Republicans triumphed Tuesday in races for control of the four county courthouses in the Pennsylvania suburbs, with a real scare only in Bucks County - despite poll indications and predictions that Democrats were poised for a historic victory in at least one contest.

Democrats did do better than they did in 2003. The party also made some surprising gains lower on the ballot, including taking five of the nine row offices in Montgomery County for the first time in memory.

Unique local twists influenced the outcome in each county, but analysts said the GOP victories shared characteristics that defied national and regional political trends favoring Democrats.

"It's awful tough to nationalize a local election like this," said Ken Davis, Montgomery County's GOP chairman. "What's national about open space, cutting property taxes, and things like that? You can't equate the courthouse with the White House, and that's what they tried to do."

Voter turnout was relatively low - county courthouse races just don't draw the crowds presidential elections do - and low turnout tends to favor the status quo. Also, the county GOP machines are still good at the mechanics of turnout. Finally, in the closing days Republicans raised fears that Democrats would raise county taxes.

In Bucks and Chester Counties, Republican incumbents said there would be no tax increase for 2008, and the Montgomery County board majority announced a tax cut.

Still, Davis said the 6,023-vote margin by which the GOP kept its second seat on Montgomery County's three-member Board of Commissioners was a little too close for comfort.

County Democrats put on an optimistic face yesterday.

Joe Hoeffel, a former U.S. representative and county commissioner who won the minority seat Tuesday, boasted that the commissioners' race had been the closest ever. He said Democrats would be well-positioned in the new government because they had won a majority of row offices.

"We breached the wall of the Republican bastion," Hoeffel said at a news conference at Montgomery County Democratic Committee headquarters. "The day of Republican domination is over."

In particular, incoming Democratic controller Diane Morgan will join the three commissioners on the county salary board, giving Democrats an important voice on personnel decisions.

Larry Ceisler, a Democratic strategist, said the lower-profile row-office races might be a better indicator of political trends in Montgomery County than the commissioners' race, with its TV advertising.

"It was no-names running against no-names, and people voted the party," Ceisler said. "It was a true generic vote, and they voted Democratic."

Montgomery County Democrats also blamed the loss at the top of the ticket on a devastating GOP ad that said Hoeffel and his running mate, Commissioner Ruth Damsker, were planning a reassessment of county properties if elected - raising the specter of a tax increase.

"Frankly, that was a lie," Damsker said. She had been quoted discussing the possibility in a commission meeting this year, but said she and Hoeffel had made it clear that they were not going to push for a reassessment.

Video from a public meeting gave the GOP ammunition. "We had Ruth on tape," Davis said. "It was a real credibility issue."

Republicans in Delaware County also used the fear of tax increases, arguing that the Democratic candidates for County Council had not spelled out how they would pay for a proposed new health department and open-space program.

Democrats attacked "one-party rule" and said the GOP majority was guilty of waste and corruption.

The accusations were "without hard facts and were easy to dispute," said Andy Reilly, the GOP campaign chairman in Delaware County. "We have record-low unemployment, a new racetrack casino in town, and Major League Soccer approaching - plus we held the line on taxes for seven of the last 10 years. With those things going on, it's hard to make a case of waste and corruption."

David Landau, a Democratic candidate for the Delaware County Council, said low turnout had hampered his party in the county races - "this wasn't a message election" - but the party won municipal races in Ridley Park, Marple Township and Sharon Hill.

"It shows that when you press them [Republicans], you can win some races," Landau said. "I think that trend will continue," and that having local strength will help build an "infrastructure" for bigger races, he said.

In Bucks County, Republican Commissioners Jim Cawley and Charles Martin were returned to the majority, joined by Democrat Diane Marseglia. The second Democratic candidate, Steve Santarsiero, came close to knocking off Martin.

Republicans kept the courthouse by 1,484 votes. Bucks Democrats, energized and aided by freshman U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, were seeking to win a majority on the Board of Commissioners for the first time since 1983.

Toward the end of the race, the Democrats came out against a $140 million proposal for a new courthouse as too expensive, though they had been in favor of it.

"I got a sense there was a trust issue," said Mike Walsh, the GOP campaign manager in Bucks. "The national mood remains not so pro-Republican - the governor in Kentucky was voted out Tuesday, and Republicans lost the Virginia state Senate. We held the courthouses, but it took a lot of work."

No less a political analyst than Gov. Rendell said yesterday that he expected his fellow Democrats to keep knocking on the door in suburbia.

"What you're seeing is the local Republicans are still the Rockefeller-Scranton wing of the party, fiscally conservative and moderate on social issues," Rendell said. "But the margins they won by are radically different than 10 or 15 years ago. There are no longer any local landslides."