The Smart Money: This season, underdogs rule

At the NFL season's approximate halfway point, weekly performances against the point spread continue to mystify bettors and oddsmakers alike.

Last weekend's stunner was New England, a four-point favorite, losing at Cleveland by 20 points, 34-14.

It wasn't just that still another home underdog ambushed a favorite in that Patriots-Browns game. After all, that's been the rule this season as underdogs hold an edge, 72-55 (56.7 percent), according to covers.com, a website that reports wagering information and statistics.

Rather, the shock attached to the Patriots-Browns outcome was that New England had been ranked as one of the superior teams in the NFL by handicappers and were Week 9 cofavorites to win the Super Bowl, along with Pittsburgh, at 15-2, according to bodog.com. (Granted, some may argue that the Patriots' stumble should have been foreseen because it was the typical "trap" game, with New England coming off a win over Minnesota and tough games just ahead against Pittsburgh and Indianapolis.)

"I'm not sure the Patriots are really as good as their 6-2 record indicates," said Todd Fuhrman, the Caesars Palace sports analyst who said New England was susceptible to an upset last Sunday partly because of its schedule.

While there's no absolute dominant team, the Steelers have remained atop the power rankings of Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, who provide betting odds to casinos.

"After the Steelers, there's a group of four, five, six teams, and that group changes week to week," Seba said. Teams such as Baltimore, New England, and Atlanta have generally been in that second tier.

"Then there's a group of five or six more teams below that," Seba said. "And this season, the separation between each group is smaller than I've ever seen it."

Seba said he can't put his finger on why parity is so pronounced this year, but he notes that betting on favorites - which is how the public usually wagers - has become a tougher proposition.

"I don't think I've ever seen as many backdoor covers as we've had this year," he said.

A backdoor cover occurs when a favorite has built a big enough lead to cover the spread but a late score by an underdog, while not altering the outcome on the scoreboard, allows the 'dog to beat the spread. That happened in the Eagles' win over the Colts Sunday when Philadelphia was a 31/2-point favorite and an Indianapolis touchdown with less than two minutes to play narrowed the final score to 26-24.

Last week, the trend that has seen underdogs battering favorites moderated a bit as each side won six games with one push. But a season that has been defined by its unpredictability has been yielding some curious point-spread statistics.

For instance, neither of the two best teams against the spread has a winning record. The point-spread darling has been Detroit at 7-1 despite the Lions' being just 2-5 in the NFC North. And the No. 2 team against the line is St. Louis at 6-2; the Rams are 4-4 and tied for first in the mediocre NFC West.

Still, some familiar truths about the point spread and performance remain rock solid even in a season of wagering tumult and uncertainty.

Playoff teams generally have winning records against the spread. Of the 12 NFL teams that are either in sole possession or are tied for division leads, 10 have winning records against the spread and none are below .500.

Wagering on bad teams will lose a bettor money, regardless of how attractive the point spread may appear. Contrary to the Lions' results, teams that consistently lose games outright also have poor records against the spread, even in the year of the underdog. The five worst point-spread records belong to Dallas (1-7) and Cincinnati, Denver, Minnesota, and Carolina (all 2-6). In the actual standings, the Cowboys and Panthers are 1-7, the Bengals and Broncos are 2-6, and the Vikings are 3-5.