Herb Taylor says it's "too early to tell" what effect the stimulus is having.

A top official and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Taylor said growth could begin by the end of September. That makes him a bit more optimistic than Romer, who predicts it will happen by year's end.

Job growth typically lags the end of a recession.

"That's going to happen later," Taylor said.

Obama has said the stimulus will generate an additional 600,000 jobs over the next three months. Part of that will come from summer jobs for 125,000 youths.

Still, layoffs will likely outpace hires for some time.

Many conservatives, including Republicans in Congress, doubt that the stimulus is having much impact.

"We've already lost more jobs than the White House predicted would have occurred even if the stimulus had not passed," said Brian Riehl, a senior budget analyst at the Heritage Foundation in Washington. "So it's failing to provide jobs by the White House's own criteria."

Tax cuts comprise $288 billion of the $787 billion in the program.

A tax credit of up to $1,500 for energy-saving home improvements is having an impact, said Michael McGee, of the Home Builders Association of Chester and Delaware Counties.

He said the credit might be spurring homeowners who were thinking of putting in solar panels or insulation to do so now, rather than put it off. He himself installed a new door, and his brother replaced most of his windows.

"But it's not a stampede," he said.

On the spending side, some agencies that do work for low-income people, such as home weatherization, expected funding sooner.

Pennsylvania will get $253 million and New Jersey $119 million in an expansion of the weatherization program. But it looks as if work funds won't be available until fall, as the heating season starts.

Liz Robinson, executive director of the Energy Coordinating Agency of Philadelphia, said of the funding: "I expected it to be out by now. It is slow. Part of it has been that the feds have not been as clear in their guidelines to the states as they might have been. . . . The time frame was probably not realistic."

But G. Edward DeSeve, deputy director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, said stimulus programs could go no faster and still be carefully managed.

"It's like a runner in a long-distance race," he said. "The worst thing you can do is run the first part of the race too fast. . . . You have to be sure you have a pace you're comfortable with."

Unemployment drops

On Wednesday, the government reported that, for the first time since January, the number of people on unemployment rolls had fallen. Stocks rallied on the news.

But the report counted only people who have been collecting benefits for six months. It did not count those such as Donahue who long ago passed that threshold and are on extended benefits under a federal emergency program.