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Specter's success may depend on Philadelphia

Last week, Sen. Arlen Specter's campaign bought thousands of ad minutes on Philadelphia black-oriented radio stations to air a clip of President Obama's praising him.

Democratic strategists say Philadelphia is Sen. Arlen Specter's bulwark against his surging opponent, Rep. Joe Sestak (right). (File photos)
Democratic strategists say Philadelphia is Sen. Arlen Specter's bulwark against his surging opponent, Rep. Joe Sestak (right). (File photos)Read more

Last week, Sen. Arlen Specter's campaign bought thousands of ad minutes on Philadelphia black-oriented radio stations to air a clip of President Obama's praising him.

And Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins made robo-calls to city Democratic voters saying that Specter has "proven he's on our team" by supporting the economic-stimulus and health-care overhaul.

For Specter, surviving the Democratic Senate primary against Rep. Joe Sestak may well come down to his hometown, the city that launched his long political career in 1965, when he was elected district attorney - as a Republican.

Specter has consistently enjoyed a wider margin of support in Philadelphia than in other regions of the state in primary polls. Democratic strategists say the city is Specter's bulwark against his surging opponent.

"It's the only region in the entire state where he holds a substantial advantage," said consultant Ken Snyder, who is advising the gubernatorial campaign of State Sen. Anthony Hardy Williams. "Sen. Specter's best hope is to wage a furious and successful battle in Philadelphia to not only increase his margin but boost turnout."

Williams, of West Philadelphia, clearly would benefit from a big city vote himself, but Snyder is not simply spinning. Several strategists and pollsters echo his analysis, as does Sestak.

"Philadelphia is critical, absolutely," Sestak said Saturday before a rally at Bardascino Park in the city's Bella Vista section, acknowledging the need to cut into Specter's city base. "This has been his turf for years. He knows a lot of the establishment here."

In a Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday that showed Specter's longtime lead narrowing statewide, the city was his strongest region. A geographical breakdown found Specter leading Sestak 59 percent to 42 percent in Philadelphia. Specter also led in northwestern Pennsylvania, but the two were neck and neck in the northeast region around Scranton; in southwestern Pennsylvania; in Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh; and in the suburban counties outside Philadelphia.

Quinnipiac's survey was based on telephone interviews of 930 likely Democratic primary voters from April 28 to May 2, with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. Regional breakdowns have higher margins of error because the samples are smaller, but they give a rough road map of what's going on.

In this race, internal polls for other Democratic statewide campaigns show a bigger Philadelphia advantage for Specter.

Pennsylvania's longest-serving senator, Specter is running for reelection as a Democrat for the first time after nearly 30 years on the Republican side of the aisle. Sestak, a second-term U.S. House member from Delaware County, is challenging him.

Specter has formidable assets in the battle for Philadelphia. Obama embraces him, as does Gov. Rendell, the former mayor who remains hugely popular throughout the metropolitan area. He has the support of the city Democratic organization - led by U.S. Rep. Bob Brady - so Specter's name will appear on the sample ballots that ward leaders hand out, and he will benefit from turnout operations.

Some analysts say they think Williams' candidacy could also help Specter, bringing out black voters excited to back an African American candidate for governor. Specter has a big reservoir of support among black Democrats, according to polls. Specter supporters are urging the White House to send Obama to campaign for him before the May 18 vote; the president is hugely popular in Southeastern Pennsylvania, though association with the administration could be a liability to Specter in many parts of the state in a general election.

"I think Arlen needs a big win in Philly, and I'm not convinced the motivation for turnout is there," said Terry Madonna of Franklin and Marshall College, the most experienced independent pollster of state politics. "The city's turnout in primaries is not good in recent years in midterm elections, so Brady needs to deliver, and we will see about that."

In last fall's appellate court elections, just 11 percent of Philadelphia's eligible voters went to the polls, compared with 21 percent statewide.

A competitive Senate race and a contest for governor should bring out more voters than the typically sleepy judicial races, but turnout always drops in midterm elections. Democrats are imperiled around the nation because voters who surged to elect Obama in 2008 are less enthusiastic this year, polls show.

Black voters make up about 19 percent of the Pennsylvania Democratic electorate in a typical primary, and 60 percent of the statewide African American vote is concentrated in Philadelphia.

Specter has deep ties with black leaders, going back to his tenure as district attorney and his early support for the civil rights movement. He also won the endorsement of the influential Black Clergy of Philadelphia and Vicinity. Sestak has been visiting black churches in the city every Sunday for a year, and he has support in pockets of the city from the liberal group Philly for Change.

Jonathan Oriole, who has been canvassing hard for Sestak in his South Philadelphia neighborhood and was at the Saturday rally, said he has met Democratic committee people who are not on board for Specter.

"The ones I talk to say, 'Shh, don't tell,' and say they're for Sestak," said Oriole, 34.

But Eighth Ward Democratic leader Stephanie Singer said only a handful of the 30 committee people in the liberal Center City bastion have bucked the ward's overwhelming endorsement of Specter.

Some people oppose Specter because of votes in his Republican past, she said, while others admire the money he has brought to the city as a senator. Most of all, "we really want to win against [Republican Pat] Toomey, and there's a consensus that Specter is more electable in the fall," Singer said.

And to get there, some say, he needs to deploy Rendell in the Philadelphia market.

"The momentum is clearly with Sestak. And it's getting late," said Democratic strategist Daniel F. McElhatton, "but we haven't yet seen the commercial with Ed Rendell speaking directly to the camera about how much Specter has done for the state - maybe that can save him."