What Obama must do in Denver

DENVER - One of the most intense two weeks in modern political history begins today as Democrats arrive here to nominate Sen. Barack Obama as their candidate for president.

Not since 1916 have the two major parties met back to back, as they are doing this year; the Republicans will assemble next week in St. Paul, Minn., to bestow their nomination on Sen. John McCain.

And never before have both conventions been held so close to Election Day.

In an age when nominations are won and lost in the primaries, political conventions have become little more than carefully staged, nationally televised infomercials designed to showcase the candidate, stir the faithful, and woo the undecided.

That said, Obama has a lot he'd like to accomplish during four days in Denver starting tomorrow.

His overriding goal is to reinvigorate a campaign that has stalled in the last month - losing some of its sense of being special - and boost a polling lead that has dwindled to almost nothing.

An ideal convention for Obama, who still benefits from a national political landscape that favors the Democrats, would accomplish the following, analysts say:

Cast his unusual life story as a classic American tale of success, built on the familiar elements of merit, hard work and achievement.

Make undecided voters more comfortable with a man who has limited foreign-policy experience and only four years on the national stage, starting with his breakthrough speech at the last convention.

Complete the unification of a party that split almost precisely in half - with a majority of Democratic women on the other side - during his long, tough nomination fight with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Portray a McCain presidency, despite the Arizonan's reputation as a maverick, as four more years of George W. Bush, particularly when it comes to economics.

Address the concerns among some party leaders that there isn't much that drives Obama beyond vague notions of change and hope, and that he's having trouble making a visceral connection with blue-collar voters.

In his campaign appearances and television commercials, the Illinois senator has begun trying to develop more of a traditional, meat-and-potatoes economic message.

He has sought to depict McCain as a politician out of touch with the woes of struggling families - to which the Arizonan contributed by not knowing how many homes he and his wife own - and himself as a populist who understands their fears and would cut their taxes.

Obama said last week that he wanted voters to look at him and say, "This is somebody who's going to fight for me." A new campaign ad, now airing in Philadelphia, ends with the words: "Barack Obama: The middle class first."

Throughout the convention, the trick for the Obama team will be to avoid unwanted drama without putting the country to sleep.

Any hint of drama is likely to come courtesy of the Clintons, the former president and the current senator, whose relationships with Obama remain a subject of intense interest.

On Wednesday night, in a move intended to heal wounds rather than reopen them, Hillary Clinton's name will be put in nomination. A roll call will then proceed.

How it all plays out - and how the die-hard supporters of the most successful female presidential candidate in history react - will determine the degree to which the event provides the "catharsis" leading to unity that Clinton says she wants.

Another element of uncertainty involves Obama's acceptance speech, set for Thursday night at Invesco Field at Mile High, the football stadium where the NFL's Denver Broncos play.

While the weather could gum up the works, the forecast is for fair skies. More important, delivering the speech before 75,000 screaming fans could feed into the Republican theme, developed after Obama's massive rally in Berlin last month, that the man is more celebrity than leader.

If all goes well, the week should produce a "bounce" in the polls for Obama. But a study by the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank, shows that the bounces produced by recent conventions were modest and short.

In 2000, for instance, the last election without an incumbent, Bush got an 8-percentage-point boost from the Republican convention in Philadelphia. But two weeks later, Al Gore got the 8 points back after his gathering in Los Angeles.

What bounces there will be in 2008, with the conventions right on top of each other, remain to be seen. In any event, McCain appears ready to try to steal some of Obama's thunder by naming his running mate as early as Friday, the day after Obama's big speech.

When the Democrats get down to business tomorrow night, the focus will be squarely on Obama himself, even though he won't get to town until midweek. The featured speaker is his wife, Michelle, to be preceded by his half-sister and his brother-in-law.

On Tuesday, Hillary Clinton will occupy the spotlight. Wednesday's program includes former President Bill Clinton and the acceptance speech by the vice presidential nominee, Delaware Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr.

The finale on Thursday will be Obama's acceptance speech, which comes, remarkably, on the anniversary of the "I Have a Dream" speech of the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.

Pennsylvania, which has seen more television commercials thus far than any other state, will get a lot of attention at the convention as well.

The roster of speakers includes Rep. Patrick Murphy of Bucks County, the first Iraq war veteran to be elected to the House; Gov. Rendell, one of Clinton's leading supporters in the nominating fight; and Sen. Bob Casey, an antiabortion politician whose antiabortion father, the former governor, wanted to give a speech about his position at the 1992 convention but was kept off the podium.

Denver has hosted a national political convention only once before, precisely 100 years ago, when the Democrats came to town to nominate William Jennings Bryan for the third time. He lost the election, as he had the previous two.

The Twin Cities have gone even longer without a convention; the Republicans met in Minneapolis in 1892, nominating Benjamin Harrison. Despite being the incumbent, Harrison lost, too.

This time around, one of them is pretty much guaranteed to pick a winner. What happens the next two weeks will help determine which one.