Northeastern GOP's death was exaggerated

By Mark Greenbaum

Following washout losses in the 2006 and 2008 elections, many analysts channeled Mark Twain in declaring Republicans "permanently dead" in the Northeast. But Republicans did well in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, and New Hampshire last week, winning back virtually every seat they lost in the previous two cycles and giving Northeastern Republicans unexpected new life.

By the end of 2008, Republicans were reeling in the Mid-Atlantic and New England. Democrats had grabbed five GOP-held House seats in Pennsylvania, one in New Jersey, seven in New York, and two in New Hampshire. This decimated the GOP in these states and provided the backbone of a new Democratic majority. The party's straits were especially dire in New York, where Democrats occupied a whopping 27 of 29 House seats.

In the face of such a deficit, even the most optimistic conservative operative would have had a difficult time believing the GOP would reverse course any time soon. In fact, while Republicans were expected to make gains in this year's elections, their opportunities in the Northeast were seen as decidedly more limited than in the more vulnerable Democratic seats of the South and Midwest.

As it turned out last week, GOP candidates won back all but two of the Northeastern seats the party lost in 2006 and 2008. In Pennsylvania, Democrats in Erie County, Lackawanna County, and the Philadelphia suburbs were beaten; even 13-term Scranton incumbent Paul Kanjorski was ousted.

In New York, Rep. Michael McMahon of Staten Island, Rep. John Hall of Dutchess County, and upstate Democrats Scott Murphy and Michael Arcuri all lost. Disgraced Rep. Eric Massa's seat also flipped. Additionally, Republicans find themselves ahead of both Dan Maffei in the Syracuse-based 25th District and, surprisingly, eight-year House veteran Tim Bishop of Long Island, with both races yet to be called.

Republicans also took back New Hampshire's two congressional seats and New Jersey's Third District, where former Eagles lineman Jon Runyan defeated freshman Rep. John Adler. Maine, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island saw no turnover. Nor did Connecticut, where Democrats were bolstered by Richard Blumenthal's easy victory over Linda McMahon in the top-of-the-ballot U.S. Senate race.

Overall, Republicans picked up 13 new seats in the Northeast, a total that could rise. This has dramatically revitalized a decrepit regional presence and helped put Democrats on their heels nationwide.

Most troubling for Democrats, the GOP's resurgence could be difficult to turn back, as many of these districts tend to lean Republican. According to the Cook Partisan Voting Index, which measures the party loyalty of congressional districts, eight of the GOP's newly won seats are two to eight percentage points more Republican-leaning than the national average. It would probably take another wave election like that of 2006 or 2008 for Democrats to overcome this inherent disadvantage and win back these districts.

Furthermore, Republicans will likely be able to protect their gains through redistricting next year. In Pennsylvania, the GOP took both the governor's mansion and the state House, giving it control over the map-drawing process and an opportunity to fortify several newly won districts. State Republicans spread themselves too thin in 2001, creating several House districts just vulnerable enough to be flipped by Democrats in 2006 and 2008; they're unlikely to make that mistake again.

The situation is different in New York, where Democrat Andrew Cuomo was elected governor. But with Democrats in jeopardy of losing the state Senate, they might be prevented from any favorable gerrymandering. If Republicans end up winning a majority in the chamber, a bloc of new Republican representatives upstate will remain in pink districts and be harder to dislodge. That would be a bitter pill for Democrats, who hoped total control in Albany would help them recoup their national losses.

If there is any consolation for congressional Democrats, it is that their position in the Northeast is far better than in other parts of the country. The midterms swept away most of the Democratic Party's remaining conservative members in such places as Mississippi, southern Alabama, central Georgia, western Missouri, northern Florida, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. The Buckeye State saw nine blue seats go red, and redistricting there is expected to be brutal for Democrats. A relatively quick comeback is feasible in New York, but in other states it could take Democrats decades to return to power.

The Southern Democrat just might be dead. Then again, if the Northeastern Republican can be brought back to life in four years, maybe anything is possible.