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PAUL LACHINE
PAUL LACHINE
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Commentary

To succeed with Iran, push a nuke-free zone

A regional approach would benefit entire Mideast.

Several years were wasted in encouraging Iran to suspend its uranium-enrichment program by making this a precondition for talks. We should give President Obama credit for dropping this futile condition and for the recent start of negotiations. Only direct contact can determine if agreement is possible.

The signals are mixed. After the recent suicide bombing in southeast Iran, outside countries were blamed for supporting groups responsible for the attack. However, meetings last week in Vienna may show if Iran is willing to go through with an apparent readiness to send most of the uranium it has so far enriched to a low level for further enrichment in Russia. Such a development would mean a drastic reduction in Iran's stock of enriched uranium. However, it would not tell us if there is an Iranian readiness to negotiate about the original program.

Some are convinced that Iran seeks to develop a nuclear weapon. The issue is not really dispositive of the current negotiations. Even if Iran were to have no such intention today, it could change its mind tomorrow. The issue, then, is persuading Iran to abandon its enrichment program.

Both incentives and disincentives have been tried. To justify harsh punitive measures, some wish to show that the Iranian government is lying. However, trying to shame Iran will not improve the chances of agreement - which should be the most important objective. Moreover, sharp economic sanctions and military measures could have dire consequences and rally nationalist-minded Iranians to support a government the majority otherwise opposes.

Earlier European messages to Iran have pointed to possible rewards, such as support for civilian nuclear power construction and membership in the World Trade Organization. These incentives have evidently not been enough. It does not mean that diplomacy is exhausted. After 30 years of no diplomatic relations with the United States and recurrent U.S. reminders that all options "are on the table" - including military options - perhaps assurances against attack and of diplomatic relations could carry some weight in the negotiation.

A broadening of the agenda for discussion has been suggested. Iran has said it is ready to take up the subjects of nonproliferation and disarmament. These items could offer new openings. Even the subject of a Mideast free of weapons of mass destruction could be broached. That idea could be expanded to an area free of uranium enrichment and plutonium production. All countries in the region have supported the concept, but for Israel it has always been a very remote possibility.

Israel may look at its nuclear weapons capability as insurance against a possible existential threat. However, this perception could change if one or more states in the region were to develop nuclear weapons or move close to weapons capability by enriching uranium or producing plutonium. To avoid such a situation, perhaps Israel would consider an agreement under which all countries in the region would renounce and eliminate nuclear weapons as well as nuclear fuel cycle installations.

Such thinking may be far from the mind of current Israeli leaders, but isn't it preferable to its usual response to nuclear activities? Bombing Iraq's Osirak reactor in 1981 and, in 2007, attacking Syrian installations claimed to be a North Korean-designed research reactor? Or more recent threats to bomb Iranian installations?

Today, with Iran and other states in the Middle East moving into nuclear activities, the zone idea has new appeal. For Iran, giving up enrichment within the framework of a zone would be different from acting unilaterally. It could contribute to a broader goal of regional disarmament and nonproliferation.

I do not underestimate the problems, such as verification or of outside assurances of security and supply of uranium fuel. Yet, if the Obama administration is serious about nonproliferation and disarmament, a bold, broad approach is needed. The problem is difficult, but by no means insoluble.

 


Hans Blix was director of the International Atomic Energy Agency for 16 years, and the lead inspector for alleged Iraqi WMD. Tonight in Philadelphia, he will receive the John and Chara Haas International Peace Award from the Project for Nuclear Awareness at the Double Tree Hotel. For more information, visit www.projectfornuclearawareness.org.

