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Wednesday, May 21, 2008

 

Ever so slowly, the Democratic rivals are dialing it down. When Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton addressed their respective supporters last night, each did so with nary an ill word for the other side. One could sense that the Kumbaya phase is finally at hand, that the candidates are poised to observe the rituals of reconciliation.

This was evident not just because of what they said, but because of what they didn't say. Obama, while declaring that he has now clinched a majority of all pledged delegates nationwide (a goal that was attained last night even while losing in Kentucky), he did not seek to rub the news in Clinton's face by annointing himself as the nominee; rather, he said only that his milestone puts him "within reach" of the nomination. He didn't assail Clinton, directly or otherwise, as a symbol of the "old politics"; on the contrary, he seemed to be nominating her for political sainthood ("one of the most formidable candidates to ever seek the office...her courage, her commitment, her perseverance"), as well as for the feminist hall of fame (she has "shattered barriers" for our daughters).

Clinton didn't flatter Obama in similar fashion, or mention him much at all. But at least she didn't intimate, as she has repeatedly in the past, that he's a naif who lacks the tools to be commander in chief. She offered a few rote remarks about her own readiness to lead on Day One, but she quickly pivoted to the theme of being a good Democrat, regardless of the primary season results ("I'll work as hard as I can to elect a Democratic president this fall"), and the need for all Democratic voters to unify ("For the sake of our country, the Democrats must take back the White House...We will come together as a party"). She knew that her big Kentucky win would not dominate the media coverage, that it would be trumped by Obama's pledged-delegate clinching, that it would be checked and balanced by Obama's solid Oregon win, and therefore it would look absurd to talk of a turning tide.

Each had an interest last night in observing the reconciliation rituals. Obama didn't want to convey any sense of triumphalism about his delegate milestone (which would have looked particularly tacky, given his Kentucky shellacking), because he badly desires to draw her supporters to his side, not tick them off. And he knows he will need Clinton's help during the late-spring unification process.

As for Clinton, at one point she did give voice to a few preposterous delusions, such as her claim that "we're winning the popular vote (nationwide)...More people have voted for me than anyone who has ever run for the Democratic nomination." There are only three things wrong with that empty boast: (a) she's counting Michigan, where Obama's name didn't even appear on the ballot, (b) she's counting Florida, where the primary was held early in defiance of party rules, thereby rendering it officially meaningless, (c) she's omitting Obama victories in three caucus states, including Iowa, that never released popular vote totals. No wonder delegates are used as the decisive metric for victory.

But she didn't spend much time trying to shift the goalposts; her larger message was that she and Obama "do see eye to eye when it comes to uniting our party." She didn't want to project the image of a sore loser bent on further maligning the near-presumptive nominee and thereby wrecking the party's November prospects. Short of winning the nomination, her first priority is to be seen as a team player who puts the party's interests ahead of her own. Better to aid Obama in the imminent showdown with John McCain than to sulk on the sidelines and risk being blamed for a defeat.

And once Obama finished heaping praise on Hillary Clinton, he focused squarely on McCain, seeking to frame the impending campaign much the way that Bill Clinton defined his winning race in 1992 against incumbent George H. W. Bush - as a contest between change and status quo, as new ideas versus old ideas, as future versus the past. He noted that McCain "arrived in Washington nearly three decades ago," somehow making it sound as if the GOP nominee had first learned to walk during the Paleolithic Age. He charged that McCain was a Bush clone on taxes, health care, and Iraq, whereas he claims to represent bread-and-butter change for working Americans who are worried about getting sick, making ends meet, and losing their houses.

It was a Democratic general-election speech, presumably one that Clinton would be comfortable echoing, and it seemed aimed at several audiences - unpledged superdelegates (obviously), swing-voting independents who are enamored of McCain, and the working-class Democrats who remain strongly resistant to Obama's siren call. The Kentucky exit poll provides fresh evidence of the latter, and the Obama people will clearly need to address that weakness going forward.

They can perhaps take some comfort in the fact that, according to the data geeks at the American National Election Survey (based at the University of Michigan), no more than 10 percent of self-identified Democrats have ultimately defected to the GOP candidate in any presidential election since 1992. They also can perhaps take some comfort in the latest Gallup tracking survey, which reports that a number of key Clinton constituencies are starting to shift to Obama.

But rest assured that they will want to have Clinton herself working those voters; she has, after all, earned the right to be the chief ambassador to roughly 48 percent of the Democratic populace. We'll see what verbal effusions Obama sends her way two weeks hence, after the final primary votes are tallied, in the next phase of the reconciliation rituals. Presumably he won't have to promise to put her face on a coin.

-------

I just noticed this announcement, headlined "Correction" on the bottom of today's New York Times editorial page:

"In his column on Monday, Bill Kristol said he could not find a recent primary in which the candidate who would go on to win the nomination lost by as big a margin as Barack Obama lost (41 points) in West Virginia. Mitt Romney won the essentially uncontested Utah primary on Feb. 5 with about 90 percent of the vote.

