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Friday, June 20, 2008

 

It's worth remembering that presidential polls conducted far in advance of the November election are generally meaningless. Two examples should suffice. In the summer of 1988, Michael Dukakis held a 17-point lead over Vice President George H. W. Bush; in the late spring of 1992, Bill Clinton was running third in the polls...and the guy at the top of the heap was the flavor of the season, Ross Perot.

But the fair-and-balanced pollsters at Fox News always manage to tweak my interest, regardless of the season. They have a gift for crafting ideological-loaded questions in a manner that is intended to provide them with the answers that they seek. Their current priority, it would appear, is to ask people whether they might be inclined to believe that Barack Obama is an unAmerican weirdo.

Yet sometimes even their most strenuous efforts come to naught. Sometimes the respondents just don’t seem to take the hint. Consider these examples from their latest national survey, which was released on Thursday.

They asked, "Recently, there’s been some discussion about presidential candidates wearing or not wearing American flag lapel pins. Do you care whether a candidate is wearing an American flag lapel pin or not?"

This phony issue has been aimed at Obama all along; it was the issue most prominently cited in the Fox poll. But the swing-voting independents – who are most likely to decide the November race - refused to play along. Sixty-five percent said no, they don’t care about whether a candidate flies the flag on his clothes.

So Fox tried again, this time by piling on the ammo. The next question: “If a candidate for president wore an American flag lapel pin in the past, and then announced that he or she would no longer wear a flag pin, would that make you have some doubts about the person’s patriotism or not?”

Foiled again! Fifty-six percent of the independents still said no.

A few questions later they tried again: "How much do you think Barack Obama loves America?" (Clever wording, since it plants the insinuation that perhaps he doesn’t love America – sowing doubt among the voters, as it were.)

Foiled again! Sixty-eight percent of the independents said that Obama loves America, either "a great deal" (a healthy plurality chose that option), or "somewhat." Only nine percent said that Obama does not feel the love at all.

And considering that Fox’s respondents seem to like Obama and John McCain equally - 58 percent view both men favorably, 32 percent view both unfavorably...foiled again! – it’s clear that the Fox pollsters will have to find a way to ratchet up the questioning in order to get the right answers. Later this summer, maybe something like this will do the trick:

"If Barack Hussein Obama and his Baby Mama were to exchange terrorist fist jabs with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on the Fourth of July, and then march that day as a threesome in a black liberation theology parade with Jeremiah Wright, and then arrange to have an ACLU lawyer represent Osama bin Laden at a routine appearance in traffic court, how confident would you feel that Obama, as commander-in-chief, would stand up during the Pledge of Allegiance, or not?"

-------

But let us conclude this week with a song, touchingly rendered. Granted, there is a Tim Russert connection. But show a little faith, there’s magic in the night.

Posted by Dick Polman @ 11:45 AM  Permalink | 11 comments
Comments   
Posted 12:59 PM, 06/20/2008
James TL
Considering the fact that many people tell pollsters that they will vote for a man of color and then don't when they get to the voting booth it will be difficult to believe polls that say that Obama is leading.
Posted 01:17 PM, 06/20/2008
SteveMG
I wonder if it's possible to leave Fox and work for a real news network? Can they wash the stink off?
Comment removed.
Posted 04:14 PM, 06/20/2008
fbudak
John McCain, the great American hero, DOES NOT WEAR A FLAG PIN !!! WHAT'S UP WITH THAT ?
Posted 04:48 PM, 06/20/2008
mike l
John Sidney McCain doesn't wear a flag pin? No wonder he can't get republican support. He must have fallen for commine indoctrination during his years in Hanoi when he was supposedly a POW, right? How come Fox doesn't investigate that? Or any other phony issues?
Posted 05:38 PM, 06/20/2008
p-diddy
How dare you suggest that John McCain doesn't wear a flag pin. He sticks the pin into his skin as a reminder of all the fallen heroes who sacrificed for this great nation.
Posted 01:14 PM, 06/21/2008
yobill626
I wonder when Fox will take a poll asking people if they believe Fox gives them real news. I will also bet the ranch that Fox will be making all kinds of fun at the "Obama seal" rolled out yesterday. (Note to Obama campaign: That is one DUMB idea!).
Posted 02:32 PM, 06/21/2008
Djoko Pritza
Yeah, re the seal, you gotta ask, isn't someone around Obama pointing out the inherent problem with such stuff -- like announcing Patti Solis Doyle as veep spokesman before a veep is named, riling the Hillary folk because of Doyle's previous connection? Obama's comment to the fund-raising group that the GOP will smear him by saying, "Oh, and did I mention he was black?" Let's be smart, people! (Unless the plan is to draw attention from a major issue -- public financing -- to a bogus issue -- the seal. Nah ...)
Posted 03:09 PM, 06/21/2008
yobill626
I like the PSD selection. Its becoming more obvious to me that the Clinton organization (campaign & Presidency) was chaotic behind the scenes because of the Clintons', not everybody else. Doyle's hire means that the team will come first, & everyone will have to become part of that team --- even the VP (historically, this hasn't been the case). Hopefully, it should also cut down on turf battles.
Posted 03:48 PM, 06/22/2008
Djoko Pritza
Hey, Doyle's hiring is great. The timing's not so good. Hire her, get yourself a veep, then announce her job. As they say, timing's everything.
Posted 09:18 AM, 06/23/2008
jmc
Dick: The problem is that most news organizations on the left and right look at polling data as some sort of divine revelation that in itself is news. Polls tend to be used in lieu of facts to bolster an argument. Will Bunch over at Attytood does this all the time, and I've called him on it. Polls are virtually meaningless and should not be used as crutch so news organizations don't have to do their jobs.
11 comments
About Dick Polman

Cited by the Columbia Journalism Review as one of the nation's top political reporters, and lauded by the ABC News political website as "one of the finest political journalists of his generation," Dick Polman is a national political columnist at the Philadelphia Inquirer. He is on the full-time faculty at the University of Pennsylvania, as "writer in residence." Dick has been a frequent guest on C-Span, MSNBC, CNN, NPR and the BBC. He covered the 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 presidential campaigns.

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