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Worldview: Kabul, Taliban are talking

Karzai's government is reaching out to the insurgents - with U.S. support.

KABUL, Afghanistan - The big story here, underreported so far, is the emergence of coordinated American and Afghan efforts to bring Taliban leaders and fighters in from the cold.

When Afghan President Hamid Karzai is inaugurated again next week, he will call for peace and reconciliation with Afghan insurgents. Popular pressure for such efforts is strong, as I have heard in many conversations with Afghan elders and local officials.

Past efforts at reconciliation have been a dismal failure. But a broad consensus has emerged that the Afghan insurgency can't be quelled by military means alone. So U.S. and Afghan officials are looking to develop more effective programs to reintegrate low- and mid-level Taliban into society. And U.S. officials are now open to efforts by the Karzai government to explore whether top Taliban leaders may be ready to give up fighting and live by constitutional rules.

"We haven't changed the policy," one U.S. official told me, "but we have changed the emphasis in an important way. Now we are actively encouraging an Afghan-led process for reintegration of Taliban, or any insurgents willing to lay down their arms" and respect the Afghan constitution.

When it comes to contacts between Afghan officials and top Taliban leaders, this official made clear that the most pressing American concern was whether such leaders are willing to break convincingly with al-Qaeda.

"We believe our strategic problem with the Taliban begins and ends with their support for al-Qaeda and their aggression against the United States and our allies," he said. "If the Taliban made clear that they have broken with al-Qaeda and that their own objectives were nonviolent and political - however abhorrent to us - we wouldn't be keeping 68,000-plus troops here. We'd certainly continue to support Afghans who are leading the way for human rights and democratic reforms, but we'd do so mainly through traditional means of diplomacy and development assistance."

So what does this shift in emphasis mean on the ground?

Lt. Gen. Sir Graeme Lamb, a former British special forces commander, has been heading the coalition's recent efforts to get Taliban to switch sides, a role he played with Sunni insurgents in Iraq. The Afghan political landscape is far more complex than Iraq's, but some Taliban are already laying down arms on their own, encouraged by local elders, as I witnessed in Wardak province.

The Americans want the Afghan government to take the lead in dealing with lower-level Taliban and, most definitely, in contacting Taliban leaders. Karzai's adviser on reintegration, Mohammed Masoom Stanikzai, told me that by December he hopes to put together a comprehensive plan that would offer protection and economic aid to Taliban who switch sides.

Previous Afghan plans for turning the Taliban failed because they lacked both a coherent strategy and capable leadership, and because officials did not consult with provincial leaders. Much will depend on whether those deficits are remedied. Less corruption would also help.

As for starting talks with the big Taliban, that will be much more dicey. With rare exceptions, U.S. diplomats in Kabul don't even meet with former officials from the 1990s Taliban government who switched sides years ago and live in Kabul. One part-time adviser to Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, Barnett Rubin, pursues the issue of reconciliation while wearing his other hat, as an Afghanistan expert at New York University.

I sensed no urgency on the American side to see dialogue with the big Taliban in the near term. Top U.S. military commanders believe senior Taliban commanders aren't likely to compromise until the momentum shifts on the ground.

Big Taliban leaders based in Pakistan have rejected previous Karzai overtures. Stanikzai stresses that the timing of any new peace overture is crucial. Calling for negotiations too soon - before Afghanistan is more stable - would convey weakness.

The key to future peace talks may be sequencing - moving first on reconciliation with smaller fry, which would increase pressure on the top. "If we have an impact on reintegration from below, that will affect the big-T Taliban," Stanikzai said. "If you combine bottom-up and top-down, you can have a meaningful result." This thinking is echoed by U.S. counterinsurgency experts.

So watch the development of Karzai's plan for peace and reconciliation, and whom he appoints to implement it. Bottom-up, top-down may be a key to when U.S. troops come home.


