President Obama's State of the Union speech was studded with newsy passages - shout-outs for nuclear power (when was the last time a Democrat did that?) and capital-gains tax cuts (shades of George H.W. Bush) and partial domestic spending freezes (we hear you, Massachusetts) and community college revitalization (important to the children of modest-income families) and open military service for gay people (one sentence, but finally)...plus a verbal smackdown of the corporate-friendly judicial activists swaddled in their robes just a few feet away.
Nevertheless, what struck me most were these numbers: 7127 and 516.
His speech ran for 7127 words. Yet the issue that has dominated policy and political discussions over the past year (seemingly to the exclusion of almost everything else), the issue on which Obama has hoped to base his legacy, was mentioned in a mere 516 words. It came up roughly at the midpoint of the speech, and quickly vanished.
Basically, Obama treated health care reform as if it was a fragment of day-old lettuce in an overstuffed deli club sandwich.
Which tells us plenty about how well he fared during his first year in office. He briefly attempted last night to diagnose what has gone wrong: "This is a complex issue, and the longer it was debated, the more skeptical people became. I take my share of the blame for not explaining it more clearly to the American people. And I know that with all the lobbying and horse trading, this process left most Americans wondering what's in it for them."
There's a lot to unpack in those three sentences. He's right that he should have explained it more clearly. As I've previously detailed in this space, he has sometimes rolled out mind-numbing 10-minute responses to the press corp's health care questions. In this culture, you need to communicate a "complex issue" in digestible soundbites. Republicans are brilliant at that, Democrats demonstrably less so. Obama has appeared to assume that if he talks like a policy professor, he can sway the people. Not.
He also appeared to lament "all the lobbying and horse trading," and how bad that looked. Here's some breaking news that might come as a shock to the ahistorical multitudes: Lobbying and horse trading and secret backroom dealmaking have been prominent features of the legislative process since politicians rode to Washington in stagecoaches. George W. Bush and the ruling GOP perpetuated these traditions all the time (on the bloated drug prescription bill, on the various earmark-stuffed budgets), and it's a testament to the current Republicans' talking-point skills that they have persuaded so many credulous people that these practices have somehow been invented in the here and now by Obama and the Democrats.
Still, Obama's original error was to raise expectations, by suggesting during his campaign that he would never engage in, or condone, such practices. Voters should never take such suggestions seriously. That dreamy stuff doesn't mean squat when it's time to grind the sausage. That's not how power works. Back in the mid-'60s, Lyndon Johnson achieved great things with his Great Society domestic agenda in part because he worked the backrooms and cajoled reluctant lawmakers by giving them pork for the folks back home - either that, or he threatened them by vowing not to give them pork.
Anyway, Obama last night did his quick diagnosis of what went wrong for health reform in 2009, before pivoting to its prospects in '10. This seemed like an important moment in the speech. Hundreds of Democrats have already taken difficult votes on the signature issue of our time; reform seemed poised for final passage until Massachusetts pulled the lever for the new It Guy. If reform goes down in '10, Obama and the Democrats can kiss goodbye to the liberal voters, because those folks will sit out the November midterm elections en masse, having been rightly convinced that there's no point in voting for a hapless crew that can't deliver.
So, what would Obama say next in the speech? Would he show leadership, and point a way forward?
"I will not walk away (from this issue), and neither should the people in this chamber."
OK, that was a start...he wants to persevere...
"As temperatures cool, I want everyone to take another look at the plan we've proposed....But if anyone from either party has a better approach that will bring down premiums, bring down the deficit, cover the uninsured, strengthen Medicare for seniors and stop insurance company abuses, let me know. Here's what I ask of Congress, though: Do not walk away from reform. Not now. Not when we are so close. Let us find a way to come together and finish the job for the American people."
The flatulent sound I hear is air leaking slowly out of a balloon. Consider me underwhelmed. The president wants everyone "to take another look." He says that if anyone has some new ideas, let him know. He says that everyone should "find a way to come together and finish the job," without so much as offering a clue about what way he deems to be best. Perhaps have the House pass the Senate bill and live with the Senate provisions? Or have the House pass the Senate bill and make changes in a new bill that can pass the Senate via a parliamentary procedure requiring only 51 votes? Does he want to stick with the comprehensive approach, or would he push hard for passage in bits and pieces? He never said, never even hinted. Then he was off the subject entirely, having segued into a rap about deficit reduction.
Obama has every reason to curse the fates. If Ted Kennedy hadn't died, the current impasse would not be happening, and the obstructionist Senate Republicans would not have won by a score of 41 to 59. But it was Ted's brother who said, during the final year of his presidency in '63, "Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or the present are certain to miss the future." Politically, and certainly morally, Obama can ill afford to bury health care reform in 516 words. It's his job now to show leadership and chart the way forward, into the future.
