Third District race shaping up as South Jersey's most interesting

A U.S. Senate and three House races headline the election Tuesday in South Jersey.

The most heavily watched contest is the hard-fought Third Congressional District, where Republican Tom MacArthur is sparring with Democrat Aimee Belgard. The contest has drawn national attention.

Voters also will decide two statewide ballot questions and county, municipal, and school board races. Polls will be open 6 a.m. to 8 p.m.

Democratic Sen. Cory A. Booker, who is trying to win his first full six-year term, holds a 16-point lead over Republican Jeff Bell, according to Real Clear Politics' average of polls last week.

Despite the popular Booker on the ticket, don't expect a heavy turnout in this off year when there's no presidential or gubernatorial race, said Daniel J. Douglas, director of the William J. Hughes Center at the Richard Stockton College of New Jersey. He predicted turnout between 40 and 45 percent.

"It's a bad year for Democrats and a good year for incumbents," he said. "The only really interesting races are the ones without incumbents, particularly District Three."

"Traditionally, the sixth year of a two-term presidency is a bad year for his party," Douglas said. President Obama's popularity "is down in the 40s right now. People are unhappy, and they are going to take it out on the president's party. It's nothing new."

In the heated Third District race, MacArthur, a former insurance CEO and Randolph mayor, and Belgard, a trial lawyer and Burlington County freeholder, launched a barrage of TV and radio ads to trade accusations.

The Belgard campaign has linked MacArthur, the former head of an insurance services company, to lawsuits over denying disaster relief claims and overtime employee wages. MacArthur's team has painted Belgard as a tax-and-spend Democrat who laid off police officers in her hometown. Both candidates have denied the allegations, saying they were taken out of context and distorted. On Friday, Republicans challenged hundreds of mail ballots in the district.

The Third District seat opened when Republican Jon Runyan decided not to seek reelection. Republicans have traditionally held the district, which covers much of Burlington and Ocean Counties, but Obama won support from the district in his two elections.

MacArthur has spent $5 million of his own money so far on the campaign, including the June primary, according to Federal Election Commission reports. Belgard has contributed $3,200 of her own money and raised about $1.5 million.

In the race to replace former Rep. Rob Andrews in the First District, State Sen. Donald Norcross (D., Camden) is heavily favored over former Philadelphia Eagle and Republican Garry Cobb.

The race also includes five independent candidates: Scot Tomaszewski, Margaret Chapman, Donald Letton, Mike Berman, and Robert Shapiro.

The Democratic hotbed district is made up of 36 municipalities in Camden County, 14 in Gloucester, and two in Burlington. Andrews endorsed Norcross the day after he announced his resignation in February.

Norcross, brother of South Jersey Democratic leader George Norcross III, has raised nearly $1.7 million. He has touted his record over six years in the state Senate, including sponsoring last year's Economic Opportunity Act, which uses tax incentives to attract businesses to South Jersey.

Cobb has raised a fraction of the Norcross campaign - about $100,000 - relying mostly on national Republican and tea party group contributions, though he has presented himself as more of a moderate Republican. He has spent much of the campaign criticizing the Camden County leadership status quo and arguing for change.

Second District incumbent Frank LoBiondo, a Republican, first ran for Congress in 1992 against Rep. Bill Hughes Sr. He lost by 14 points but won the seat two years later when Hughes retired.

Now Hughes' son, Democratic challenger William Hughes Jr., 47, of Northfield, a former federal prosecutor who has worked for the Cooper Levenson law firm in Atlantic City the last dozen years, wants his father's old seat.

In seeking an 11th term, LoBiondo, 68, of Vineland, has the advantages of incumbency, name recognition, and crossover appeal in a traditional swing district where Democrats outnumber Republicans. He also has a deep war chest with more than $2 million - almost four times that of Hughes, who had raised $600,000 as of Sept. 30.

The race has focused on New Jersey's economy, which lags the rest of the nation. Four casino closings in Atlantic City so far this year have resulted in more than 8,000 job losses and an 11.4 percent unemployment rate, double the national average of 5.9 percent.

While Republicans are trying to wrestle control of the U.S. Senate, New Jersey is seen as a tough win.

Booker, 45, a former Newark mayor, won a special election last year to complete the term of the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg. He has campaigned on moving beyond partisanship in Washington and has focused on improving the criminal justice system, which he says is "destroying" America's cities.

Bell, 70, was New Jersey's GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1978, and later served as a campaign aide to President Ronald Reagan. He wants to overhaul the country's monetary policy, advocating a return to a system backed by gold, which was last used in the 1970s. He also opposes the Federal Reserve's zero-interest rate policy, saying it has resulted in stagnant wages.

New Jersey voters also will be asked to consider two statewide ballot questions. The first would allow courts the option of denying bail in certain criminal cases in which the defendant poses a flight risk or a safety threat to another person or the community. The second asks whether to dedicate 6 percent of corporate business tax revenues to open-space preservation and other environmental programs, shifting some funding from water and soil programs.