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The Point: Diplomacy still best in dealing with Iran

An attack would unite its people under a regime now pressured.

Two days after Iranian students overran the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, taking 66 Americans hostage 30 years ago this month, Pentagon brass met in a secret briefing room called "The Tank" to consider rescue options.

Major Lewis H. "Bucky" Burruss, operations officer for the Army's newly formed counterterrorism unit, Delta Force, outlined an improvised mission that went like this: Parachute a small force to a highway just east of Tehran that would hijack trucks right off the road, drive them into the city, attack the embassy compound and free the hostages, and then fight its way 400 miles to the Turkish border. It was tantamount to a suicide mission, for both the rescuers and the American hostages.

"Obviously," said Burruss, "we don't want to do this."

But this was the best the U.S. military could offer President Jimmy Carter on short notice. In the year and month that followed, many Americans were dismayed by Carter's seeming helplessness. How could the world's premiere superpower be trapped in a standoff with a scruffy band of Islamist college students?

Yet Carter had no military option short of escalating the standoff and almost certainly getting the hostages killed. America was superbly equipped in 1979 to rain missiles on an enemy, and to fight huge tank battles in Eastern Europe, but that was about it. When Carter warned Iran of a swift and harsh response if any hostages were harmed, he convened his generals at Camp David to explore his options if it came to that. He got a roomful of shrugs. After Vietnam, the cupboard had been stripped bare. According to James Kitfield's Prodigal Soldiers, the Army chief of staff, Gen. Edward "Shy" Meyer, told the president, "Basically what we have is a hollow Army."

Campaigning against Carter in 1980, Ronald Reagan lost no opportunity to portray his opponent as a timid leader, and to this day, critics of the former president argue that his biggest mistake was not hitting Iran hard and fast. Carter's perceived weakness, aggravated by the abject failure of a Delta rescue attempt he authorized six months later (only slightly less preposterous), is the biggest reason he lost his bid for a second term.

There is a thriving strain of political argument in American life that rests on an unrealistic belief in what force can accomplish. It played a big role in derailing Carter, and it will play a louder role in the coming months if Iran's defiance of nuclear nonproliferation agreements stiffens.

Without a doubt, the U.S. Army and military is "hollow" no more. It and the other branches may be overextended and stressed fighting two wars, but President Obama enjoys far better options than Carter did. If the choice is between striking Iran or letting it go nuclear, the president has a wide range of military tools.

But what can force accomplish against Iran's nuclear program? There is little doubt that we could set it back, maybe for years. But that would not eliminate the threat, and would almost certainly stiffen Iran's resolve to proceed. A successful strike would at best buy time, and at great cost.

Apart from certain retaliatory strikes against American forces in the region, against Israel, and within the United States by Iranian agents and its Hezbollah allies, a military strike would likely torpedo the courageous reform effort under way inside Iran. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's summer electoral victory is widely regarded by his countrymen as fraudulent. Resistance there faces a tough crackdown but appears to be stubborn.

On the political front, time works in our favor. The mullahs have backed themselves into a corner. The harsher the repression, the more the regime discredits itself. The revolution in 1979 was not strictly or even fundamentally Islamist; it was a movement against authoritarianism. There remains in Iran a strong cultural yearning for freedom.

An American or Israeli military strike would solve the hard-liners' dilemma. It would accomplish what Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei cannot. Just as a foreign attack on the United States instantly unites Americans of every political stripe against a common enemy, an attack on Iran would unify and rally that nation.

In the end, diplomacy, no matter how distasteful, proved the only way for Carter to end the crisis and bring the American hostages home safely. It is still the best option for dealing with Iran today. Obama is off to a good start. His friendly rhetoric and willingness to negotiate have significantly upped pressure on the mullah-ocracy. It has severely undercut its tired efforts to portray Uncle Sam as a boogeyman - indeed, Iranian reformers protesting in the streets have been heard chanting for Obama's help. The agreement reached with Iran's nuclear negotiators in October has placed Ahmadinejad in the curious position of supporting a compromise with the Great Satan over the objections of his own hard-line allies.

If that effort fails, the diplomatic approach has strengthened America's chances of imposing punitive economic sanctions. There is already broad support from Western democracies, and last week Russia indicated that it may join such an effort.

