The Elephant in the Room: 'Hardball' host may not be Specter's chief worry

Will MSNBC's Chris Matthews return to his boyhood home of Montgomery County to play real hardball against five-term Sen. Arlen Specter? That question is all the buzz in Pennsylvania political circles - once again.

I remember talking with Matthews about the same topic six years ago. We were in the makeup room before a segment of his show, Hardball, at American University.

His apparent high-minded seriousness about a possible run surprised me. Within months, however, he signed a multimillion-dollar contract extension with MSNBC. Later, when I asked him what happened to his aspirations to public service, he quoted Vito Corleone: MSNBC had made him an offer he "couldn't refuse."

Will hard cash again trump hardball? The MSNBC brass have made it clear that they expect Matthews to stay with the network. For his part, the Hardball host is enjoying the holidays with the family while the speculation drives his contract numbers higher.

If he does run, Matthews will be a formidable candidate. He is articulate, well-known, and even well-liked. He'll have access to a national fund-raising base, and he can create a policy platform that matches up well with moderate Pennsylvania.

His downside? Like many celebrities, Matthews has star ego as well as star power.

Also, while he has no voting record to attack, Matthews is responsible for countless juicy TV sound bites that will, shall we say, send a thrill going up Specter's leg.

In what should be a much better year for Republicans, top-tier Democrats may steer away from a tough race against a moderate incumbent and focus on the open governor's office instead. Specter's real test could come in the Republican primary. Conservative Republicans may pose the most immediate threat to this most endangered of species: the quintessential, if almost extinct, Northeastern moderate Republican.

Specter's 2004 GOP primary opponent, former Lehigh Valley Rep. Pat Toomey, is mapping out a new campaign. But for what office? If Toomey, now president of the Club for Growth, doesn't run for the U.S. Senate, State Sen. Jane Orie and state House Minority Whip Mike Turzai head a list of possible conservative candidates.

But Specter's biggest problem in the Republican primary may not be his opponent. Rather, it may be that thousands of Southeastern Pennsylvania Republicans who voted for him in 2004 can't vote for him in the primary. Why? Because they're no longer Republicans.

Then there is the "41" factor. No, not the 41st president, George H.W. Bush. The number of Senate Republicans will stand at 41 with the apparent defeat of Minnesota Republican Sen. Norm Coleman. That's just enough Republicans to sustain a filibuster. If one Republican breaks with the party, a united Democratic majority would be able to send any bill it wanted to President Barack Obama for his signature.

This will be the first time since the 1970s that either party has been so close to a filibuster-proof majority. Over the last 40 years, moderates from both parties had plenty of leeway to vote against their party. The 41 factor will change that.

While plenty of votes could rile up the Republican faithful, one is likely to stand above the rest. So-called card-check legislation would eliminate the secret ballot in union organizing elections. It is called card check because all union organizers would have to do to certify a union at any workplace is get a majority of employees to sign a card authorizing a union. The legislation even allows union organizers to visit an employee's house up to four times to "persuade" him or her to sign the card. Vito Corleone's famous line again comes to mind.

In the last Congress, Specter was the only Republican to vote against a filibuster on card check. If he does so again in the next Congress, this legislation will become law. And Specter will lose the business community - some of his most loyal fund-raisers - as well as GOP activists who see card check as a sure way to lock in Democratic control in Pennsylvania and elsewhere.

Matthews may be the buzz, but the bee in my friend and former Senate colleague's bonnet is the new politics of 41. As Chris Matthews says at the start of each show, "Let's play hardball."