"Also, the California Supreme Court is based in San Francisco, not the state capital, Sacramento."

This means that the Times has now been forced to run four corrections on columnist Kristol's work, in the span of a mere six months since his debut. (In Kristol's lust on Monday to disparage Obama, he also managed not to "find" that GOP nominee John McCain had lost the Arkansas primary to Mike Huckabee by 40 points. But my favorite Kristol gaffe occurred in March, when he placed Obama in church on the occasion of a specific Jeremiah Wright sermon, whereas, in reality, Obama was stumping that very day in Florida.)

As I have previously noted (bottom item, here), this kind of sorry record is inevitable when a newspaper hires a partisan ideologue to do the work that is better left to real journalists. Fact-checking is a fundamental feature of such work, but derelictions will continue to occur as long as The Times persists in entrusting valuable op-ed real estate to a guy who, among other things, has persisted in cheerleading for the Iraq war in defiance of all empirical metrics.

Posted by Dick Polman @ 12:38 AM  Permalink | 22 comments
Comments   
Posted 10:17 AM, 05/21/2008
Djoko Pritza
To take up the issue Wilmington Tom concluded with last night, a short of amateur cynicism about: "Racism in the Democratic party – I thought all racists were in the Republican party." There are, of course, Tom, racists everywhere in the good ole USA, which is why Obama's task is so tough. There are definitely racist democrats. The difference is that the Republican Party itself is not a party African Americans feel drawn to. What I can't understand, Tom, is what kind of person sticks with the Republican Party these days, as you seem to? The Repubs are not your daddy's party any more. It was taken over in the mid-‘90s by the supply-side simpletons who believe tax cuts are the solution to all problems. The Grover Norquist wing is in total control. The Repubs in Congress served no check and balance to the lunacy of Bush and Cheney, to the extent that now they are trying hard to find a way to distance themselves to avoid an election disaster. Too late. So it is a shock to hear you talk about how you'd not mind Clinton for 8 years if we had a GOP Congress! Bill Clinton accomplished more against greater obstacles than Bush by a mile. If he would have been able to control his sexual impulses until he got out of office, we'd have been spared the last ruinous 8 years. And you're a fan of that. Why can't people change in the face of hard evidence? Think for yourself.
Posted 10:26 AM, 05/21/2008
JeffA
I'm sorry, but anyone willing to conjure up new math to claim the popular vote is not courting reconciliation. She's merely hedging her bets while working as hard as she can to win the nomination. If Hillary could pull off the big comeback with Florida and SuperD's, she'd happily dance her way to Denver. I sense Obama focusing on McCain as a ploy to show strength, not as an olive branch. He's trying to convince undeclared SuperD's that the race is over and let's get to the general, while knowing he could conceivably still lose. HRC has won 5 out of the 7 primaries. This has Obama worried so he puts a strong front up.
Posted 10:50 AM, 05/21/2008
psv
Sorry JeffA, there is no ploy on Obama's side in talking up McCain. McCain and the GOP have stopped talking about Clinton altogether and are getting the early leg up on the election race. Obama is the nominee, and Clinton hasn't done anything recently to change that. Obama can't sit quietly and take a shellacking from McCain; he has no reason to expend any further energy on Clinton alone.
Posted 11:03 AM, 05/21/2008
SteveMG
The reason to remain a member of the Republican Party is to vote against some of the radical candidates in the primaries. Leaving the Republican Party in the hands of the zealots will do us all harm in the long run as evidenced by the last eight years. American voters are still very receptive to the smear and fear politics that enabled the radicals to leverage their minority. In fact if more people would actually join the Republican party it would help dilute the hard core radical base. Finally, a viable opposition does serve a valuable role. That is also clear after the last eight years. Even now, the Democratic majorities in the Congress aren't strong enough to stop the President, but they have certainly slowed him.
Posted 01:04 PM, 05/21/2008
tom - wilmington, de
Gee, it is shocking to hear that the Democrat party, the party of Roosevelt, JFK, and Bill Clinton can actually contain racists and sexists. I guess not all Democrats are part of the "enlightened" in this country. As for remaining a registered Republican, I see no reason to change. I vote for the better candidate, not along party lines. I vote conservative, not either Republican or Democrat. Obama is concentrating on McCain to show he is the nominee AND to take away from the fact he lost two of the last three primaries by such whopping margins. I guess the difference between his recent losses and those of McCain as mentioned by Dick is their timing. Both Utah and Arkansas took place on Super Tuesday, when the nominee was still basically undecided. However, Obama has been considered the nominee by most pundits and journalists for the past several weeks, and he is losing by such large margins. It is as if the voters in WV and KY would rather waste their votes on a candidate with no shot at the nomination (according to the author of this blog) than vote for Obama. Does that not bode ill for the party? Doesn't that make Obama a flawed candidate?