Obama was criticized in his campaign for his willingness to negotiate with Iran, even by his own Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, who was then opposing him for the Democratic nomination. But the point of talking was never founded on a belief that we could sweet-talk the mullahs of Qom. The point was to make Iran's malice and defiance more plain, in order to secure broad support for actions short of war.

It is good to be strong, but it is better to be smart.


Mark Bowden is a journalist and author, most recently of "The Best Game Ever." E-mail him at mbowden@phillynews.com.

Comments   
Posted 03:26 AM, 11/15/2009
Beli Sharifi
An exceedingly naive article. We Iranians are really sick of how you Americans are so ignorant to the mandate of the regime in Tehran and how you sell us out in order to score diplomatic points for yourselves. Let me say this and I hope you appreciate the point Mr. Bowden: IF the regime in Tehran agrees to ANY of what is demanded of it by the west, it will lose it supremacy and commit suicide. They do not believe in your culture of life; theirs is a culture of death...all or nothing. I suggest you read up a little about the nature of the regime with whom this dream of a diplomacy would work. If you do not begin to grasp the fact that the world is made up of different cultures, then you will end up looking like a typical cultural imperialist who is out to impose his will.
Posted 08:00 AM, 11/15/2009
Magistra
Mr. Sharifi, I think the point of the article is that the choice of using military force is pointless if it unites Iranians with their government against the invader. I think the solution here is simple. Let the Iranians themselves change their government. If the movement against Imadinnerjacket is for real, it should be encouraged. There is a long list of options we could use before we commit ourselves to bomb bomb bomb Iran. I don't think we should impose our culture on anyone either, and it would be nice if the favor is returned. Frankly, who wants it?
Posted 08:34 AM, 11/15/2009
James
There is a fallacy in the notion that if we negotiate, we will get something from Iran. We have gotten absolutely nothing of any value from Iran! In 30 years, Iran has reorganized its military structure to blunt the effects of a successful military coup against the government by putting in charge only those who support the government. Sanctions are parking tickets thrown away by a scofflaw. Maximum military force can deny Iran of the use of an air force, navy and army, thus leaving them with an insurgent force. The disputed nuclear facilities can be set back a decade or more to ensure that it will not be worth it from a monetary point of view to restart again. An aggressive air campaign along with dropping paratroopers to seize air bases in Iran will go a way toward destabilizing the Amadejadein government and giving the people a chance to revolt and reconstitute a new government giving them more personal freedom. Jimmy Carter was not much of a man and he was reviled by those in charge of the military as he chose not to go to war against Iran. He foreclosed on the option of seeking an declaration of war against Iran from Congress which would have enabled us to successfully prosecute the war by overthrowing the Khomeini regime. Yes, the 52 hostages would have died, but several thousands of our troops as well - all would have been declared as heroes and the ghosts of Vietnam vanquished in 1980 instead of Gulf War 1991. Use the masculine blue suited men of Strategic Air Command to clean out the vermin in Iran!
Posted 09:02 AM, 11/15/2009
nancee
Do we forget that this all started with our earlier intervention into Iranian politics––supporting the Shah? Most Americans knew nothing about our policies toward Iran until the hostage crisis, but I attended college in DC in the 1970s when Iranian students protested, wearing black hoods over their faces so they would not be identified and risk reprisal. More important it is time we accepted the fact that Pandora's box has been opened regarding nuclear weapons, and countries are understandably not ready to accept the US mandate on who can and who can't have these weapons (or for whom we will turn a blind eye, and for whom we won't). The only way to keep peace in a nuclear world is through diplomacy.
Posted 03:40 PM, 11/16/2009
pj katauskas
As always, another thoughtful and thought-provoking article. I do wonder, however, how much more plain "Iran's malice and defiance" can be. To even the casual observer, it is painfully plain. And our talk talk talking and allowing Iran to renege on its handshake deal to send uranium to Russia simply buys it more time. This may all be moot in any event. The measure of the effectiveness of our approach will be Israel's tolerance of it. At some point, Israel will feel compelled by self-preservation to wait no longer for diplomacy to work. I can't blame them.
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