In the seven suburban counties, combined net new-home sales were almost 38 percent lower than in the same months in 2007, according to data collected by Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, which tracks sales nationally. (There are no comparable new-home data for the city because Hanley Wood has been tracking Philadelphia sales for less than a year.)

Median sale prices for new homes in the seven counties - base prices minus the cost of builder incentives and buyer add-ons - declined 5.4 percent, the data show.

But Wayne Norris, Hanley Wood's regional sales director, cautioned that the price numbers could be misleading, since the decline probably represents more sales at the lower end of the new-home market - a positive sign, he said.

The drop can be explained "by first-time buyers' having no home to sell and benefiting from today's market without having to potentially settle for less," Norris said. It does not mean that higher-end houses are losing value - just that they are not selling as quickly or in quantity.

Sales of existing homes slowed in the first two months of this year compared with the same period in 2007, according to figures collected from Trend multiple listing service (MLS) and analyzed by Prudential Fox & Roach's HomExpert Market Report. In the eight-county region, the year-over-year sales decline was 22.5 percent for January and 40.2 percent for February, the data indicate.

Median sale prices were down 0.5 percent in February and 2.1 percent in January, the HomExpert data show. Days on market rose to 77 from 69 in January, and from 71 to 83 in February. Average monthly inventory of homes for sale was between 2.2 percent and 4 percent higher than last year, depending on the county.

Pending sales for February - contracts signed during the month that would close in 60 to 90 days - were about 41 percent lower than in February 2007, HomExpert reported yesterday.

Steve Storti, the company's senior vice president for marketing, said the region was in a "wait-and-see" mode and still adjusting to the effects of the mortgage crisis.

Early-year data are not accurate indicators of trends, economists say.

"It is too soon to really get a good handle," said Commerce Bancorp chief economist Joel F. Naroff. Two months' data, especially winter numbers, "are really too risky to draw any conclusion from."

January and February "are thin sales months," making it more difficult to interpret the numbers, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. Still, he added, "the suburban market is deflating, but not crashing."

Data for March sales will be available later this month.

Art Herling, regional vice president for Long & Foster Realtors, said that early March sales were slow, but that "the last two weeks are likely to be as good or better than March 2007."

Kevin Gillen, a research fellow at the Wharton School and vice president of Econsult, an economic-forecasting firm, said he was keeping an eye on inventory in the city's single-family home market, excluding condominiums.

"If it continues to rise through the spring, we could be in trouble," Gillen said. "By summer, I think we'll know if Philadelphia is going to have a hard or soft landing."

His crunching of city single-family sales numbers thus far, collected by Hallwatch.com, presents a picture that isn't altogether rosy:

Median price is down 20 percent from the summer 2007 peak, to $115,000 from $145,000. Prices are back to February 2006 levels, Gillen said. "That may sound awful, but that makes the year-over-year change zero, which is a lot better" than other cities.

Though listings declined to fewer than 10,000 in February, sales plunged to 900 - the lowest level since before the real estate boom began.

Average days-on-market exceeded 70 for the first time since 2004, Gillen said.

Some in the region have found that selling and buying aren't as difficult as the numbers might suggest.

For example, William and Gerry Marchetty had just finished having the Westmont home they had owned for 39 years reroofed and remodeled for their retirement when they accompanied friends to K. Hovnanian's active-adult community Four Seasons of Millville.

"As we headed to lunch, my husband said that this is something we should be doing, too," said Gerry Marchetty, 65. "Our friends did all this research for years, and we just decided to do it, just like that."

The couple sold their house in less than 60 days for $9,000 under the $349,900 list price. They bought the new house for $257,000. "I'm still kind of numb," Marchetty said of the turn of events.

Meanwhile, the state of the Center City condo market seems even less clear. Construction continues, and anecdotal evidence suggests that developers of already-built units are eager to negotiate price to move them.

But HomExpert reports that Center City condo sales were down 9.3 percent in January and February combined, compared to the first two months of 2007. While average time on the market rose to 108 days, the median sale price for condos rose 7.4 percent, to $363,250 from $338,150, boosted mostly by Rittenhouse Square units.

"It is extraordinarily difficult to divine where the condo market is at by the stats, because the amount of new construction is so large relative to the existing stock," said Gillen, who tracks condo sales separately. "Every time a new project is completed, it completely skews the stats."

But he added: "Only about 100 units changed hands in each month, which is about on par with last winter.

"Every condo developer I know is grumbling about the market," he said, "but not panicking."

Developer Tom Scannapieco, who is digging the foundation of his luxury high-rise 1706 Rittenhouse Square Street after several years of legal wrangling, isn't even grumbling.

"We have more interest at this particular moment than at any time since we announced our project," Scannapieco said. "The Philadelphia market is the Mike Schmidt of real estate markets - no highs, no lows. We miss all the booms and the busts."