In Lee, Phillies get the next best pitcher
SEATTLE - So you're feeling a little blue that the Phillies didn't get the Blue Jay.
Hey, it's understandable.
Toronto Blue Jays righthander Roy Halladay is that good, the best pitcher in baseball according to many executives, scouts, and players around the game.
Yeah, Halladay would have looked good in a Phillies uniform. Especially in October, when pitching rules.
But before you storm Citizens Bank Park waving torches and axes, remember this:
The Phillies didn't exactly come away with a fistful of laundry lint in opting not to meet Toronto's steep price for Halladay.
The Phillies wanted the Mercedes. The cost was too high for them. So they grabbed a Volvo in Cleveland lefty Cliff Lee.
"He's better than that," one rival executive said after the trade went down yesterday. "He's a BMW."
Does that sound OK?
"If Philly fans are disappointed with this guy, then they're spoiled," said an American League scout who has watched Lee pitch a couple of dozen times in person. "He's a real solid guy, someone you can rely on. He's very consistent, maybe not an ace, but a strong No. 2. On any club, he's one of your top two starters in October."
But can he be a difference-maker in October?
"Absolutely," the scout said.
October is what it's all about for these Phillies. They have the core talent to win the weak National League East going away. (If they don't, shame on them.) They have the core talent to win another World Series - this year and maybe next.
But they need another top starting pitcher to make it all work. There are no guarantees in sports, but Halladay in front of Cole Hamels figured to make the Phils scary in October.
The scare factor won't be as strong with Lee. But it would be wise to believe in him. He makes the Phillies' rotation better, just like Joe Blanton did last year, and Blanton was a major October contributor. Lee leads the AL in innings pitched this season, and that type of an innings horse will take pressure off the bullpen. He's 12-2 lifetime against NL teams.
Lee won't win 22 games this season, as he did in 2008, but his 7-9 record does not fully reflect the way he has pitched. He is 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in his last three starts. His 3.14 ERA is seventh-best in the AL, but the Indians have averaged just 3.9 runs in his starts.
Lee pitched eight shutout innings against Boston earlier this season and received a no-decision in an Indians loss. He lost to Detroit three times, pitching eight innings and giving up a run in one of the games and pitching seven innings and giving up three runs in the other two. He also suffered a loss against the Yankees while going six innings and allowing three runs.
Run support shouldn't be a problem for Lee in Philadelphia, where the Phils entered yesterday as the NL's only 500-run team. They had 537 (38 more than No. 2 Colorado) in 98 games for an average of 5.5 per game.
He might not be the pickup some fans - and scribes like this one - craved.
But he's pretty good just the same.
This is no safety school we're talking about.
This is a guy who beat out Halladay for last year's AL Cy Young award.
In examining this trade, the Phillies might not have made the popular decision, but they made a sound baseball decision. At $9 million next year, Lee has one of the best contracts in baseball. (That's what the Phils are paying Adam Eaton not to pitch this season.) His 2010 salary is almost $7 million less than Halladay's. That should allow the Phils to keep Blanton, who's due a raise from $5.475 million, next year. Hamels, Lee, Blanton - that's not a bad place to start next year.
And lest we forget, Kyle Drabek and J.A. Happ will be in the mix. The Phils picked up a frontline starter without giving up their best young arm in Drabek. They also kept Happ, who is essential to this year's team and beyond.
When Brett Myers went down in May, the Phils started looking for a starting pitcher. It was called general manager Ruben Amaro Jr.'s first big test. At the time, Halladay, Lee, and Houston's Roy Oswalt were considered elite possibilities, only none of them were available. At the same time, the Phils made pitchers Drabek, Jason Knapp, and outfielder Dominic Brown untouchable. Eventually, two of the elite possibilities became available, and Amaro got one of them while giving up just one of his untouchables, and that was Knapp, who is the furthest away. Drabek and Brown remain.
It's impossible to grade a trade right away. Games have to be played. Teams have to be measured in October. But early grades on Amaro's first big test have to be pretty high.
That's not to say the Phils didn't give up some nice pieces. Knapp is the kind of power arm you don't find every day. Infielder Jason Donald, catcher Lou Marson, and pitcher Carlos Carrasco will all be big-leaguers. But that trio ranked a notch down on the prospect ladder. There are questions whether Donald is an everyday player, questions about Marson's throwing arm, and questions about Carrasco's toughness. (The Phils had similar questions about Gavin Floyd and got burned.) Nonetheless, it was a high price to pay. But the Phils made a deal for a pitcher on their terms, not Toronto's.
They didn't get the Mercedes everyone wanted.
But Cliff Lee could provide a nice ride.
Contact staff writer Jim Salisbury at 215-854-4983 or jsalisbury@phillynews.com.




