Colleges unsure of enrollment picture

With the critical May 1 decision date approaching, private college admissions officials locally and nationally are calling this year one of the most uncertain, tension-filled seasons in decades.

Private liberal arts colleges lagging in the percentage of students who have accepted invitations to attend are wondering whether they will have to dig deeper into their wait lists and offer even more aid to get their freshman classes.

Even schools that are running the same as or ahead of last year remain uncertain whether the numbers will hold next Friday - and whether those who commit actually will show up in the fall, given the economic uncertainty.

The picture, however, is different at state schools and community colleges, generally less costly alternatives. They continue to enroll students in greater numbers, in some cases setting records.

"This is the toughest year I've seen," said Robert Massa, Dickinson College's vice president for enrollment and college relations, who has been in the business 35 years and spoke about the private-school admissions scene generally. "The price has never been higher and the economy's never been worse."

He said colleagues he had spoken with at similar institutions generally were down 5 to 10 percent in the number of students who had submitted deposits. Dickinson is down 5.9 percent.

This admissions season unfolds as a peak number of high school students graduate this year and as many apply to more colleges than ever.

David Hawkins, director of public policy and research at the National Association for College Admission Counseling, said it was the most nerve-charged environment in decades.

Officials caution that they won't know exactly how tough the season has been until after May 1, the date that many schools require students to declare they will attend and submit a deposit.

Schools are especially sensitive about the percentage of students who accept their offer - known as yield - because it can figure in the quality of their freshman class.

And while state schools are up in deposits, some officials believe that some students are "double depositing" more than before as a safety measure.

Signs of money woes, however, are clear. Requests for financial aid are up, and college officials say they are getting more calls from antsy parents wrestling with the financial decision of college: Can they afford to plan four years ahead in such an unstable economy in which job losses are mounting?

"People are worried about what happens if," said George Walter, associate dean of enrollment management at Villanova University.

The number of students who have submitted deposits to be among the school's 1,630 new freshmen is about even with last year, Walter said.

Villanova has increased its financial-aid budget and has assured families it will reevaluate needs if circumstances change, he said.

Swarthmore College, which is running a bit ahead in students who have submitted deposits, has heard from more families who are weighing merit offers from less costly state institutions against Swarthmore, where the price tag before aid is nearly $50,000 annually.

Jim Bock, dean of admissions and financial aid, said he also had gotten more requests from undecided families asking to extend the decision deadline - which the school is reluctant to do unless there is some compelling unknown.

"My sense is that there's going to be a lot of dinner conversations on Thursday evening with whiteboards," he said.

Bracing for the more difficult year, many colleges - including Swarthmore, Villanova, the University of Pennsylvania and Dickinson - have accepted more students than they did in the past.

Some schools, including Bryn Mawr College, Dickinson and Swarthmore, also have broadened their wait lists in case the need to go deeper arises.

Other schools, including Ursinus College, Bryn Mawr and Holy Family University, report slower deposit rates.

"Right now, we are running behind last year but are hoping things will pick up in the next week or so," said Lauren A. Campbell, director of undergraduate admissions at Holy Family.

Bryn Mawr, a women's college, is behind despite an extra touch this year in which it mailed personalized welcoming videos to each of its 1,052 accepted students.

But the school had a strong turnout last weekend at its orientation program for admitted students, said Jennifer Rikard, dean of admissions and financial aid.

"I really do think people are waiting until the last minute, more so than in the past," she said, citing the economy as the reason. "It's just the most unpredictable year."

She said requests for financial aid were up about 20 percent, an unusual jump for one year.

Ursinus also reports more requests for review of financial-aid needs.

"People are talking about losing 50 percent of their students' savings account [for college], or they've lost their jobs, or they're afraid of losing their jobs. All these themes we're seeing in the national news are playing themselves out in very explicit detail in these review letters we're reading," said Rick DiFeliciantonio, vice president for enrollment.

The college is trying to help families with more money, he said.

"Obviously, there are limits to that," he said, asserting that about 10 to 15 percent of admitted students seemed to be struggling.

Other private schools, including La Salle University and Chestnut Hill College, say they are running ahead of last year. Chestnut Hill, which is in a growth spurt, admitted 700 more students than in the past and is dramatically ahead in deposits as well.

And at West Chester University, as seems to be the trend at state and state-related schools, a higher percentage of students already has submitted deposits and committed to attending.

Larry Walsh, senior associate director of admissions, said 32 percent of the students offered admission had submitted and agreed to attend, up from 28 percent the same time last year.

West Chester, like most state schools, has rolling admissions and is not tied to the May 1 date.

State-related Temple University, which yesterday approved a record-setting boost in financial aid and its smallest tuition increase in 13 years, is 6 percent ahead of last year in students who have submitted deposits.

The University of Delaware, a state school, is 15 percent ahead.

Montgomery County Community College, meanwhile, has seen a 15.6 percent increase in enrollment for the fall, its largest ever.

"We'll be adding sections of courses on weekends and late afternoons," said Kathrine Swanson, vice president for enrollment management. "We won't have down times like we had before."