Gov. Rendell, who is pushing a tax hike to plug the deficit.
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In budget rhetoric, do Rendell's numbers add up?
HARRISBURG - If Gov. Rendell has said it once, he's said it a hundred times - or literally close to that.
The 16 percent income-tax hike he is pushing to help fill this year's massive budget hole would affect only "five out of 10" Pennsylvanians.
But in true campaign-style hyperbole, it's what the governor isn't saying that's the most telling.
According to Rendellian math - grudgingly confirmed by his aides - the list of those who would not pay the added income taxes include Pennsylvanians in diapers and Pull-Ups, those behind bars, and those on the unemployment lines hoping to pay taxes again sometime soon.
In all, roughly 6.6 million Pennsylvanians - or about half the state population - now pay income taxes, and they would all pay the higher rate.
"That's five of 10 - absolutely accurate," Rendell press secretary Chuck Ardo said, doing his best to hold back a smile.
It is, his critics say, typical Rendell - skew the numbers to make the point, the whole truth be damned.
"My 8-year-old son will be relieved that his allowance is safe," said Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati (R., Jefferson), who compared Rendell to a snake-oil salesman.
It's not the only liberty Rendell has taken with budget numbers in a year when the economy is in the tank, state revenue is plummeting, and the deficit is exploding.
Just recently, he said Pennsylvanians would surely support his income-tax hike if they only knew what was at stake and how little it would cost them. Or, by his math, $4.80 a week for someone earning $50,000 yearly. He maintained it would be a small price to save necessary state programs.
The fine print: That worker would wind up paying nearly $750 over the three-year period that the hike would last before reverting back to the lower rate.
Then there is the overall budget figure itself.
Rendell says he has made $2 billion in cuts to the $29 billion spending plan he introduced in February.
Common subtraction has it that $29 billion - $2 billion = $27 billion. Rendell's math tells you that $29 billion - $2 billion = well, just about $29 billion.
How so?
Rendell argues that he has made steep and painful cuts to state spending, but acknowledges that much of it has been offset by mandatory increases out of his control, such as paying for higher welfare costs.
"Luckily, he doesn't teach math at the University of Pennsylvania," Steve Miskin, spokesman for House Republicans, said of the governor and sometime Penn government professor.
The state is facing a $3.2 billion deficit this year, and Rendell and Republicans have been arguing for months over the best way to plug it. The governor is advocating a mix of cuts and tax increases, including the income-tax hike. The GOP is dead set against the income-tax increase and is advocating steeper cuts instead.
In the meantime, the deadline to pass a budget came and went July 1 without even the pretense of a deal in the works. And the two sides continue to take swipes at each other's plans to deal with the crisis.
Just last week, the administration found itself on the defensive over claims that without a tax hike, as many as 800 state troopers could be laid off.
The president of the Pennsylvania State Troopers Association called it an unrealistic scare tactic.
"It's clearly politics at its best - or at its worst," said Bruce Edwards, whose group represents 4,400 troopers.
Scarnati was even more blunt.
"When selling snake oil, you have to raise the hype level of fear to nuclear doomsday," said Scarnati. "But the price of snake oil just keeps going down because he can't sell any."
Ardo, however, insisted that the governor wasn't trying to mislead.
"The governor uses numbers to make a point," he said. "His numbers are not inaccurate, although sometimes they do not tell the whole story."
Contact staff writer Mario F. Cattabiani at 717-787-5990 or mcattabiani@phillynews.com.