 

Comments   
Posted 06:13 AM, 10/26/2009
James
How would Curtis LeMay, founder of Strategic Air Command handle this problem? He would call Iran's bluff by activating the nations nuclear delivery systems - ICBM's, SLBM's and manned bombers to be ready at a moment's notice to pulverize Iran. When this clown Amadejadein sees what he is against, he will feel the breath sucked out of his lungs. And this clown would quickly lose respect among his people and military men for his stupidity in needlessly aggravating tensions with the West. No need to beg and cajole Iran to be "reasonable" when you are being humiliated by them every day. Save four years and four months of useless wasted opportunities to reach otu to them when they don't want to even talk to you by showing your full deck of cards including your nuclear options to shut their pipe up! That is how streetwise Philly Guys would handle this problem. Let the strong, silent men of blue clean out the vermin in Tehran.
Posted 06:14 AM, 10/26/2009
James
How would Curtis LeMay, founder of Strategic Air Command handle this problem? He would call Iran's bluff by activating the nations nuclear delivery systems - ICBM's, SLBM's and manned bombers to be ready at a moment's notice to pulverize Iran. When this clown Amadejadein sees what he is against, he will feel the breath sucked out of his lungs. And this clown would quickly lose respect among his people and military men for his stupidity in needlessly aggravating tensions with the West. No need to beg and cajole Iran to be "reasonable" when you are being humiliated by them every day. Save four years and four months of useless wasted opportunities to reach otu to them when they don't want to even talk to you by showing your full deck of cards including your nuclear options to shut their pipe up! That is how streetwise Philly Guys would handle this problem. Let the strong, silent men of blue clean out the vermin in Tehran.
Posted 06:14 AM, 10/26/2009
James
How would Curtis LeMay, founder of Strategic Air Command handle this problem? He would call Iran's bluff by activating the nations nuclear delivery systems - ICBM's, SLBM's and manned bombers to be ready at a moment's notice to pulverize Iran. When this clown Amadejadein sees what he is against, he will feel the breath sucked out of his lungs. And this clown would quickly lose respect among his people and military men for his stupidity in needlessly aggravating tensions with the West. No need to beg and cajole Iran to be "reasonable" when you are being humiliated by them every day. Save four years and four months of useless wasted opportunities to reach out to them when they don't want to even talk to you by showing your full deck of cards including your nuclear options to shut their pipe up! That is how streetwise Philly Guys would handle this problem. Let the strong, silent men of blue clean out the vermin in Tehran.
Posted 09:37 AM, 10/26/2009
Sam D
Hans Blix has proven that he is a person that should be listened to. Had Bush and his cronies listened to Blix in February and March of 2003, there would have been no criminal invasion of Iraq. The UN WMD inspector teams, under Blix, were on the ground in Iraq for four full months before Bush went in to prove he was a bigger man than his father. The inspectors continually reported "No WMDs here" and also that Saddam, as March drew near, was indeed cooperating. The team even went to the places noted by Cheney and Rumsfeld when they said "we know where the WMDs are" and found diddly-squat. Eventually even Bush had to agree there were no WMDs. Had W listened to Blix, we'd have over 4,000 Americans who didn't lose their life, and over 600,000 Iraqi families who didn't hate us for killing a family member. Pay attention to Blix!
Posted 12:45 PM, 10/26/2009
EstherHaman
For a sovereign nation such as Iran, being a signatory to the NPT should speak for itself. This is the core of Iran's issue with the West. However, the Zionist propaganda machine is turning this issue, falsely into an "existential" issue. The same argument however can be used by the Iranians, that the 200+ A-bombs that the Zionists currently hold are serious threat to them and the rest of the Islamic world. We on the other hand are stuck with no argument of our own. For 30 years we turned our head and let the Zionists develop/steel their A-bombs and with that we have broken the NPT ourselves. We never pushed for the "Dimona" nuclear facilities to be inspected by the IAEA, However, the Iranian program have been under the inspection by the IAEA for the last 10 years, the longest in this agency's history and no smoking guns have ever been found. These biases against Iran and other nations has cost us our credibility and we will have rougher times ahead. We just can't afford to send in the military just because we can't make sense any longer. Each time we try to open our mouth and be diplomatic we end up showing how hypocritical we are.
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