Forecast lets Philly-area school administrators down

By 4 a.m. Wednesday, Superintendent Richard Noonan was on the phone with his transportation staff, checking road conditions around the Wallingford-Swarthmore School District.

Like administrators throughout the region, Noonan rises early on bad-weather days. He surveys forecasts, touches base with superintendents in neighboring districts, and calls staff members responsible for clearing parking lots, driveways, and sidewalks near district schools.

Most days, that process works pretty well. On Wednesday, Noonan said, the forecasters let him and other administrators down.

"I can't recall a day where the forecasting was as dead-on inaccurate as it was today," the superintendent of the Delaware County district said. "This was kind of a perfect storm here today, or an imperfect storm."

The storm resulted in dozens of districts declaring snow days and dismissing students early. Some students were picked up by school buses, only to be taken home without ever arriving at school. Some schools opened late; many closed early.

Noonan made the call to open Wallingford-Swarthmore on schedule by 5:30 a.m. - the district deadline for such decisions.

For the Philadelphia School District, decision-making usually begins about 3:30 a.m., when Jeffrey Cardwell, senior vice president of facilities and operations, rises and starts working the phones.

He, too, checks weather forecasts. He talks to Streets Commissioner Clarena Tolson, discussing the city's read on the storm and whether its streets have been plowed. Then he contacts Deputy Superintendent Leroy Nunery and other members of the district's executive team.

The group considers not just what conditions might be like for 162,000 students getting in, but a host of other factors: Will teachers, many of them coming from the suburbs, have a hard time making their way? Can food deliveries happen? Would a delayed opening make sense?

Wednesday's storm was a nightmare, Cardwell said.

"Unfortunately, this morning, we heard that it was going to be a light snow turning into rain," he said. "This snow took everybody for a good ride."

When it became clear that the storm would be heavier than initially predicted, the team convened again and made the decision: Schools would dismiss at noon to get students and staff home before the snow got heavy again.

On Wednesday night, the snow was heavy enough that Philadelphia district officials didn't wait. They had canceled Thursday classes before 10 p.m.

Several administrators said they do their best to read the clouds, but it can be difficult.

"I've got a Ph.D. in education; it's not in meteorology," said Larry Mussoline, superintendent of the Downingtown Area School District in Chester County, which closed for the day.

Lisa Andrejko, superintendent of the Quakertown Community School District in Bucks County, which opened on time but dismissed early, makes her call taking into account information she receives through her premium membership in a weather service providing hourly forecasts with information on expected precipitation. Still, she said, it's not easy.

"We hate these days," Andrejko said. "We're not expert weathermen. We're just trying to make sure the kids are safe."

Second-guessing is inevitable. James Scanlon, superintendent of the West Chester Area School District, said he would always rather hear from a parent complaining while his or her child is home safe than learn about a stranded school bus.

School administrators must be masters of diplomacy, whatever their decision.

Mark Raivetz, superintendent of Haddon Township schools in Camden County, received an e-mail from a parent who called the decision to open schools on time Wednesday "inconsiderate and bordering on negligent."

Raivetz responded that the decision to open or close during inclement weather is not made lightly, and explained the multifaceted process.

"Thanks for taking the time to write," he concluded.

Noonan, who said his own children used to lobby him for a snow day via e-mail and text messages, put it this way:

"We've got a great relationship with our parents. We make the best decisions that we can, and for the most part, people are pretty understanding."

"Did I get a few early Valentines today? Yes."