Health forecasters see a normal flu season

Nearly two years after pandemic flu terrified, however briefly, a lot of Americans, and nearly one year after all flu virtually disappeared, public-health officials said Friday that the early signs were pointing toward the return of a normal flu season.

This does not mean much, since everything about the flu - where, when, how widespread, how severe - varies from year to year. But an average season sees one or two key influenza type "A" strains and one influenza type "B" strain appear around the country in late fall or early winter, get an infectious boost at holiday gatherings, and then make a lot of people sick between January and March.

Hence, National Influenza Vaccination Week, beginning Sunday.

"We must always remember that even healthy people, young adults, and children can become severely ill from the flu," Howard Koh, an assistant secretary at the Department of Health and Human Services, said Friday in a briefing for reporters.

Four flu-related deaths have been reported in Pennsylvania this fall (none in New Jersey), although the victims had underlying medical conditions.

Tim Raymond, a healthy youngster who played football, baseball, basketball, and saxophone in Bucks County, got sick the night before Halloween last year, three weeks before his scheduled flu shot at school. He turned 13 while on life support and died March 6, about 11/2 hours after a double lung transplant to replace the organs that had been destroyed by the flu virus.

"I heard the question probably 60 times: You're sure he didn't have any underlying conditions? You're sure he didn't have asthma? No. The kid was healthy as an ox," his mother, Tina Raymond, said Friday from the family's Warrington home.

Timmy was found to have swine flu, or "2009 A/H1N1." That is one of the three key strains - the others are an A/H3N2 and a Type B - that are circulating this year.

So far, the H3N2 has been dominant - not necessarily a good thing, since that typically has caused more severe illness in recent decades than the H1N1 strains.

All three are included in this year's all-inclusive seasonal flu vaccine. And supplies are plentiful.

Manufacturers had shipped a record 163 million doses by Nov. 19, federal officials reported. And a national survey two weeks earlier found that about 30 percent of children and 33 percent of adults had already been vaccinated, with slightly higher rates in Philadelphia, one of 20 localities broken out in the data.

"We are well-stocked, and we are not close to running out," said David Pollack, senior physician at three Delaware County practices that are part of the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia network.

"The demand is probably as it is every year."

Public vaccine clinics, many of them free, are being offered in every county around the region. Health officials at several said demand had been disappointing.

"There seems to be little interest or concern about flu this year," said Caroline Johnson, director of the Philadelphia Department of Public Health's Division of Disease Control, which supplies dozens of daily walk-in clinics around the city. "This could be H1N1 burn-out, or it could be that we have not yet seen significant local disease."

Plenty of vaccine is available in Burlington County, said Jennifer Horner, an epidemiologist in the county health department. "We have historically seen the greatest interest in getting vaccinated when there is either a perceived shortage of vaccine or the flu itself is perceived as especially dangerous."

Several local health officials said, however, that their experiences did not necessarily mean that people are not getting vaccinated. The vast majority go to doctors' offices for immunizations. And shipments to pharmacies and supermarkets went out unusually early this year.

This is also the first year that the federal government has recommended that every American over 6 months of age be immunized.

Another change: The new health bill requires all insurance policies written after Sept. 23 to fully cover routine vaccinations, with no copayment.

To find a flu clinic, enter "Find a flu shot" in any search engine. County health departments also provide details online and by phone.