Specter dominates as Sestak tries to lure undecideds

Given high voter anger at Washington, basement-level approval ratings for incumbents, and a party switcher for an opponent, most analysts figured at the outset that Rep. Joe Sestak had a decent chance to defeat Sen. Arlen Specter in the May 18 Democratic primary.

But when the spotlight clicked on, Specter grabbed the microphone - and he hasn't let go.

Now, as the two prepare to meet Saturday night in their only televised debate, time is running out for Sestak. Specter has seemed to dominate the narrative of the race since both men began running television advertising eight days ago.

Specter's campaign for a sixth term put Sestak on the defensive with an attack ad that recounted the murky circumstances under which the retired admiral left the Navy in 2005 and his missed votes in the House.

Specter became a Democrat last year and has been embraced as the party's better choice by President Obama, Gov. Rendell, state Democratic activists, and organized labor.

"Sestak was already less well-known, has had structural problems in his campaign, and is running against the party establishment," said Democratic political consultant David Dunphy of Philadelphia. "There are ways to spin that to your advantage, but he just doesn't have enough time."

Sestak has only 19 campaigning days left to juggle his advertising to finish introducing himself to statewide voters while sowing doubts about Specter.

The Sestak campaign responded to the first negative ad with rallies by veterans who said they were outraged that Specter would tarnish his opponent's 31-year Navy record. On Thursday, Sestak launched an ad that features veterans, virtually identical to one used to combat the same attack in his first 2006 House campaign. "Tell Arlen Specter to stop lying about Joe Sestak's military record," it says.

Still, Sestak has not refuted the assertion in Specter's ad, based on news reports quoting anonymous Pentagon sources, that he was let go in 2005 from a top Navy job for creating a "poor command climate." Sestak retired from the service several months later.

Sestak's strategists believe that Specter has sparked a negative backlash for the "relieved of duty" ad. This week, the Specter campaign replaced the attack spot with a positive commercial in which actor Michael J. Fox, who has Parkinson's disease, praised the senator's role in increasing federal funding for biomedical research.

Then, on Thursday, Specter launched an ad that blasts Sestak for paying most of his campaign staff less than the minimum wage.

It is telling, Sestak supporters say, that Specter has not closed the deal.

Specter led Sestak by an average of 44 percent to 30 percent in the five latest independent polls, according to the Web site pollster.com. The lead has stayed consistent for several months, though Specter has not broken 50 percent. Sestak has much more room to grow.

"Undecideds are starting to break our way," said Richard Sestak, the candidate's brother and campaign director. "Arlen's negatives are so bad, the only option he has left is to just make Joe a caricature."

Richard Sestak declined to release private campaign polling data, which are usually tightly held.

Just over a third of voters in many public polls say Specter deserves reelection. On the other hand, the respected Quinnipiac University poll has measured consistently high approval ratings for Specter among Democrats, the pool of voters for the primary. In the latest Quinnipiac poll, out on April 7, Specter was viewed favorably by 60 percent of the Democrats who responded, while 26 percent said they disapproved of him.

Pollster Terry Madonna of Franklin and Marshall College said the battle would come down to an estimated 25 percent to 30 percent of Democrats who are undecided or say they may change their minds.

"For Sestak to win, he's got to get a majority of those, and Specter has to define him as unacceptable," Madonna said.

For Sestak to break through, Muhlenberg College pollster Chris Borick said, he needs to pound away to convince voters he is more electable in November against the Republican nominee, expected to be former Rep. Pat Toomey.

"His best shot is to remind Democrats why [Specter] might not be the best face of the party now with all this dissatisfaction with the status quo," Borick said. "Who has more of an inside-the-beltway aura than Arlen Specter?"

Not that this will be easy.

"Specter is going to be OK up here," said Ed Mitchell, a Democratic consultant from Wilkes-Barre. "He's always worked the area rigorously, and has had an appeal above party that's carrying over." But he later said he thought Sestak's veterans ad would help him in northeastern Pennsylvania, though Mitchell did not "think it's enough."

There is a pocket of support for Sestak among liberal activists in Pittsburgh's 14th Ward, but the challenger has not yet broken through in Western Pennsylvania, said Pat Sweeney, a lawyer on the executive board of the Allegheny County Democratic Party.

"People aren't real crazy about Arlen Specter, but nobody's so appalled by him that they want to dump him, either," Sweeney said.

Jim Burn, chairman of the Allegheny County party, said Sestak had plenty of cash to work with - $5 million - but so far had little to show for it.

"I don't believe Joe Sestak has put the right team in place to be an effective statewide campaign," Burn said. "He's very incoherent in his approach."

The one-hour debate between Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak is scheduled to start at 7 p.m. Saturday in Fox29's Philadelphia studios.

The debate will air live on CBS3, 6ABC and Fox29. It will also air on MYPHL17 at 9 p.m. Saturday.

It can also be seen Sunday at 9 a.m. on NBC10 and at 11 a.m. on CW57.

EndText