Talk about political climate change.

A year after President Obama won the White House, Republican victories Tuesday in New Jersey and Virginia carried warnings for Democrats heading into the 2010 midterm elections, as voters unsettled by the economy struck at the status quo in both states.

Neither election for governor shaped up as a direct referendum on Obama's presidency, but exit polls showed that the independent voters instrumental in returning Democrats to power in the 2006 and 2008 elections swung to the Republicans on Tuesday.

On the other hand, the young, African American, and first-time voters central to Obama's coalition largely failed to turn out to help the Democrats he campaigned for: Gov. Corzine in New Jersey and State Sen. Creigh Deeds in Virginia.

To be sure, local issues influenced the outcomes, with Republican Christopher J. Christie buoyed by suburban angst at New Jersey's notoriously high property taxes, and Virginia Republican Robert F. McDonnell benefiting from his opponent's unfamiliarity with the transportation needs in the state's suburban northern counties.

Since Democrats had been in power in both New Jersey and Virginia for eight years, the party bore the brunt of voter frustration.

"It might make more sense to look at this is a continuation of 2008, of the desire for change," said GOP media consultant Chris Mottola, who created ads supporting Christie for the Republican Governors Association. "People said, 'I don't want what I've had.' "

Saul Shorr, a national Democratic consultant based in Philadelphia, agreed. "Most of all, it's a rejection of the status quo," he said. "There's a lot of churning out there."

Obama had visited New Jersey three times, and Democrats had targeted the new voters who surged to support him last year, christening their get-out-the-vote effort "Yes We Can 2.0." But voter turnout was disappointing, especially in cities like Newark and Camden, where Corzine needed to stir enthusiasm.

Six of 10 New Jersey voters interviewed leaving polling places said Obama did not factor into their decision on the state race. Even among the 57 percent of the voters interviewed who said they approved of Obama's performance, 20 percent pulled the lever for Christie - this year's change candidate.

"Republicans didn't come out in droves because of President Obama," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. "By the same token, Obama wasn't a good-enough draw to bring out Democrats who weren't happy with the job Jon Corzine had done."

Republican leaders were ecstatic, with national chairman Michael Steele saying the GOP was a "transcendent party" on the march again. But White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said the races turned on "local issues that did not involve the president."

Republican strategist Charles W. Dunn said Obama and congressional Democrats would have to recalibrate to assuage concerns with some of the administration's policies.

"Why did you spend so much time and money campaigning there if it had no meaning?" said Dunn, dean of the Robertson School of Government at Regent University in Virginia Beach, Va. "Clearly much of the public is not buying into what the president is doing."

Over the last several months, polls have found independent voters increasingly wary of Obama's efforts to overhaul health care and worried about the levels of federal spending and deficits.

In New Jersey, Christie won independent voters by 30 percentage points - 60 percent to 30 percent - after Obama carried the bloc with 51 percent last year. In Virginia, McDonnell won independents by 33 points - 66 percent to 33 percent - after Obama narrowly won them last year, 49 percent to 48 percent.

Republicans were more energized than they had been in years, and the success in Virginia and New Jersey will help the party raise money, recruit candidates, and fire up the base for the midterms.

But there was a sour note as well for the GOP: the loss of a House seat in Upstate New York that had been in party hands since the Civil War, amid ideological warfare between conservative activists and party establishment figures. Conservatives pushed the GOP nominee, a liberal assemblywoman, out of the race and rallied around Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. The Democrat, Bill Owens, won.

Tuesday marked the ninth consecutive time - since 1977 - that the party that won the White House lost the Virginia governor's mansion the next year. It was the sixth consecutive time - since 1989 - that the party controlling the White House lost the New Jersey governor's race.

Still, these off-year elections are not always good predictors of what will happen in the broader races held across the nation in even-numbered years for federal and state offices.

Consider: In the last 20 years, the same party swept both off-year gubernatorial elections five times. Three times, the winning party gained in the following year's congressional elections. It lost ground twice.

In 1993, for instance, Republican Christie Todd Whitman was elected governor in New Jersey and Republican George Allen in Virginia. The next year, Republicans took control of the House for the first time in a generation and also captured the Senate.

In 2001, Democrats Jim McGreevey in New Jersey and Mark Warner in Virginia won. But the next year, it was the other party - the GOP - that gained seats in both the House and the Senate.

Contact staff writer Thomas Fitzgerald at 215-854-2718 or tfitzgerald@phillynews.com.

Inquirer staff writer Jonathan Tamari contributed to this article.