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Seventh District up for grabs if Sestak leaves

Rep. Joe Sestak is only the second Democrat since the Civil War to represent Delaware County in the U.S. House, so his expected decision to vacate the seat to challenge Sen. Arlen Specter in next year's primary has party leaders fearing the loss of hard-won territory.

Rep. Joe Sestak is only the second Democrat since the Civil War to represent Delaware County in the U.S. House, so his expected decision to vacate the seat to challenge Sen. Arlen Specter in next year's primary has party leaders fearing the loss of hard-won territory.

Voting trends have shown the Seventh Congressional District leaning Democratic blue in presidential and statewide races, but pollsters and political strategists caution that holding on to it is no sure thing.

After all, Republicans still have the voter-registration edge in the district, and the Delaware County GOP machine, while diminished from its old "War Board" days, remains potent in local races. In addition, Sestak's initial victory in 2006 got a lift from the disclosure of an FBI investigation into whether 10-term incumbent Republican Curt Weldon used his office to aid a firm owned by his daughter and a friend.

Gov. Rendell and other Specter supporters argue that Sestak should stay put, lest history repeat itself. The last Democratic congressman from the district, Bob Edgar, passed up a reelection bid to run against then-Republican Specter in the 1986 general election and lost.

"I'd hate to put that Delco seat at risk," said prominent Democratic fund-raiser Mark Aronchick, who is backing Specter for the Senate. "Joe Sestak is an independent force. I don't know that anybody can just step in."

Sestak has all but announced he will take on Specter, who became a Democrat in April after 29 years as a moderate Republican senator. Sestak questions how reliable Specter will be on Democratic priorities, and says he is angry that President Obama and other leading Democrats have "anointed" Specter.

Potential successors are lining up on both sides of the aisle. Democratic State Rep. Bryan Lentz has said he planned to run if the seat was open. Former federal prosecutor Craig Williams, who lost to Sestak last year, and Montgomery County businessman Steven Welch are mentioned as possible Republican candidates.

GOP leaders have urged Patrick Meehan, the popular former U.S. attorney and a Delaware County native, to run for Congress, but he has said he is sticking for now with his bid for governor.

"I think we'd have a wonderful shot of winning that seat back - we'd be favored," said John McNichol, a Republican leader in the county who considers Sestak's 2006 election a fluke.

"It was a byproduct of Curt Weldon's difficulties," McNichol said. "We were seven points up before they had those raids. We went seven points down in three days, a 14-point switch. So that's what beat him."

Sestak disagrees that the seat is ripe for Republicans' taking, noting that his campaign spent conservatively - holding more than $3 million in reserve - and he still won last fall.

"I didn't spend one dime last election, not one dime, on TV or radio media," Sestak said yesterday. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also considers his seat "very safe," he said.

The Seventh District covers most of Delaware County, with pieces of Chester and Montgomery Counties thrown in. It has growing minority communities in the working-class inner-ring suburbs, and a high proportion of educated affluent voters, two blocs that have favored the Democrats in recent elections.

Its voters supported Democrats Al Gore, John Kerry, and Obama in the last three presidential races, twice gave overwhelming majorities to Rendell, and supported Democrat Bob Casey over Republican Sen. Rick Santorum in 2006. In 2004, the district went for Specter, then still a Republican.

"Unless the Republicans get a strong candidate who can swim against the current, you'd have to say the Democrats would start off with an advantage," said nonpartisan Washington political analyst Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Report.

"But whether it's a narrow or substantial advantage depends on the two candidates, how the president is perceived, and the larger mood in the nation," Rothenberg said. Historically, the president's party often loses ground in midterm congressional elections as voters express their frustrations and disappointments.

Because of the prevailing trends and the ground-level organizations beefed up in the last couple of years for Sestak's and Obama's campaigns, local Democrats are optimistic about winning the House seat if there is an opening. Party strategists in Washington also consider the political terrain favorable.

"I don't think it will be as difficult as it might have been," Democratic County Chairman Cliff Wilson said. "I think the gains we've made are such that Democrats can win with the right campaign."

In the 2006 election - which turned on ethical lapses by some House Republicans, giving Democrats control of the chamber - Sestak stressed "accountability." Once in office, he solidified his hold on the district with an intense constituent-service operation and aggressive outreach.

Edgar, who now heads the nonprofit group Common Cause, said the election of 2006 resembled 1974, when he was elected in the wake of Watergate; both featured unpopular presidents, wars, and corruption issues. He expects that the trends favoring Democrats in the district will continue but cautions that holding the seat won't be easy.

"If the Democrats run a dud, the Republicans will win," Edgar said. "If you don't have that energizing candidate and you simply have the party Democrats and liberals, then the Republicans win in Delaware County."