I'm hoping the reason he didn't get into specifics on health care reform is because he now understands that he needs to make it happen in the backroom arm wrestling matches, not in high-flown rhetoric...I guess we will find out if he knows how to knock heads real soon. Yersinia Pestis
"But if anyone from either party has a better approach.......let me know." - Obama knows, as everyone else on Capital Hill does, the ideas put forth by Republicans to bring healthcare reform by opening the industry up to more competition and stopping frivolous lawsuits. But Obama doesn't like this because it would reduce the control that government has over the insurance industry and it would anger lawyers, one of his biggest group od donors. Phillysub- He missed it again. Bad ideas are Obama's problem, not bad communication. It's not that the people fail to understand a "complex issue", it's that the people understood the issue despite the BS they were being fed by the administration, and soundly rejected it. jmc
All talk. The man keeps proving he is woefully immature. Scolding your opponents will never earn respect or cooperation. Creating scapegoats and boogey men to cover up your ills is a tired old totalitarian trick. CD75
"Still, Obama's error was to raise expectations, by suggesting during his campaign that he would never engage in, or condone, such practices." - - That is a fancy way of saying that Obama is a liar. CD75
I agree with Dick on this statement, which is right on point: "In this culture, you need to communicate a "complex issue" in digestible soundbites. Republicans are brilliant at that, Democrats demonstrably less so. Obama has appeared to assume that if he talks like a policy professor, he can sway the people. Not." CD75- We already know that we have cannot fund our obligation to social security and medicare then it defies logic that the government could run our healthcare. The insanity of all this is mind numbing. With the 13 trillion in debt the only conversation that should be taking place is a complete phase out of these programs, elimination of most of our Federal Departments, sale of the White HOuse and all national parks and monuuments. We are bankrupt! We can't all work for the government and have all of our needs taken care of by nanny Obama. It is unsustainable. Stop confiscating our pay checks and we'll all be able to buy our own private insurance and pay for our own retirement. We will still need cops, teachers,and fireman. What we don't need is a social security administration, a turnpike commision, a commerce department, and homeland security department,jet rides to copenhagen, state dinners etc.
swedesboromike: was the "blame Bush" part out of bounds or no? "The problems we inherited were far worse than most inside and out of government had expected; the recession was deeper than most inside and out of government had predicted. Curing those problems has taken more time and a higher toll than any of us wanted. Unemployment is far too high. Projected Federal spending-- if government refuses to tighten its own belt-- will also be far too high and could weaken and shorten the economic recovery now underway." .... was this unseemly? still_independent- Still Independent- It has grown most tiresome. I hope Obama is not pinning his election chances on blaming Bush. Let me get this straight. Liberal politicians encourage lenders to loan to anyone and the lenders find clever ways to repackage the loans into investment portfolios that are sold all over the world and this is George Bush's fault? Is this what you are saying? What has Obama done to stop any of this? And who was the President the signed the repeal of Glass Steagul? Not to mention that it was Bush who enacted a Tarp bailout that stabilized the whole problem and saved Obama a real mess. Now the money is being paid back with interest and the Obama admin. won't use it to lower the deficit. And much of the mess that was created is of Obama's own making. His policies are causing business to be real cautios in hiring and reinvesting in their business. It was Obmama that enacted this stimulus program that was nothing more than payoffs to special interest groups. Obama is right that there is a mess! But it is of his own making.
The main unseemly part of the speech was when he called out the Supreme Court and the Democrats cheered. Very unpresidential. He sounded like a spoiled brat who was told he could not go out and play until his homework was completed, especially since he also mischaracterized the court's decision. To be honest, had he not continued to blame Bush, it would have been a shock. True, he lied about the deficit he inherited, completely forgetting his stimulus spending, omnibus spending bill he signed, additional TARP money he spent, and money given to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (which is off budget and not part of the deficit). He also again stuck to the 2 million jobs that the stimulus created/saved, and on track for the additional 1.5 million jobs in 2010. That is a number that cannot be verified, so he can make it anything he wants. Imagine if Bush had tried this, the media would be all over it's fraudulent nature. tom - wilmington, de
The HCR bill contains exactly those "Republican" ideas; the public exchanges it founds would create greater competition "acrross state lines"; and (I believe I've heard on radio) there is a proposal around a cap on payouts for malpractice, designed to lower malpractice premiums, and in turn the cost of healthcare. This bill is very similar to the reform already in place in MA, voted for by the new man-crush of conservatives, Senator Handsome Pantless from Taxachussets, and favored by 68% of MA residents. Republicans are against this bill just to be against it. Apparently Scott Brown will vote for his state to have universal coverage, but to the country he says, "I got mine; you're own your own." Which is a sound synopsis of conservatism, is it not? CutterMcCool
An early factcheck on the speech, from the AP is at http://apnews.myway.com/article/20100128/D9DGKDT00.html tom - wilmington, de
The healthcare bill in MA as it stands now is different than what was originally passed. It has not controlled costs, it has not reduced premiums, and it has not led to universal coverage. It has led to people enrolling in a health insurance plan just prior to treatment, then dropping it afterwards. As to the current bills, they create a national health plan, with the feds dictating what is and is not to be covered. That is different than allowing purchase across state lines. It also allows states to alter malpractice laws, but if they do so too stringently, they get penalized. That is not reform. tom - wilmington, de
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Someone really needs to tell me what it wrong with universal health care? What is wrong with going to the hospital, showing ID, and getting treatment without worrying if it will be covered by your insurance? People that have soured (not those that were against it from the beginning) on it, have done mainly because they dont want a watered down version of it; they just want what every other developed nation on this Earth gives all of its people -- healthcare that is worry free and cost effective. How can a person get up and say that our healthcare is #1 in the world when we rank so low in life expectancy, infant mortality, other measurable statistics? No, sorry, I want something better than we currently have. Master Dreamz
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