Democrats campaign from the middle at midterm

In this midterm election of discontent, many Democrats in competitive House districts are finding that the middle of the road is a good place to be.

They can cite their votes against President Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) as proof that they are independent thinkers, backed up by two nonpartisan studies of important 2009 roll calls.

Five Democratic representatives in Pennsylvania and one in New Jersey - all facing tough reelection challenges - had much higher rates of dissent from the party line than their colleagues, according to the National Journal and the Congressional Quarterly.

A president's party almost always suffers some losses in midterm congressional elections, and political analysts say that 2010 could be a bloodbath for Democrats because of voter frustration with high unemployment and deficit spending.

Rep. John Adler, the Democrat representing New Jersey's Third District, has to hope that his moderate voting record will help him survive.

"I'm happy to vote for either party when it's the right thing to do," Adler said in an interview. "I need to vote my conscience."

He was just two places away from dead center among House Democrats on the National Journal ideological rating scale issued Friday, covering votes in the first 11 months of Obama's presidency. Adler voted the liberal position 50.5 percent of the time and took a conservative stance 49.5 percent of the time.

Congressional Quarterly, in its January report, noted that Adler voted against the president 26.1 percent of the time in 2009. That was more than Rep. Parker Griffith of Alabama, who changed his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican in December.

Adler opposed the House health-care overhaul bill, saying it did not do enough to control costs, and voted "no" on releasing $350 billion from the Troubled Asset Relief Program to bolster financial institutions.

Adler, a freshman elected in the Obama landslide of 2008, represents a traditionally Republican district in Burlington, Camden, and Ocean Counties. GOP leaders are coalescing around former Eagles lineman Jon Runyon to challenge Adler.

The five vulnerable Pennsylvania Democrats with the centrist records are Reps. Chris Carney, Tim Holden, Patrick Murphy, Jason Altmire, and Kathy Dahlkemper.

Carney, of northeastern Pennsylvania, was rated the 11th most centrist member of the House by the National Journal. Overall, his votes were more liberal than 47.8 percent of his colleagues, and more conservative than 52.2 percent of his colleagues.

"My district understands that I'm a conservative Democrat," said Carney, a Naval Reserve officer and political scientist. "I think it's much better to be a bridge when we have these wide chasms."

He voted against the "cap and trade" energy bill to combat global warming because it did not include incentives for natural gas production, important to his district north of Scranton. Carney also voted against bailout legislation three times and recently helped enact pay-as-you-go budget rules to help bring down the deficit. Those rules require lawmakers to make an equal cut for every new dollar in spending.

On fiscal issues, Carney was the most conservative of Pennsylvania's House Democrats, with a 51 percent National Journal rating on spending. In the 2008 presidential election, Republican John McCain carried Carney's 10th District with 54 percent of the vote. Late last year, in fact, GOP leaders approached Carney about switching parties; he declined.

Experts project that Democrats could lose as many as 35 seats in the Nov. 2 election based on current trends. Republicans need to flip 40 seats to take control of the House.

Democrats in more conservative districts can survive national waves if they match up with the voters' values, said Daren Berringer. He has advised Holden, a fiscally conservative "Blue Dog" Democrat who represents the 17th District in central Pennsylvania.

"Voters there are fiscally conservative people who appreciate hard work," Berringer said.

Holden's votes were also close to the middle of the House, according to the National Journal: 48.8 percent liberal and 51.2 percent conservative. He opposed the health-care overhaul legislation and the "cap and trade" energy bill.

The question is whether local ties and a congruent voting record are enough to ensure survival.

"Democratic incumbents would love for people to vote based on voting records and local issues, but some are going to get swept out because of the larger dissatisfaction with what's going on in Washington and the Democratic Party that controls it," said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report.

"Centrists can get swept out of office in wave elections, because they often represent competitive districts that require support from the other party - and that just isn't there when people are upset," Gonzales said.

Murphy, the "Blue Dog" Democrat representing Bucks County's Eighth District, voted against Obama's position 10 percent of the time in the CQ study. Holden, by contrast, bucked the president on 11 percent of votes.

Republican former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, whom Murphy beat in 2006, is aiming for a rematch this year. Murphy has been highlighting differences with his Democratic Party over spending.

Last week, Murphy teamed with Rep. Scott Garrett (R., N.J.) to introduce a bill abolishing the Market Access Program, which was designed to help U.S. agriculture develop markets overseas but has been derided by critics as corporate welfare.

"The vast majority of the money goes to large multinational corporations and trade associations that don't need taxpayer assistance," Murphy said.

He vowed to partner with Garrett to root out more waste. "We're going to be like a bulldog on a bone," Murphy said.