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Pennsylvania House control at stake Tuesday

HARRISBURG - One slim seat separates those who have the power from those who do not, those who control the flow of key Pennsylvania legislation from those who do not.

HARRISBURG - One slim seat separates those who have the power from those who do not, those who control the flow of key Pennsylvania legislation from those who do not.

Voters across the state, in 203 districts, will decide Tuesday whether Democrats will keep or expand their 102-101 edge in the state House of Representatives or whether the GOP will return to power.

Analysts say unusual political currents this year make forecasting the battle all but impossible.

On the surface, the currents appear to be breaking the Democrats' way.

The party has registered hundreds of thousands of new voters, turning traditional GOP strongholds blue. And at the top of the ticket, Barack Obama leads all state polls by heavy margins - which Democrats hope will lift the rest of the ballot.

Republicans, however, quickly dismiss such notions.

They argue that legislative races are won and lost locally, in districts often decided by a couple of hundred votes.

And they have on their side a scandal in which a dozen current and former House Democratic insiders were charged with using millions in government money on efforts to elect members of their party two years ago.

The probe by the state attorney general, known as Bonusgate, is continuing, but no Republicans have been charged.

"You have two forces about to collide, and we will see which one is stronger," said Christopher Borick, a politics professor and pollster at Muhlenberg College, adding that this much is certain: "You have all the makings of a long night on election night to see what finally happens."

Officials who run the campaign arms for Republicans and Democrats in the House agree that the battle for control comes down to a geographic calculus: Democrats need to pick up seats in the Philadelphia region, most notably in its suburban counties, while minimizing losses in more conservative areas.

Republicans need to do the opposite: Hold on to seats in the southeast and make inroads out west.

The battle will be decided by which party does better in claiming 22 scattered seats being vacated by retiring representatives.

Democrats believe they have a great chance to win five seats in the Philadelphia region held by retiring Republicans: Reps. George Kenney of Philadelphia, Art Hershey and Carole Rubley of Chester County, David Steil of Bucks County, and Ron Raymond of Delaware County.

"The past two years of Democratic control of the House, after a dozen years of stagnant Republican rule, have shown Pennsylvanians that progress is possible," said Rep. Todd Eachus of Hazleton, who heads the House Democratic Campaign Committee.

The GOP also sees local opportunities for pickups, believing two freshman Democrats - Reps. Chris King of Bucks County and Rick Taylor of Montgomery County - are vulnerable.

But they hope their biggest victory comes in the state's southwesternmost district, represented by Bill DeWeese, the top House Democrat.

DeWeese faces Greg Hopkins, a former arena football player whom he narrowly defeated two years ago. But this time, he is also running against Bonusgate.

DeWeese ran the caucus when large government bonuses were given to those who worked on campaigns. He has not been charged, and has said repeatedly that he had no involvement in the matter.

But Republican officials believe voters will hold him and other Democrats accountable for Bonusgate.

"In terms of control of the state House, it really comes down to Bonusgate vs. Obama's popularity," said Al Bowman, a spokesman for the House Republican Campaign Committee.

"All politics are still local, and while Barrack is claiming he will usher in a new day as president, local state House Democrats are still being chased by the ghosts of their own corruption and inaction."

As for Obama's popularity in the state, Gov. Rendell said last week that he hoped to maximize the possibility of a coattail effect.

Rendell said he was helping to fund last-minute mass mailings and phone banks to remind Democrats, particularly the 700,000 newly registered ones, not to forget legislative races.

"There are so many people wildly enthusiastic about Sen. Obama's candidacy I am worried they go in and press one button and go out," said Rendell, who will have a far tougher time seeing his policies put in place in the final two years of his administration if the GOP reclaims the House.

In the Senate, half the 50 seats are on the ballot, and except for the most optimistic Democrats, few believe the party can erase the GOP's 29-21 edge.