A thaw in the forecast
Obama takes aim at a Cold War remnant
A thaw in the forecast
Dick Polman, Inquirer National Political Columnist
Another day, another policy overhaul. President Obama said goodbye to the status quo yet again yesterday, flexing his executive authority to soften our traditionally hardline attitude toward communist Cuba. For the first time in decades (indeed, in the biggest policy shift since the ice age of the Cold War), Cuban-Americans can now visit the island as often as they want, and they can send money to their loved ones in whatever amounts they desire.
If you haven't been tracking our Cuba policy over the years - actually, there hasn't been much to follow, since the policy has been largely frozen since Fidel seized power 50 years ago - the Obama decrees on travel and money may not seem like such a big deal. But even these moves would have been unthinkable not that long ago; previous presidents didn't dare try to thaw any aspect of our Cold War stance, lest they suffer domestic political damage, particularly in the electorally pivotal state of Florida, where the populous Cuban-American community successfully punished any presidential candidate perceived to be a commie coddler.
But Obama's announcement is symptomatic of a fundamental shift in the Latino political calculus. The older Cuban-Americans in Miami, traditionally Republican, are still a force in the electorate - but not to the extent that they once were. They are joined now, on election day, by a growing number of younger Cuban ethnics who don't feel compelled to cast their ballots on the basis of the Fidel factor. For today's thirty-something Cuban-American, the events of 1959 are a distant, second-hand memory; they are far more likely than their elders to vote on the basis of the same issues that animate all Americans.
Moreover, there is apparently growing sentiment among Cuban-Americans for the kinds of policies that Obama announced yesterday. In 2007, a Florida academic poll discovered, for the first time in the survey's 18 years of queries, that a majority of the Miami Cubans favored an easing of the travel and money restrictions. (George W. Bush had actually toughened the travel restrictions in an '04 decree.) More than 60 percent favored a liberalized travel and money policy.
And not only is the Cuban-American community more ideologically diverse and apparently more tolerant these days, it is also less politically dominant within Florida's Latino electorate. In recent years, Latinos of Puerto Rican origin and Latinos of Central and South American origin have put down roots in great numbers, becoming citizens and putting their names on the voter rolls. (In 2008, Obama political operatives, recognizing in particular that Puerto Rican ethnics tend to vote Democratic, greatly aided this process by conducting voter registration campaigns.)
The results of these political shifts were evident last November. Obama won Florida by three percentage points overall - with considerable assistance from the state's Latinos, who favored him by a whopping 15 points. (Contrast that with 2004, when John Kerry lost the Florida Latinos by 12 points.) Obama didn't win the Cuban-American share of that electorate - he drew roughly 35 percent, far better than Kerry's '04 share - but Obama's massive statewide margin among Latinos is proof that the Cuban-American community no longer has the clout of yesteryear.
So with his domestic political flank covered, Obama can focus on the international politics. For instance, there are a number of left-wing Latin American governments that soured on Bush because of his tightened hardline stance toward Cuba; those governments have been courting China and Russia (and vice versa) on issues of trade and investment, and have been engaging in considerable anti-American rhetoric. Obama, by signaling the first step in a possibly extensive thaw in our Cuban policy, could potentially buoy our battered image in Latin America.
The big question, in the longer run, is whether Obama will indeed urge an extensive thaw and promote a normalization of relations. This would require shelving our decades-old trade embargo with Cuba - generally viewed as one of the untouchable third rails in American politics. (When Obama first ran for the Senate, he favored ending the embargo; as a presidential candidate, he did not.) The embargo clearly hasn't worked as intended; five decades ago, it was designed to economically isolate Fidel and precipitate his downfall. But there seems to be little appetite, within Obamaworld, to take this step in the foreseeable future, at least judging by how rarely the subject is broached.
But it's clear that the administration ideally intends to nudge us ever further away from the status quo. Yesterday, a National Security Council aide told the press that "U.S. policy toward Cuba is not frozen in time," and that the travel/money decree was "the place to start."
Obama apparently prefers to erase this final remnant of the Cold War in an incremental fashion - but, arguably, he need not be so cautious. A CNN poll reported last week that 71 percent of American favor the reestablishing of diplomatic relations with Cuba. A warm wind is at his back. The Obama long-range forecast is for a more extensive thaw.
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An observation about the pirate saga:
It's another symptom of our national parochialism that the Somali pirate epidemic in the Indian Ocean - which has been raging for several years, at great cost to international shipping and trade - never got much play in the American press until now. But we all know the reason, although many of us are loath to admit it: An international crisis doesn't really exist until an American is directly endangered.