Posted 01:04 PM, 05/21/2008
tom - wilmington, de
Gee, it is shocking to hear that the Democrat party, the party of Roosevelt, JFK, and Bill Clinton can actually contain racists and sexists. I guess not all Democrats are part of the "enlightened" in this country. As for remaining a registered Republican, I see no reason to change. I vote for the better candidate, not along party lines. I vote conservative, not either Republican or Democrat. Obama is concentrating on McCain to show he is the nominee AND to take away from the fact he lost two of the last three primaries by such whopping margins. I guess the difference between his recent losses and those of McCain as mentioned by Dick is their timing. Both Utah and Arkansas took place on Super Tuesday, when the nominee was still basically undecided. However, Obama has been considered the nominee by most pundits and journalists for the past several weeks, and he is losing by such large margins. It is as if the voters in WV and KY would rather waste their votes on a candidate with no shot at the nomination (according to the author of this blog) than vote for Obama. Does that not bode ill for the party? Doesn't that make Obama a flawed candidate?
Posted 01:49 PM, 05/21/2008
tom - wilmington, de
I just love the statement that the votes in Florida do not count. I guess they never happened.
Posted 02:00 PM, 05/21/2008
SteveMG
Nobody says it never happened (but you), but what surprises you about the election being decertified? Terry McAuliffe warned Carl Levin in 2004 that if MI moved up its primary, there was no way in heck the delegates would be seated. "Rules are rules" he said.
Posted 03:28 PM, 05/21/2008
yobill626
Don't get me started on Bill Kristol. His writings should be posted in the Comics section --- its amazing how often he is wrong. Heck, if he was a football prognosticaor on ESPN, he'd have been fired years ago.
Posted 03:28 PM, 05/21/2008
yobill626
Don't get me started on Bill Kristol. His writings should be posted in the Comics section --- its amazing how often he is wrong. Heck, if he was a football prognosticaor on ESPN, he'd have been fired years ago.
Posted 03:40 PM, 05/21/2008
tom - wilmington, de
steve, I never mentioned MI, just FLA. And I was referring to the assertion that more people did not vote for Hillary because the Florida votes do not count, ergo they never happened, ergo they do not exist.
Posted 03:46 PM, 05/21/2008
Djoko Pritza
The whole MI-FL thing is a joke. It will be settled in a way that is agreeable to both Obama and Clinton camps, which means it will not be a game changer for Hillary. She demagogues the issue as one of many rationales to keep running so she has a chance to pay off her debt. If she refuses a MI-FL settlement because it doesn't give her what she wants, it will be seen for what it is: using the issue to advance her own interests, not those of the party or the people of Michigan or Florida. The sad fact is that the longer she drags this contest out, the tougher she makes it for Obama to heal the rift in the party and shape a challenge to McCain. Time is crucial. The MI-FL question that needs to be asked is, is she pushing the issue because she needs time to raise more money, because she's more concerned with self interest than with party interest, or because if she weakens Obama enough that he loses (and she would put on a good show of rallying to his side ... after much damage has been done and it could be too late), she can run in 2012. The latter is possible, because she has to realize her last shot will be in four years. In eight years, age will be a problem.
Posted 04:22 PM, 05/21/2008
JeffA
psv - perhaps you're right, or perhaps the action can serve two purposes at once..i don't know. Not so sure McCain is getting a leg up. I've heard comments recently at how McCain keeps getting relegated to page 2 due to the Democratic primary duel.
Posted 04:28 PM, 05/21/2008
JeffA
Tom, Florida's votes don't count simply because it wasn't a level playing field, it wasn't sanctioned. We just don't know how many people did not vote due to the circus surrounding whether their vote would count. And Obama didn't even campaign there. The only way to make it fair is to re-vote. The state and its citizenry could bankroll a 'do-over' but who wants to pay for it? This is old ground. Florida should be ticked at their state officials who moved up the primary date in defiance of all party leaders and the candidates. Perhaps you could start a SaveFlorida fundraising campaign to finance a re-vote.
Posted 07:49 PM, 05/21/2008
SteveMG
Tom - Huh? FL and MI are the same fix: they both violated rules by rescheduling their primaries. The legislatures of both states were fully aware of what they were doing and the consequences but they decided to call the party's bluff. Clinton was in favor of the DQ before she was against it.
About Dick Polman

Cited by the Columbia Journalism Review as one of the nation's top political reporters, and lauded by the ABC News political website as "one of the finest political journalists of his generation," Dick Polman is a national political columnist at the Philadelphia Inquirer. He is on the full-time faculty at the University of Pennsylvania, as "writer in residence." Dick has been a frequent guest on C-Span, MSNBC, CNN, NPR and the BBC. He covered the 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 presidential campaigns.

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All commentaries posted before April 18, 2008, can be accessed at www.dickpolman.blogspot.com.