A reality check for giddy Obama fans

Democrats no doubt are tempted to feel giddy about the impending election, given the fact that each day seems better than last. Consider what's happened since the weekend, for instance. In the wake of a federal trial verdict, the Republicans are now saddled with a convicted felon on the Senate ballot in Alaska; in Pennsylvania, various GOP dirty trickster apparatchiks are trying to disclaim any responsibility for an email message to Jewish voters that warned of a second Holocaust if Barack Obama is elected; in red-state Montana, of all places, the presidential race is so tight that the Republican National Committee has decided to run ads for John McCain; and as a symptom of the deteriorating mood in the GOP campaign, one McCain aide has anonymously told Politico that Sarah Palin is a "whack job," and a McCain aide has trashed her as a "diva," telling CNN: "She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us...Divas trust only unto themselves, as they see themselves as the beginning and end of all wisdom."

Yes, at this point, many Democrats are probably daring to entertain the thought that their candidate is home free - barring, of course, any eleventh-hour disaster, such as YouTube footage of Obama conspiring with Bill Ayres and ACORN to place a dirty bomb on the doorstep of Joe the Plumber.

But, as a hedge against overconfidence, I would suggest that Democrats call up the C-Span video library, and watch the proceedings of an Ohio focus group, conducted several days ago by pollster Peter Hart. The 12 folks in attendance were all undecided voters, all hailing from Lake County, a bellwether white working-class county in one of the most crucial battleground states. Granted, this was not a scientific sampling; indeed, as Hart wrote later in a memo, these people represent "a very, very small slice of the total Ohio electorate." Nevertheless, Hart observed, ""the purpose is not to count noses, but to hear what is going on in their heads."

And what's happening in their heads should at least give Democrats temporary pause.

On paper, Ohio should be a cinch Democratic pickup, if only because the state economy is reeling after eight years of Republican White House rule, yet the polls suggest that McCain might win it anyway (as he surely needs to do, since no Republican has won the presidency without Ohio since the 19th century). As evidenced by the mood in Hart's conference room, this is partly because Obama is still viewed with suspicion by many of the voters who have yet to commit. His persona leaves them cold. And his "change" message doesn't necessarily click with those who are cynical about politicians, particularly politicians who promise a better tomorrow.

Consider, for instance, Cookie Lo Schiavo, who works as a nanny. She has voted Democratic for 40 years, she detests with Iraq war ("We should never have been in there"), and her fear about McCain is that "he's going to drop dead and Sarah Palin will take over." Yet she will not vote for Obama next week.

Cookie offered a variety of explanations: "Something here (pointing to her heart) makes me frightened of voting for Obama...We have a Congress that's Democratic, so if we bring that Republican in, that has a defense background, a dedicated person...I just don't have the confidence in (Obama)...I know that as a person he always was for the people growing up, and, sometimes, I look at it as an act, or I see my mom - I don't know, it just seems like an act to me." (Hart wrote later: "It seems that race is a component of her reluctance to support him." I didn't detect this, but Hart is more schooled in the nuances than I.)

Cookie's answer was all over the lot - I'm not sure what her "mom" reference was all about - but her "act" theme was picked up by others in the room. Some said that Obama comes across as too "polished." Mary Lazar, a retired teacher, said: "He's too 'perfect.' Everything seems like it's rehearsed...It's like somebody already posed the question to him and said, 'This is the way you need to answer it to the American public, so that they'll buy into what you're selling.' It's like an advertising firm came along and gave him parameters and said, 'This is what you have to stay in to be elected.'"

When Hart asked his participants to describe how they would feel if Obama was elected next week, only a few people talked brightly about "change" and "a new era." The majority said they would be "worried," "nervous," "uncertain" or "frightened." And even one of the stronger Obama leaners - Brandie Adams, a medical biller, - has no expectations that an Obama presidency would somehow usher in an era of nirvana: "There are so many things that have to be addressed, and decisions that have to be made that will be hard for everybody."

Eight of these 12 undecided voters backed George W. Bush four years ago, when the president narrowly won Ohio (and thereby clinched his re-election bid). After Hart's prodding, it appeared that seven of the 12 will support McCain. All told, Hart later concluded in his memo, "Listening to these voters, Ohio may be even close than one might suspect...Looking at the fundamentals, Ohio should be clearly blue, but (its) outcome remains a question mark."

Fortunately for Obama, he has numerous paths to the magic 270 electoral votes, even without Ohio. But, if the suspicions on display in this focus group are any indication, as president he would have very little political margin for error.