The good news is that Berson, who considers himself an eternal pessimist, believes the recession will be "short and mild."

The Federal Reserve's "expansionary monetary policy will make it so," Berson said, because there can be a lag of six to 18 months before a change in monetary policy affects the economy.

"If the Fed didn't start easing [monetary policy] until August, there won't be positive benefits until the third quarter of 2008, although we'll see the economy accelerate some in the second half in response," he said.

Freddie Mac chief economist Frank Nothaft wasn't willing to commit to a nationwide recession yet, but he acknowledged that there was a strong risk of one, and that regions such as the Great Lakes, with a "lousy economy and no employment growth" were already deep in recession.

The trouble with announcing a recession is that "you never know until it's over, or even a year or two later, that we've had one," said David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders.

Seiders, too, was unwilling to commit, but he acknowledged that the "economy is weak, whether we are in a recession or at the brink. The housing market has been in a dramatic contraction that has been developing for at least the last two years, and that has put a heavy hit on total economic activity."

There will be slow growth in the first half of this year, Seiders said, "but I think we will avoid a formal recession."

Unless you ask specifically, those three don't mention Philadelphia often. At least Nothaft and Seiders are on the record as saying our metropolitan area hasn't suffered as much as others have. Seiders, a La Salle graduate, said this region probably will come back faster than places where prices rose to extreme heights and fell precipitously.

Already, there are signs of a comeback here. Real estate agents are reporting bidding wars in some desirable neighborhoods. Builder Chip Vaughan opened a development at Routes 352 and 296 in Chester County early this month - in the first two weekends, he said, 180 couples visited and nine left deposits on houses priced at $700,000.

And then there's the Al Heavens Market Indicator: I'm not having trouble finding "real" buyers for my stories. Not scientific, but it's making my job easier these days.

Seiders said that the Fed will be the key player, and that how aggressively it acts will determine how quickly the economy springs back.

"The biggest problem for the economy is in financial markets," he said. "The credit crunch is the big deal, triggered by the subprime debacle, and then cascading into the whole mortgage system. . . . Credit remains the biggest uncertainty in the overall economic forecast for everyone."

Once the economy and the housing market are back on track, will there be a repeat of the questionable lending practices of 2003-2005 that triggered the subprime crisis?

"Heck no," Seiders said.

"Heck no, now," Berson said. "Remember, this is a repeat of what happened in the late 1980s. Who knows whether this will happen 10 to 15 years down the road, with a new set of buyers?"

With subprime loans all but gone from the market, the three economists are predicting 30-year fixed rates of about 5.5 percent for the entire year, if, as Nothaft said, "you are a prime borrower, looking for a conforming . . . full-doc loan and have a down payment."

All three said the stimulus package signed by President Bush would have an impact, especially in the next three quarters. The increase in conforming-loan limits will help, though all expect a second stage of stimulus efforts, with Berson suggesting a repeat of the new-housing tax credits that moved properties quickly during the 1970s recession.

The unemployment rate in 2008? About 5.5 percent, all said. The growth rate? Two percent for the year.

"From an economist's view, that's not good, because you need at least 3 percent to create enough jobs to accommodate workforce growth," Berson said.