Phils' Rollins step closer to returning
PHOENIX - Jimmy Rollins could be back in the Phillies' lineup as early as tomorrow night against the San Francisco Giants.
Finally.
The Phillies have missed Rollins, who sprained his left ankle April 8 against the New York Mets at Shea Stadium. He has been on the disabled list since April 20.
Last night, he went 0 for 3 with a walk and turned two double plays in a rehabilitation game for single-A Clearwater. Unless he suffers a setback before tomorrow night, he seems likely to return.
"Jimmy played today and felt fine," assistant general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said. "We're confident that he's still progressing well and, at this stage, he is still day-to-day."
Eric Bruntlett has played shortstop in Rollins' absence, hitting .235 with two home runs and 10 RBIs in 26 games.
"I think he did a heck of a job," manager Charlie Manuel said.
Bruntlett started slowly but entered last night's game against Arizona hitting .302 with a homer and nine RBIs in the last 14 games. He hit a game-tying double in the eighth inning.
He certainly is feeling more comfortable. It's not exactly easy coming to a new team and almost immediately replacing the reigning National League MVP.
"Getting over the initial feeling that I've got to do everything with every at-bat," Bruntlett said.
But there is no question the Phillies have missed Rollins. He hit .296 with 38 doubles, 20 triples, 30 home runs, 94 RBIs and 41 stolen bases last season, when he won the MVP. He has scored at least 115 runs in each of the last four seasons.
"Jimmy and Shane [Victorino] at the top of our lineup are our catalysts," first baseman Ryan Howard said.
But how much have the Phillies really missed Rollins?
Is it quantifiable?
The Inquirer asked Baseball Prospectus for some help.
Baseball Prospectus uses a statistic called Marginal Lineup Value, which estimates the additional number of runs a player will contribute to a lineup that consists of average offensive performers.
Rollins had a projected .069 MLVR this season, which means he is worth .069 runs per game. But in the first week of the season he had been much better than that. He had a .182 MLVR, so Baseball Prospectus' Joe Sheehan conservatively estimated that Rollins is worth .080 runs per game.
Bruntlett's MLVR is minus-.184, which means the difference between Rollins and Bruntlett over the 26 games Bruntlett has started at shortstop is 6.9 runs. If you figure in Rollins' MLVR for 2007 (.188), that number is higher.
"That is a conservative estimate because a healthy Rollins would take more plate appearances than Bruntlett has, due to batting leadoff," Sheehan said. "I'm applying a level of exactitude that doesn't exist in the real world. Given the error bands on projecting Rollins' performance and the very real plate-appearances issue, I think it's safe to say that the difference between Rollins and Bruntlett, offense only, is about a third of a run per game, which would be nine runs overall."
Those nine runs certainly could have made a difference somewhere.
Of course, that is not a knock on Bruntlett. He has said before that he knows he isn't the player that Rollins is, and that he can't contribute offensively the way Rollins can.
It's just that Rollins is well . . . the MVP.
"It's just everything," Howard said when asked what the team has missed the most with Rollins out. "He brings a lot to the table. Hopefully, he comes back, the ankle is 100 percent, he can jump right back into where he was swinging. He was swinging well. Our main focus is for him to get on base and wreak havoc on the bases."
"The fact that he's a switch-hitter. The fact that he's a base-stealer," said Manuel, echoing Howard's sentiments. "Jimmy hit 30 homers, 20 triples and close to 40 doubles. Jimmy has a big bat. He's a big part of our offense. Jimmy gets on, and that's what makes us go."
He could go tomorrow night.
Read Todd Zolecki's Phillies blog at http://go.philly.com/pzone.
Contact staff writer Todd Zolecki at 215-854-4874 or tzolecki@phillynews.com. Read his blog at http://go.philly.com/phillieszone.
Contact staff writer Todd Zolecki at 215-854-4874 or tzolecki@phillynews.com. Read his blog at http://go.philly.com/phillieszone.


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