Trudy Rubin can be reached at trubin@phillynews.com.
Comments   
Posted 07:00 AM, 11/11/2009
brian stewart
This is just another ploy to rip off the U.S. for more money, sure lets pay the lower level guy to lay down his arms yep that will work, who the heck is in charge and comes up with these ideas, we lost over 4000 men so far and now we want to pay someone to give up his gun, like he doesn't have another one hidden, hopefully some of these so called experts will be in a building which gets blown up the Taliban.
Posted 08:32 AM, 11/12/2009
juicethedeuce
It never ceases to mystify me how Ms. Rubin can so loyally repeat blatant lies she must know to be false. The simple fact is that there are no links between the Afghan Taliban and Al Qaeda. General McChrystal has confirmed this reality when he stated that there is no "large Al Qaeda presence in Afghanistan" on 9/11 of this year, National Security Advisor General Jim Jones has admitted that there are less than 100 Al Qaeda operatives in Afghanistan, and the New York Times has exposed the antagonistic divisions between the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban, the former representing a purely Pashtun nationalist movement that has no interest in a cooperating with Al Qaeda. These are the facts on the ground that Ms. Rubin, intelligent as she is, cannot help but be aware of. Therefore, the Afghan Taliban is not waging a highly successful insurgency against the Western occupation forces and their Afghan clients in Kabul because "they hate our freedoms" and they want to help Al Qaeda kill us, but rather the diverse assortment of Pashtun peasants who compose the Taliban are simply infuriated by the sheer corruption and outright larceny on which the Western-sustained Afghan narco-state is founded. The Taliban currently control over 9 provinces through shadow governments because the Kabul regime of Hamid Karzai, which would crumble in a matter of seconds without the backing of Western bayonets, is so inept and inherently corrupt that its very rule constitutes a racket by the handful of warlords against the Afghan people.
Posted 08:35 AM, 11/12/2009
hp_jj_saeed
I believe that with the U.S supporting this government even though all the passed Afghan plans for turning the Taliban failed would really, help everyone in the long run. The previous plans failed because they lacked both strategy leadership, and because there was a tremendous amount of corruption in the government. But with the support from the U.S government there will be leadership and strategy, and the U.S will gain another ally with some benefits.
Posted 12:03 AM, 11/13/2009
flotzydaclown
Finally, some good news from overseas. It seems like the Taliban are finally willing to cooperate, and are taking the initiative in making peace. However, I am still concerned with the al-Qaeda, and that there has been no progress made there. I understand that we are close to a huge step in the right direction, but let's not count our chickens before they hatch Trudy. Let's keep a watchful eye on the al-Qaeda, and see how they react to the peace and emergance of a cooperative Taliban group headed by Karzai.
Posted 08:21 AM, 11/13/2009
whachamacallit
The idea of having the US cooperate and even support Taliban members or former members. However, at this point in the conflict, I'm starting to feel that almost any idea is worth a shot as the present strategy has not worked and is costing huge price in American and allied finances and lives. I find the idea of giving power and support to people who don't even try to make commitments to peace and equality very frightening, but maybe this strategy would be a good one if more could be done to insure that after switching sides the ex members would be prevented from terrorizing citizens and forcing Sheria law and other extremist Islamic practices on the people.
Posted 08:33 AM, 11/13/2009
phillies269
I feel this is great news as it lessens parallels between Al-Queda and the Taliban. However, the fact that Taliban support for Al-Queda hinders the oppurtunity for change I feel our course of action should be attacking said support, although we are already engaged in such an attack, right? Furthermore, I feel this strategy would be fool-proof if it incorporated the idea that the Taliban will actually cooperate. We do not know what the outcome of trying to get the Taliban to be civil will be, leaving a sense of ambiguity as to what we should do next. In conclusion, I feel the plan could use some retouching on the basis of incentives, perhaps, for those who are willing to be constitutional and civil (in the Taliban).
Posted 09:02 AM, 11/13/2009
murph82591
I feel that what trudy is saying if legit is a good step for the united states and is good for us to help the afghan government incorporate the taliban into sociepaty if they agree to follow the rules. My one concern with this is that she says that past efforts were a failure. I agree that in order for this to work the taliban must break off ties with al Queda like it is said here. I feel that this hope for the taliban to just agree is a stretch and is very unlikely to happen. I think this has a liberal bias to it hoping that they are just going to lay down their arms and comply with the united states and afghan government. how can people believe this is going to be different than any other attempt to have the taliban stop their violence when the same type of corruption continues to take place starting with Karzai.
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