCKY: It was on CNN & MSNBC, but how could it happen if you didn't see it? .............. It's easy to see with eyes closed, misunderstanding all you see. ........... BTW, I like the successful-equals-right Conse 'Pub enjoying the fruits on his labors, while the phony stories are coming from extremist Lib blogs. Good one!! Break-no-sweat brilliance is your usual effortless best.— Talvenada
- Oh my internet life how gullible art thou? How easy would it be for the DNC to infiltrate the tea partiers and do such a thing? It's a bunch of average schmoes campaigning against government largesse. All you have to do is take a few left wing activists and have them pretend to be in the group and have them hurling racial insults then fram the entire movement as racist. It's actually rather simple.— Alvenada
- New Fox News Poll: 50% opposed, 40% very opposed, 30% extremely opposed. There you have it, 120% of the people are opposed. Case closed, Liberals.— pic man
- MOCKY: So, ALL situations of bad behavior are from Conse 'Pub enemies infiltrating the little old ladies of the tea parties, and causing ALL the raucous? Anybody who doesn't buy your thinking is gullible? LOL AND THEN SOME!!! MOCKY: Even YOU don't buy the bull you're slinging!! Yeah, The DNC is to blame. Everybody is to blame except CONSE 'PUBS!! Be thou O so holy, Conse 'Pub.— Talvenada
- Still - just wondering. It's been 5 hours and I haven't seen Obama sign the second fix it bill. You know the one that you said he would sign 5 minutes after the first health care bill. Did you have your facts wrong or were you intentional being misleading.— Mike Welbourn
- MOCKY: Tea parties being racists? It's real simple if you're white and against health care, you're a baby killer, while everybody else is wrong because they are not white and/or not straight. You can count on one hand the number of non-white and non-straight people in the millions of right-thinking Americans.— Talvenada
- I don't know Talvenada, sure sounds like a contrived incident to me. But hey, I was not there.— Alvenada
- Bob White, Non White, 100 Gay People, look over there it's a conse pub church steeple.— Alvenada
- MOCKY: Meant to say for Health Care, you're a baby killer.— Talvenada
- Talvenada: I just looked at the video. The only thing I can hear is people chanting " kill the bill " . This appears to be another bull**sh*t story from the Democrats in their incessant attempts to characterize people who do not agree with them as racists.— Alvenada
- MOCKY: It's 'Pub and not Pub. Pub is slang for Publican: the licensee of a public house. 'Pub is short for Repub, and it features an apostrophe, like 'bout for about, to replace a missing letter or letters at the beginning, middle or end of a word. Some words have 2 or 3 apostrophes to replace missing letters. Gov'm't for government.— Talvenada
- Alvenada, it's probably foolish for me to jump in here, as the hysteria here has been a bit over the top. But for what it's worth, Rep. Lewis is from Georgia, so the Atlanta stations ran a story this morning about this incident. Lewis commented on it. You can disbelieve if you want, but I think it happened.— NigeltheMastiff
Cited by the Columbia Journalism Review as one of the nation's top political reporters, and lauded by the ABC News political website as "one of the finest political journalists of his generation," Dick Polman is a national political columnist at the Philadelphia Inquirer. He is on the full-time faculty at the University of Pennsylvania, as "writer in residence." Dick has been a frequent guest on C-Span, MSNBC, CNN, NPR and the BBC. He covered the 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 presidential campaigns.
ARCHIVES
All commentaries posted before April 18, 2008, can be accessed at www.dickpolman.blogspot.com.
- American Spectator
- David Limbaugh
- Free Republic
- Glenn Reynolds
- Hugh Hewitt
- Human Events
- John Hawkins
- Matt Lewis
- Michelle Malkin
- National Review
- Opinion Journal
- Power Line
- Red State
- The Brody File
- The Daily Caller
- Town Hall
- Weekly Standard
- Center for American Progress
- Crooks and Liars
- Daily Kos
- David Corn
- Huffington Post
- Media Matters
- Mojoblog (Mother Jones)
- Open Left
- Political Animal
- Salon's War Room
- Talking Points Memo
- Tapped
- The Democratic Strategist
- The Grey Matter
- Unclaimed Territory
- Andrew Sullivan
- Attytood
- Chi Tribune's The Swamp
- CJR's Campaign Desk
- CNN's Political Ticker
- CQ Politics
- FactCheck.org
- Gail Collins
- Howard Kurtz
- Mickey Kaus
- NBC's First Read
- Obit
- Political Wire
- Politico
- Politics Daily
- Pollster.com
- Real Clear Politics
- The Atlantic Wire
- The Fix
- The Moderate Voice
- The Plank
- USA Today On Politics
- Wonkette
