Back Channels: Tax hikes may spur a blue-state revolt
Which of the following would fit comfortably into a conservative politician's platform?
a. Lower taxes on income, small businesses, and corporations.
b. Reduce spending.
c. Shrink government.
d. Limit state regulations and mandates.
e. None of the above.
If you buy the misleading arguments of Steve Lonegan about Chris Christie, his opponent in the Republican primary for New Jersey governor, your answer would have to be e. But you'd be wrong about Christie, and further wrong to believe that this is a dispute sure to sideline the eventual GOP nominee in the fall campaign against Gov. Corzine.
Lonegan, the former mayor of Bogota, has been challenging the conservative credentials of Christie for months. Yet Christie is for cutting taxes, spending, the size of state government, and the number of regulations and mandates that drive up costs - and property taxes - for municipalities and cities. He's pro-life, pro-gun, and anti-corruption, this last demonstrated during his seven years as U.S. attorney.
Despite these stands and his record, thanks to Lonegan's attacks, Christie's 20-point lead over his primary opponent slipped to about half that in recent polls.
So Christie fired back, in the debates that began last week, and with ads criticizing Lonegan's losing record at the polls - for state Senate, for Congress, for governor. Christie also points out that Lonegan's flat-tax plan, while cutting rates for some, would actually increase taxes in a recession - something that many conservatives criticize Corzine for proposing.
Well-known conservatives, including U.S. Rep. Chris Smith and publisher Steve Forbes, are backing Christie.
Bret Schundler, the former Jersey City mayor who was considered too conservative by some when he ran for governor in 2001 and 2005, remembers being called a "socialist" by Lonegan.
"Steve's strategy and approach and demeanor is not a winsome one," Schundler said in an interview. "Rather than argue the merits of a proposal, he attacks those who make the proposal, arguing we're not conservative."
One example from this race is Lonegan's complaint that Christie won't endorse a flat tax. While both Forbes and Schundler see potential long-term benefits to such a tax, they accept political and economic realities. As Schundler says, a flat tax may sound good, but raising taxes on many New Jerseyans is just not possible in the current economic climate.
"It can't politically happen when people can't afford a tax increase," Schundler says.
Clearly, there's a disagreement on this point and others, but both Christie and Lonegan are arguing from right of center on how to best cut taxes to spur economic growth. The GOP primary winner is going to be a conservative. The question then becomes, in the Age of Obama, is such a distinction the kiss of death?
Not necessarily. Christie has consistently led the increasingly unpopular Corzine in head-to-head polls. The lead is troubling enough, the New York Times reports, that the Democratic Governors Association plans to help Corzine, who gave the group $100,000 in 2007. The group will run ads designed to boost Lonegan, who is seen as the weaker general-election candidate.
So Lonegan isn't the only one feeling threatened by Christie's conservative message.
With good reason. Michael Franc, vice president of government relations at the Heritage Foundation, suggests that New Jersey has all the ingredients of what could be "the beginnings of a blue-state tax rebellion." Enormous debt. An inability to cut spending. Budget holes that even federal stimulus money can't fill. And an expectation that "the rich" can be taxed enough to make up the difference.
But here's the rub. Most of those considered "rich" aren't living off trust funds. They are often struggling two-income households. One earner might now be out of work. Savings have been depleted. What was once affordable - a hefty mortgage and private school or college tuitions - is now a burden. They supported the president and might want to help in a time of crisis. But President Obama isn't the only one who wants to raise their taxes. Corzine does, too. And that's before the bills come due for all the new spending on education, health care, and the environment. Before the shortfalls in Social Security and Medicare have been addressed. "The rich" will be hit up again and again, but even they can't pay for it all.
"If Democrats expand their definition of rich they will create problems for themselves," Franc says. "This will first show up in the blue states, because that's where the money is."
When those taxpayers have had enough - or hit what Franc calls the tipping point - a tax-cutting, pro-growth message might look like a reasonable alternative. And a liberal incumbent or two could get burned.
Contact Kevin Ferris at 215-854-5305 or kf@phillynews.com.