Even though Captain Phillips is now safe, and the yellow ribbons have been untied, perhaps there is still interest in the broader story. If so, I recommend reading this. It was published in, of all places, GQ magazine - and written by the East Africa bureau chief of The New York Times. If newspapers die, this kind of piece will likely disappear.
CD75 "The S&P 500 was down over 2% today, a sign that Obama is doing a really bad job." What does this sign mean then? "Mission Accomplished"?— Freerojo- Comrade Obama wishes to unite with his fellow comrades in Cuba. Of course Comrade Polman is all for this! I see that Comrade Liberal and Comrade Pagoda are also for this. Great! We Communists will not rest to all capitalism is replaced with a workers utpoia!— Comrade Noodlehead
- Comrade Liberal: You have been to Cuba? I do remember you at the Communist Party meeting in 1975 in Stalingrad. I have been to Cuba to.— Comrade Noodlehead
- I can't wait to get some cuban cigars. Thanks President Obama!— chasing history
Comment removed.- Ark-But there is the fundamental problem with Democrats in general. They are only guided by polls and not principle. They merely change their positions to fit the whims of the latest focus group. They say one thing to a group of San francisco Liberals and quite another to gun toting Pennsylvanians.
- NEPhilly: the WSJ opinion piece only mentioned one unnamed bank, and that was under Bush. Phrosty's link also mentioned nine banks, but all under Bush. I'm not sure how this is all one giant plan by Obama.— still_independent
- How stupid of the GoPers - not acknowledging the obvious about how many messes our president inherited from the miserable presidency of George W. Bush. We are slowly getting out of the Bush maliase - and we will be fine - AMERICA is resiliant.— ModerateMarge
- still_independent: I have no idea. I think it's neocon logic. If Obama continues Bush's failed policy (Gitmo, surveillance, TARP), then it's ALL that hypocrite Obama's fault as Bush's heart was in the right place but President B HUSSEIN Obama is a Socialist fraud born in Kenya planted by muslims to overthrow our way of life.... or something to that effect. (Oh, and GWB is owed an apology for all the bashing left wing loons did for GWB's support of torture, spying, nationalizing banks, bankrupting the nation, etc., etc.) Haven't you been paying attention?— Phrossty
- I'd love to comment, but am currently in hiding. Since I have been associating with veterans returned home from Iraq and Afghanistan, people who are pro-life, belong to the NRA, want our immigration laws enforced and believe in states rights over federal control (as in the federal government forcing states to take stimulus money), I am, according to the Department of Homeland Security report, am right wing extremist. So we cannot use the term "Islamic Fascism", terrorist acts are "man made disasters", and the war on terror is now "overseas contingency operation". But gee, those returning vets, pro-lifers, anti-illegal immigration, states rights groups are all "right wing extremists". Guess big brothers is here after all.— tom - wilmington, de
- Relations with Cuba should be normalized - actually, this should have been done long ago. All the embargo has done is strengthen Castro's position for half a century. As the Grim Reaper will soon be paying Fidel and his brother a visit, now would be an opportune time to reverse this anomalous 50-year old grudge.— JC Denton
- still, the stimulus plan passing changed the TARP law, that is how! The stimulus was passed under Pres. Obama as an emergency and was barely read. Now we find out that the stimulus law changed the TARP law! I did not know that, did you? Banks that took the TARP $$$ had the rules changed retroactively by the stimulus law! Now these banks try to give it back to avoid the changes and the govt. gives them a hard time. Why, because the govt. wants to keep control of these banks is my guess and I have a problem with that! If these companies want to give the $$$ back they should be able to no retroactive strings attached. What do you think?— NEPhilly
- I think you still haven't come up with a bank that was "forced" to take TARP funds under the Obama administration— still_independent
- still_independent: He hasn't. He won't. It's not NEPhilly's point (or the truth). I think his point is that CURRENTLY (under Obama) the banks that were forced (by GWB & Dem Paulson) to take TARP are not being allowed to repay. Thus, fanning the flames of Socialism takeover frenzy.— Phrossty
- No one was forced to take money under Obama (just geithner, paulson and bernanke), just the ones that did take the $$$ (and some did so just to give cover to those that needed it) had the rules changed on them retroactivley (by the stimulus bill of all things, just goes to show how much cr@p was in that thing) and when they try to give it back this administration gives them a hard time! If you are okay with that, just say it! IMHO, I think it wrong:)— NEPhilly
Cited by the Columbia Journalism Review as one of the nation's top political reporters, and lauded by the ABC News political website as "one of the finest political journalists of his generation," Dick Polman is a national political columnist at the Philadelphia Inquirer. He is on the full-time faculty at the University of Pennsylvania, as "writer in residence." Dick has been a frequent guest on C-Span, MSNBC, CNN, NPR and the BBC. He covered the 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 presidential campaigns.
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